Tom Hancock
@tomhancock.bsky.social
China/economics etc, fmr Bloomberg/FT etc
There is a real policy debate going on in China about eggcessive egg capacity dimsums.blogspot.com/2025/07/exce...
July 18, 2025 at 5:46 PM
There is a real policy debate going on in China about eggcessive egg capacity dimsums.blogspot.com/2025/07/exce...
Were the banana wars and banana framework agreement all for nothing
June 8, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Were the banana wars and banana framework agreement all for nothing
A simple model of why China has a relatively high investment rate
June 7, 2025 at 10:12 AM
A simple model of why China has a relatively high investment rate
Carbon Monitor also estimates a drop in Chinese emissions in q1 carbonmonitor.org
May 15, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Carbon Monitor also estimates a drop in Chinese emissions in q1 carbonmonitor.org
Happened to be going through this today
May 14, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Happened to be going through this today
No clear relationship between US CA deficit and global dollar reserve accumulation
April 25, 2025 at 5:44 PM
No clear relationship between US CA deficit and global dollar reserve accumulation
Poetic estimate that the 145% on China would take US back exactly to the post Smoot-Hawley level of effective tariffs
April 11, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Poetic estimate that the 145% on China would take US back exactly to the post Smoot-Hawley level of effective tariffs
Journalists might want to try talking to Michael Swaine of the @quincyinst.bsky.social on patterns in China's strategic thinking quincyinst.org/research/avo...
April 11, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Journalists might want to try talking to Michael Swaine of the @quincyinst.bsky.social on patterns in China's strategic thinking quincyinst.org/research/avo...
Current account deficits are probably the result of a bunch of separate and interconnected factors (check out OECD's example below). Various monocausal explanations being sold as imbalances get politicized, would advise against buying into them
April 11, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Current account deficits are probably the result of a bunch of separate and interconnected factors (check out OECD's example below). Various monocausal explanations being sold as imbalances get politicized, would advise against buying into them
Chinese economist Xia Chun made a nice chart showing the lack of correlation between USD strength (blue line) and an enlarged current account deficit (orange line)
Instead the current account deficit tends to rise in periods when US economic growth outperforms major trading partners
Instead the current account deficit tends to rise in periods when US economic growth outperforms major trading partners
April 11, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Chinese economist Xia Chun made a nice chart showing the lack of correlation between USD strength (blue line) and an enlarged current account deficit (orange line)
Instead the current account deficit tends to rise in periods when US economic growth outperforms major trading partners
Instead the current account deficit tends to rise in periods when US economic growth outperforms major trading partners
US global favorability chart
April 10, 2025 at 2:18 AM
US global favorability chart
Morning Consult US consumer confidence survey update after liberation day
April 8, 2025 at 2:57 AM
Morning Consult US consumer confidence survey update after liberation day
Reminder: the PRC economy is not primarily dependent on net exports as a source of demand
April 7, 2025 at 3:59 AM
Reminder: the PRC economy is not primarily dependent on net exports as a source of demand
Worth watching this statement from Singapore's PM youtu.be/XrX7lIcZrbk?...
April 5, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Worth watching this statement from Singapore's PM youtu.be/XrX7lIcZrbk?...
Kindleberger's spiral coming to mind
April 4, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Kindleberger's spiral coming to mind
Estimate of the new US average tariff rate on Chinese goods exports, via Chad Bown of PIIE
April 4, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Estimate of the new US average tariff rate on Chinese goods exports, via Chad Bown of PIIE
Historic times for trade, literally
April 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Historic times for trade, literally
The coal share of China primary energy consumption has fallen nearly ten percentage points since 2016 - but remains above 50%
April 2, 2025 at 11:57 AM
The coal share of China primary energy consumption has fallen nearly ten percentage points since 2016 - but remains above 50%
Alternative headline, income for these groups highest since 2007
March 20, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Alternative headline, income for these groups highest since 2007
Time for a Mar-a-Lago Eggcord
March 17, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Time for a Mar-a-Lago Eggcord
Close to a million Chinese citizens live in Japan. via @nikkei-asia.com
March 16, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Close to a million Chinese citizens live in Japan. via @nikkei-asia.com
Already passed the 10th anniversary of this essay
March 13, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Already passed the 10th anniversary of this essay
Surely debatable to what extent British pre-financial crisis 'productivity' growth was just measuring the growth of the financial sector
March 13, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Surely debatable to what extent British pre-financial crisis 'productivity' growth was just measuring the growth of the financial sector