Michael Tesler
@tesler.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science | UC-Irvine
New @goodauth.bsky.social on the big rise in Dems saying civil rights/liberties are the US's most important issue
More Ds say it’s the most important issue than inflation & econ combined
%Dem saying it’s MII = record %GOP who said immigration was MII in 2024
goodauthority.org/news/civil-r...
More Ds say it’s the most important issue than inflation & econ combined
%Dem saying it’s MII = record %GOP who said immigration was MII in 2024
goodauthority.org/news/civil-r...
August 28, 2025 at 5:55 PM
New @goodauth.bsky.social on the big rise in Dems saying civil rights/liberties are the US's most important issue
More Ds say it’s the most important issue than inflation & econ combined
%Dem saying it’s MII = record %GOP who said immigration was MII in 2024
goodauthority.org/news/civil-r...
More Ds say it’s the most important issue than inflation & econ combined
%Dem saying it’s MII = record %GOP who said immigration was MII in 2024
goodauthority.org/news/civil-r...
New @goodauth.bsky.social piece shows that ICE's popularity is plunging:
ICE's net favorability rating went from +15 in early February to -13 in late June.
And support for abolishing the agency altogether has surged since the election.
goodauthority.org/news/america...
ICE's net favorability rating went from +15 in early February to -13 in late June.
And support for abolishing the agency altogether has surged since the election.
goodauthority.org/news/america...
July 11, 2025 at 5:04 PM
New @goodauth.bsky.social piece shows that ICE's popularity is plunging:
ICE's net favorability rating went from +15 in early February to -13 in late June.
And support for abolishing the agency altogether has surged since the election.
goodauthority.org/news/america...
ICE's net favorability rating went from +15 in early February to -13 in late June.
And support for abolishing the agency altogether has surged since the election.
goodauthority.org/news/america...
Yup! Trump's net approval rating on immigration plummeted into negative territory when wrongful deportations were dominating the news; and it ticked up soon after the news cycle moved on from Abrego Garcia.
June 4, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Yup! Trump's net approval rating on immigration plummeted into negative territory when wrongful deportations were dominating the news; and it ticked up soon after the news cycle moved on from Abrego Garcia.
Trump's approval rating on immigration is underwater for first time in YouGov/Economist's weekly polling on his second term
Same poll shows only 28% say Abrego Garcia shouldn't be returned
This is precisely why Democrats should keep talking about immigration
Same poll shows only 28% say Abrego Garcia shouldn't be returned
This is precisely why Democrats should keep talking about immigration
April 23, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Trump's approval rating on immigration is underwater for first time in YouGov/Economist's weekly polling on his second term
Same poll shows only 28% say Abrego Garcia shouldn't be returned
This is precisely why Democrats should keep talking about immigration
Same poll shows only 28% say Abrego Garcia shouldn't be returned
This is precisely why Democrats should keep talking about immigration
Some strategists think advocating for immigrant rights will backfire on Dems
But this @goodauth.bsky.social piece explains why the unpopularity of wrongful detentions is particularly poised to produce a thermostatic backlash against Trump's immigration policies
goodauthority.org/news/why-dem...
But this @goodauth.bsky.social piece explains why the unpopularity of wrongful detentions is particularly poised to produce a thermostatic backlash against Trump's immigration policies
goodauthority.org/news/why-dem...
April 21, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Some strategists think advocating for immigrant rights will backfire on Dems
But this @goodauth.bsky.social piece explains why the unpopularity of wrongful detentions is particularly poised to produce a thermostatic backlash against Trump's immigration policies
goodauthority.org/news/why-dem...
But this @goodauth.bsky.social piece explains why the unpopularity of wrongful detentions is particularly poised to produce a thermostatic backlash against Trump's immigration policies
goodauthority.org/news/why-dem...
Much longer ongoing process, but Trump has completely realigned Dem and Republican views on foreign policy.
goodauthority.org/news/the-rem...
goodauthority.org/news/the-rem...
March 7, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Much longer ongoing process, but Trump has completely realigned Dem and Republican views on foreign policy.
goodauthority.org/news/the-rem...
goodauthority.org/news/the-rem...
Some strategists think Dems shouldn't defend USAID because foreign aid is unpopular
But this @goodauth.bsky.social piece shows strong support for many types of aid
Americans also dislike changes to status quo and are increasingly concerned about Musk's influence
goodauthority.org/news/how-dem...
But this @goodauth.bsky.social piece shows strong support for many types of aid
Americans also dislike changes to status quo and are increasingly concerned about Musk's influence
goodauthority.org/news/how-dem...
February 12, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Some strategists think Dems shouldn't defend USAID because foreign aid is unpopular
But this @goodauth.bsky.social piece shows strong support for many types of aid
Americans also dislike changes to status quo and are increasingly concerned about Musk's influence
goodauthority.org/news/how-dem...
But this @goodauth.bsky.social piece shows strong support for many types of aid
Americans also dislike changes to status quo and are increasingly concerned about Musk's influence
goodauthority.org/news/how-dem...
Two key takeaways from this @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Crystal Robertson
1) Sexism powerfully predicts which Black men shifted to Trump from 2020 to 2024
2) Black men with sexist attitudes had already swung towards Trump before Harris entered the race
goodauthority.org/news/sexism-...
1) Sexism powerfully predicts which Black men shifted to Trump from 2020 to 2024
2) Black men with sexist attitudes had already swung towards Trump before Harris entered the race
goodauthority.org/news/sexism-...
December 12, 2024 at 4:39 PM
Two key takeaways from this @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Crystal Robertson
1) Sexism powerfully predicts which Black men shifted to Trump from 2020 to 2024
2) Black men with sexist attitudes had already swung towards Trump before Harris entered the race
goodauthority.org/news/sexism-...
1) Sexism powerfully predicts which Black men shifted to Trump from 2020 to 2024
2) Black men with sexist attitudes had already swung towards Trump before Harris entered the race
goodauthority.org/news/sexism-...
And the share of Republicans who say the economy is getting worse is down 30-points since election.
today.yougov.com/topics/econo...
today.yougov.com/topics/econo...
November 21, 2024 at 7:38 PM
And the share of Republicans who say the economy is getting worse is down 30-points since election.
today.yougov.com/topics/econo...
today.yougov.com/topics/econo...
Trump's gains were heavily concentrated among the growing share of nonwhites with conservative immigration opinions.
November 21, 2024 at 4:20 PM
Trump's gains were heavily concentrated among the growing share of nonwhites with conservative immigration opinions.
Rightward shifts in immigration opinions under Biden provided Trump with a much larger reservoir of receptive nonwhite voters whom he could target with anti-immigrant appeals.
November 21, 2024 at 4:17 PM
Rightward shifts in immigration opinions under Biden provided Trump with a much larger reservoir of receptive nonwhite voters whom he could target with anti-immigrant appeals.
The share of Republicans who say that they’re worse off financially than they were a year ago is already down 15-points since the election.
November 20, 2024 at 3:56 PM
The share of Republicans who say that they’re worse off financially than they were a year ago is already down 15-points since the election.
Both factors are surely at play. But John Sides and I use panel data to show that shifts away from Dems among Latinos are concentrated among those who already had conservative views about race to begin with goodauthority.org/news/america...
November 8, 2024 at 8:12 PM
Both factors are surely at play. But John Sides and I use panel data to show that shifts away from Dems among Latinos are concentrated among those who already had conservative views about race to begin with goodauthority.org/news/america...
Drudge running with it.
September 13, 2024 at 10:38 PM
Drudge running with it.
This @goodauth.bsky.social graph helps explain the timing of RFK Jr’s Trump endorsement.
Republicans were turning on him, but now his GOP popularity has soared to new heights.
goodauthority.org/news/this-gr...
Republicans were turning on him, but now his GOP popularity has soared to new heights.
goodauthority.org/news/this-gr...
August 30, 2024 at 6:20 PM
This @goodauth.bsky.social graph helps explain the timing of RFK Jr’s Trump endorsement.
Republicans were turning on him, but now his GOP popularity has soared to new heights.
goodauthority.org/news/this-gr...
Republicans were turning on him, but now his GOP popularity has soared to new heights.
goodauthority.org/news/this-gr...
Democrats (and Oprah) should keep attacking JD Vance's views.
These @goodauth.bsky.social graphs show his positions on marriage, divorce, and children are both extremely unpopular and increasingly out of step with shifts in public opinion over the past decade.
goodauthority.org/news/jd-vanc...
These @goodauth.bsky.social graphs show his positions on marriage, divorce, and children are both extremely unpopular and increasingly out of step with shifts in public opinion over the past decade.
goodauthority.org/news/jd-vanc...
August 22, 2024 at 5:57 PM
Democrats (and Oprah) should keep attacking JD Vance's views.
These @goodauth.bsky.social graphs show his positions on marriage, divorce, and children are both extremely unpopular and increasingly out of step with shifts in public opinion over the past decade.
goodauthority.org/news/jd-vanc...
These @goodauth.bsky.social graphs show his positions on marriage, divorce, and children are both extremely unpopular and increasingly out of step with shifts in public opinion over the past decade.
goodauthority.org/news/jd-vanc...
Conservatives' matter of fact claims that it's antisemitic to pick Walz over Shapiro are another reminder that it's Trump, Fox News, and Republicans who are quickest to accuse others of prejudice these days.
See the data in this @goodauth.bsky.social piece: goodauthority.org/news/trump-v...
See the data in this @goodauth.bsky.social piece: goodauthority.org/news/trump-v...
August 6, 2024 at 6:25 PM
Conservatives' matter of fact claims that it's antisemitic to pick Walz over Shapiro are another reminder that it's Trump, Fox News, and Republicans who are quickest to accuse others of prejudice these days.
See the data in this @goodauth.bsky.social piece: goodauthority.org/news/trump-v...
See the data in this @goodauth.bsky.social piece: goodauthority.org/news/trump-v...
Yup! Your analysis definitely tracks with this graph of Civiqs daily tracking data from Samantha Canty and me, which shows a big age gap in Black support for Harris and Biden relative to Obama throughout the first two years of two years their administration.
July 31, 2024 at 5:51 PM
Yup! Your analysis definitely tracks with this graph of Civiqs daily tracking data from Samantha Canty and me, which shows a big age gap in Black support for Harris and Biden relative to Obama throughout the first two years of two years their administration.
This @goodauth.bsky.social graph shows why Elon Musk's politics are such a big problem for Tesla.
goodauthority.org/news/elon-mu...
goodauthority.org/news/elon-mu...
July 31, 2024 at 4:36 PM
This @goodauth.bsky.social graph shows why Elon Musk's politics are such a big problem for Tesla.
goodauthority.org/news/elon-mu...
goodauthority.org/news/elon-mu...
Conservatism is becoming increasingly synonymous with Trumpism in the minds of GOP voters.
First graph from new @goodauth.bsky.social piece: goodauthority.org/news/iowa-sh...
Second graph from 538 piece back in June: fivethirtyeight.com/features/tru...
First graph from new @goodauth.bsky.social piece: goodauthority.org/news/iowa-sh...
Second graph from 538 piece back in June: fivethirtyeight.com/features/tru...
January 17, 2024 at 4:54 PM
Conservatism is becoming increasingly synonymous with Trumpism in the minds of GOP voters.
First graph from new @goodauth.bsky.social piece: goodauthority.org/news/iowa-sh...
Second graph from 538 piece back in June: fivethirtyeight.com/features/tru...
First graph from new @goodauth.bsky.social piece: goodauthority.org/news/iowa-sh...
Second graph from 538 piece back in June: fivethirtyeight.com/features/tru...
What could this picture of me buried beneath a couch full of disobedient dogs possibly tell you about my political beliefs? Check out the data in this new @goodauth.bsky.social piece to find out.
goodauthority.org/news/the-pol...
goodauthority.org/news/the-pol...
October 11, 2023 at 7:10 PM
What could this picture of me buried beneath a couch full of disobedient dogs possibly tell you about my political beliefs? Check out the data in this new @goodauth.bsky.social piece to find out.
goodauthority.org/news/the-pol...
goodauthority.org/news/the-pol...
In fact, the more Democrats see of RFK Jr., the less they like him.
September 29, 2023 at 8:27 PM
In fact, the more Democrats see of RFK Jr., the less they like him.