People often say that being good at poker requires reading tells and psychological insight, but this is mostly false.

Poker AIs destroy humans despite not seeing physical tells, and with a very limited model of individual players.

@clearerthinking.bsky.social @spencrgreenberg.bsky.social

Why no polls in BlueSky?

Wondering if anyone on this site wants to comment on this from @ctulocal1.bsky.social

Most social scientists have never reflected on the epistemic virtues of forecasting.

NYC mayor race needs conditional prediction markets:

If [Mamdani / Cuomo] wins,
what results in 2026-2027?
- new housing starts
- population growth
- high net worth population change
- rent change
- student test scores
- crime
- police budget

@manifoldmarkets.bsky.social @metaculus.bsky.social

The amazing thing is how fast the cost of serving the same quality model is falling.

Impressive algorithmic and hardware improvements.

For those new to Superforecasting, looking for a good podcast introduction, you can find it here: @TomChivers @StuartJRitchie

Happy Canadian Thanksgiving!