Britain won't break up this side of 2030. You might well be right about the direction of travel, but your timetable is decades out and its because you're getting there by mixing useful analysis with what's essentially wishcasting.
Britain won't break up this side of 2030. You might well be right about the direction of travel, but your timetable is decades out and its because you're getting there by mixing useful analysis with what's essentially wishcasting.
For clarity my view is all is not well with the UK and while it could carry on like this for decades, another shock unpopular outside England could break it.
For clarity my view is all is not well with the UK and while it could carry on like this for decades, another shock unpopular outside England could break it.
That we'll probably have to keep raising it over the years to keep covering for long term disadvantage is true, but that's the thing. It's long term.
That we'll probably have to keep raising it over the years to keep covering for long term disadvantage is true, but that's the thing. It's long term.
Equally Farage falling short in '29 would leave it far more likely for the UK to muddle through to the mid 2030s at least, than to collapse next Tuesday or whatever.
Equally Farage falling short in '29 would leave it far more likely for the UK to muddle through to the mid 2030s at least, than to collapse next Tuesday or whatever.
I don't know if they're likely to do it in time for 2027, but I could see it happening sometime in the 30s.
I don't know if they're likely to do it in time for 2027, but I could see it happening sometime in the 30s.
I hope it happens, I think it'd be good for all Ireland and for England too. But one must stay grounded.
I hope it happens, I think it'd be good for all Ireland and for England too. But one must stay grounded.
Of course it's not guaranteed now and political choices to improve it can be made. But the past was bad, actually.
Of course it's not guaranteed now and political choices to improve it can be made. But the past was bad, actually.
Too flat-footed to have done it and blamed Trump, tariffs, etc, but there's always doing it and resigning.
Too flat-footed to have done it and blamed Trump, tariffs, etc, but there's always doing it and resigning.