Caliii
@thecaliqueen.bsky.social
Finance, LGBTQ ally, dog dad, artist, brewer, longtime fan of nature
😳
“It better be different this time,” says B of A.
S&P 500 price/book ratio is a record 5.3x — driven by the AI boom, FX debasement and a retail generation chasing “wealth via stocks not real estate.”
S&P 500 price/book ratio is a record 5.3x — driven by the AI boom, FX debasement and a retail generation chasing “wealth via stocks not real estate.”
August 15, 2025 at 11:27 AM
😳
Reposted by Caliii
THIS IS HUGE! The FIRST 100% effective HIV PrEP drug, Lenacapavir, is APPROVED AND GOING GLOBAL. The makers are providing AFFORDABLE access to the drug in the United States AND beyond, signing ROYALTY-FREE licensing agreements with SIX generic manufacturers to produce AND supply it.
🧪🧵⬇️
🧪🧵⬇️
July 28, 2025 at 1:08 AM
THIS IS HUGE! The FIRST 100% effective HIV PrEP drug, Lenacapavir, is APPROVED AND GOING GLOBAL. The makers are providing AFFORDABLE access to the drug in the United States AND beyond, signing ROYALTY-FREE licensing agreements with SIX generic manufacturers to produce AND supply it.
🧪🧵⬇️
🧪🧵⬇️
Reposted by Caliii
I wrote this one year ago, on the first anniversary of my brother's passing. It's the only thing I've been able to write about it.
It's a bit heavy, so content warning for addiction, death, and related struggle.
niedermeyer.online/2024/05/09/g...
It's a bit heavy, so content warning for addiction, death, and related struggle.
niedermeyer.online/2024/05/09/g...
Get Clean
In loving memory of my little brother, 1992-2023.
niedermeyer.online
May 10, 2025 at 3:26 PM
I wrote this one year ago, on the first anniversary of my brother's passing. It's the only thing I've been able to write about it.
It's a bit heavy, so content warning for addiction, death, and related struggle.
niedermeyer.online/2024/05/09/g...
It's a bit heavy, so content warning for addiction, death, and related struggle.
niedermeyer.online/2024/05/09/g...
Reposted by Caliii
Wilkinson is really feeling his feelings these days
A colleague emailed me today to flag the fact that the superb Fourth Circuit Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson ended a quotidian insurance opinion with an unusually introspective conclusion.
April 24, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Wilkinson is really feeling his feelings these days
Reposted by Caliii
Reposted by Caliii
With all respect to the sanguine predictions from fellow economists: Standard quantitative trade models don’t seem to capture the loss of global public goods, such as the rules-based international order.
April 7, 2025 at 12:15 AM
With all respect to the sanguine predictions from fellow economists: Standard quantitative trade models don’t seem to capture the loss of global public goods, such as the rules-based international order.
Reposted by Caliii
No he didn't.
Cult-of-personality devotion requires pretending the pre-COVID economy was great, but it really wasn't.
2017-19 the economy was basically fine—neither great nor awful—and Trump's one big policy contribution was a big debt-financed stimulus that didn't stimulate, just stayed on trend.
Cult-of-personality devotion requires pretending the pre-COVID economy was great, but it really wasn't.
2017-19 the economy was basically fine—neither great nor awful—and Trump's one big policy contribution was a big debt-financed stimulus that didn't stimulate, just stayed on trend.
April 7, 2025 at 12:49 AM
No he didn't.
Cult-of-personality devotion requires pretending the pre-COVID economy was great, but it really wasn't.
2017-19 the economy was basically fine—neither great nor awful—and Trump's one big policy contribution was a big debt-financed stimulus that didn't stimulate, just stayed on trend.
Cult-of-personality devotion requires pretending the pre-COVID economy was great, but it really wasn't.
2017-19 the economy was basically fine—neither great nor awful—and Trump's one big policy contribution was a big debt-financed stimulus that didn't stimulate, just stayed on trend.
Reposted by Caliii
The dissonance created by this level of toxic positivity while US residents are being renditioned to labor camps without due process hits like a sonic boom of blithe ignorance.
March 20, 2025 at 2:03 AM
The dissonance created by this level of toxic positivity while US residents are being renditioned to labor camps without due process hits like a sonic boom of blithe ignorance.
Reposted by Caliii
The Trump tax plan only works by cutting public services.
This incredible visualization combines the potential tax cuts (which mostly go to the rich) and loss of services (mostly borne by the poor).
It is a giant wealth transfer from the poorest to the richest. budgetlab.yale.edu/news/250319/...
This incredible visualization combines the potential tax cuts (which mostly go to the rich) and loss of services (mostly borne by the poor).
It is a giant wealth transfer from the poorest to the richest. budgetlab.yale.edu/news/250319/...
March 19, 2025 at 3:21 PM
The Trump tax plan only works by cutting public services.
This incredible visualization combines the potential tax cuts (which mostly go to the rich) and loss of services (mostly borne by the poor).
It is a giant wealth transfer from the poorest to the richest. budgetlab.yale.edu/news/250319/...
This incredible visualization combines the potential tax cuts (which mostly go to the rich) and loss of services (mostly borne by the poor).
It is a giant wealth transfer from the poorest to the richest. budgetlab.yale.edu/news/250319/...
Reposted by Caliii
My pinned tweet works just fine
BofA fund manager survey: biggest drop in US equity allocation on record
March 18, 2025 at 10:46 AM
My pinned tweet works just fine
Damn, Travis brings it to bear here. Brilliant, and much appreciated. Some serious food for thought
One of the things I have been thinking about lately is how it’s very problematic to have ‘operators’ entering the political arena.
Operator is a term that gets thrown around in the business world and it’s more or less what I do for work.
1/
Operator is a term that gets thrown around in the business world and it’s more or less what I do for work.
1/
March 16, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Damn, Travis brings it to bear here. Brilliant, and much appreciated. Some serious food for thought
As always, a thorough and enlightening explication on this core issue. Always appreciate Michael’s work (with an obligatory h/t to Keith Bradsher, of course)
1/11
Good article by Keith Bradsher: "The Chinese government and the Communist Party jointly issued a lengthy list of planned initiatives on Sunday to get people to spend more, including larger pensions, better medical benefits and higher wages."
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/b...
Good article by Keith Bradsher: "The Chinese government and the Communist Party jointly issued a lengthy list of planned initiatives on Sunday to get people to spend more, including larger pensions, better medical benefits and higher wages."
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/b...
China Outlines Plan to Bolster Consumption in Face of Trump Tariffs
Beijing’s leaders are ordering fiscally strapped local governments to spend more to help workers, consumers and businesses.
www.nytimes.com
March 16, 2025 at 4:14 PM
As always, a thorough and enlightening explication on this core issue. Always appreciate Michael’s work (with an obligatory h/t to Keith Bradsher, of course)
Love this list
Okay I’ve been laughing about this for nearly an hour now so I’m going to sketch out my proposal for what a “radically center left” administration would look like in the U.S.
— All corporations must convert to B-Corps; corporate veil is subject to means testing.
1/
— All corporations must convert to B-Corps; corporate veil is subject to means testing.
1/
March 12, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Love this list
Reposted by Caliii
Happy International Women's day to all the incredible women fighting for our freedom on the front lines and every woman in the rear supporting the fight and donating towards victory.
You are all heroes, society will never forget your sacrifices.
You are all heroes, society will never forget your sacrifices.
March 8, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Happy International Women's day to all the incredible women fighting for our freedom on the front lines and every woman in the rear supporting the fight and donating towards victory.
You are all heroes, society will never forget your sacrifices.
You are all heroes, society will never forget your sacrifices.
Reposted by Caliii
This guy, @albertburneko.bsky.social, is a genius. Please read his brilliant article on Elon Musk's deranged and morally repugnant Mars colonisation schtick. defector.com/neither-elon...
Neither Elon Musk Nor Anybody Else Will Ever Colonize Mars | Defector
Mars does not have a magnetosphere. Any discussion of humans ever settling the red planet can stop right there, but of course it never does. Do you have a low-cost plan for, uh, creating a gigantic ac...
defector.com
March 7, 2025 at 9:05 AM
This guy, @albertburneko.bsky.social, is a genius. Please read his brilliant article on Elon Musk's deranged and morally repugnant Mars colonisation schtick. defector.com/neither-elon...
Reposted by Caliii
Vance knows nothing & has never been to Ukraine.
He is an idiot and should be treated as one.
Zelensky gets it just right.
He is an idiot and should be treated as one.
Zelensky gets it just right.
ZELENSKYY: Putin broke the ceasefire. What kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about?
VANCE: I think it's disrespectful to come into the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media
VANCE: I think it's disrespectful to come into the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media
March 1, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Vance knows nothing & has never been to Ukraine.
He is an idiot and should be treated as one.
Zelensky gets it just right.
He is an idiot and should be treated as one.
Zelensky gets it just right.
Reposted by Caliii
1/15
Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux argue that the US trade deficit doesn't matter because it is simply the flip side of foreign investment into productive facilities in the US, and these create jobs and economic value for the US.
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux argue that the US trade deficit doesn't matter because it is simply the flip side of foreign investment into productive facilities in the US, and these create jobs and economic value for the US.
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
Opinion | Trump’s Myth of the Trade Deficit
Economic growth depends on deregulation, tax cuts and the budget deficit, not on the balance of trade.
www.wsj.com
February 24, 2025 at 1:28 PM
1/15
Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux argue that the US trade deficit doesn't matter because it is simply the flip side of foreign investment into productive facilities in the US, and these create jobs and economic value for the US.
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux argue that the US trade deficit doesn't matter because it is simply the flip side of foreign investment into productive facilities in the US, and these create jobs and economic value for the US.
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
Reposted by Caliii
Brew a pot of coffee and enjoy this fascinating discussion between Paul Krugman and Jim Chanos. You will be smarter - and a better investor - for it.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
A Conversation with Jim Chanos
It’s the golden age of fraud, and other observations
paulkrugman.substack.com
February 22, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Brew a pot of coffee and enjoy this fascinating discussion between Paul Krugman and Jim Chanos. You will be smarter - and a better investor - for it.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
Reposted by Caliii
“.. even though Biden had a reputation for chilling M&A .., there were both a greater number of takeovers and a higher value of acquisitions .. during his time .. than there were in Trump’s first term — both on a total and an annual average basis.”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
February 21, 2025 at 3:22 PM
“.. even though Biden had a reputation for chilling M&A .., there were both a greater number of takeovers and a higher value of acquisitions .. during his time .. than there were in Trump’s first term — both on a total and an annual average basis.”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Reposted by Caliii
For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.
Here's each G7 country's cumulative increase in real GDP per capita, since just before the pandemic:
🇺🇸 +9.4%
🇮🇹 +6.5% (thru Q3)
🇯🇵 +3.1%
🇫🇷 +1.8% (thru Q3)
🇬🇧 -1.1%
🇩🇪 -1.9% (thru Q3)
🇨🇦 -2.0% (thru Q3)
🇺🇸 +9.4%
🇮🇹 +6.5% (thru Q3)
🇯🇵 +3.1%
🇫🇷 +1.8% (thru Q3)
🇬🇧 -1.1%
🇩🇪 -1.9% (thru Q3)
🇨🇦 -2.0% (thru Q3)
February 18, 2025 at 6:07 AM
For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.
Reposted by Caliii
The U.S. has a ~$28 trillion economy, 4% of the world’s population, >20% of the globe’s GDP, and >55% of the global market cap.
Economically speaking, America is ALREADY great.
Economically speaking, America is ALREADY great.
Risks & Opportunities of the New Administration
ritholtz.com/2025/02/risk...
ritholtz.com/2025/02/risk...
February 8, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The U.S. has a ~$28 trillion economy, 4% of the world’s population, >20% of the globe’s GDP, and >55% of the global market cap.
Economically speaking, America is ALREADY great.
Economically speaking, America is ALREADY great.
Reposted by Caliii
1. We cannot now rule out the possibility of systemic collapse in the United States. If Trump and Musk paralyse the federal government, this could trigger social, financial and industrial failures. Neither Trump nor his team know how to respond to such failures, which could snowball and converge. 🧵
February 6, 2025 at 8:58 AM
1. We cannot now rule out the possibility of systemic collapse in the United States. If Trump and Musk paralyse the federal government, this could trigger social, financial and industrial failures. Neither Trump nor his team know how to respond to such failures, which could snowball and converge. 🧵