NDP has no leader, no money, no leverage and thus no coalition offer is pending.

To think back when Scheer (as incompetent as he is) narrowly won against Bernier and O'Leary (vastly more incompetent)? They had a competent, Michael Chong, on the ballot but only drew marginal support. As much as I disagree with Poilievre, he is better than anyone the CPC would consider.

I would say that the NDP are really only truly favoured to win 1 riding (Edmonton-Strathcona), but they are close enough in several that they are expected to win 3 or 4, I just don't know for sure which ones.

The new model is less blind to NDP-LPC swing votes, and between CPC-PPC. Generally, lost PPC votes are assumed to move to CPC, NDP to LPC. There is a lesser degree of LPC->CPC and CPC->LPC, as this bridge is often tougher to cross.

I took a deeper dive into AB which has the largest swing of votes in the country (generally from NDP->LPC). But, this created some anomalies, and decent models can vary in projections from 3 LPC seats to 10. The truth might be in the middle. There appears to be a lot of close ridings in Edm/Cgy.

My prior model was more simplistic using proportionality between 2021 results and regional polling splits from the prior week. (I would also normalize the results such that each riding's vote distribution adds up to 100%, and each party's vote % reconciles with the polling averages).

LPC: 198
CPC: 121
BQ: 19
NDP: 3
GRN: 1
IND: 1

Thanks!

Lib 206
Con: 119
BQ: 14
NDP: 3
Green: 1

I wonder that too, though our trade relationship with China is a bit strained with Chinese EV's and Canadian canola strapped with high tariffs. Carney is also indicating he is looking outside of China for trade partners. Can China withstand an international boycott?

Based on these, LPC majority if they get 38%. CPC majority if LPC drops below 35.5%. At 44%, LPC still in comfortable majority territory.

Only one candidate can be identified as Rhino on the ballot, but they all are.

They are all (or almost all) Rhino Party. They pick a riding every election, and flood their entire slate of candidates there. It's a nuisance, but won't impact the outcome. None of these candidates get double digit vote counts.

I haven't seen any economists touch on these questions yet. Usually more focused on how bad tariffs are in general. And I suspect these are difficult questions to answer.

Similar question for exports. With reciprocal tariffs on US goods, does that give Canada an edge on products we compete with the US on exporting?

Curious where this will all go.