There are at least 2 that come to mind:
LOTR: Rohirrim - budget $30m, (worldwide) box office $20m
The Fall (2006) - budget $30m, box office $4m
The Fall probably made a lot of the deficit back in disc sales and streaming, and Rohirrim seems to be doing okay there, as well. Both are incredible films!

The "3rd Audience" is particularly interesting to me. It is basically talking about people who cannot watch or attend races, but still follow teams in the IGPX. They "enjoy communicating with others about the IGPX." This show was made before SNS was a thing, so this is cool.

Yep, if they're willing to fork over the extra 20000 yen. It will only be available through My Nintendo. That also makes sense; brick-and-mortar stores can just keep things simple selling the cheaper Japan-only console that most people here will want

But, also, if it's $399, it'll be 60000 yen in Japan, which is literally double the price of the price of the Switch when it launched in Japan (30000 yen). There's no way they would do that to their home market. So my final prediction is it'll be $349 (and 50000 yen in Japan)

Well, Nintendo Music just released the soundtrack of the SNES F-Zero game a few hours ago, which is peculiar timing. Maybe the odds for at least an F-Zero GX NSO port just went up...?

3. The odds of any of these 3 things happening are extremely low. The only hope here is that because the distributor, Tripwire, hasn't announced the game's shutdown, despite it being in developmental limbo since November, it makes me think they're holding out for some big occasion like this

2. There's no reason they couldn't do this on the Switch 2, and at launch. They'll trickle games out, of course, like with the N64 library, but that'll start at least this year, if not at the same time as the console's launch with a few games