My take-home is that decarbonization is happening, but it needs to be much more rapid. Alongside that, investment into #CDR/#mCDR must ramp up, but ONLY as a mitigation aid and not the solution. Ideally in nature-based methods to provide further co-benefits.

More at globalcarbonbudget.org

Carbon sequestration through re/afforestation has been growing, offsetting about two-thirds of the emissions from deforestation. However, deforestation and other land-use changes continue to be a significant source of emissions.

Land and ocean-based carbon sinks continue to absorb ~ 55% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions despite changing climate and El Niño events. These sinks, however, will be affected by climate change, with the ocean sink already affected by changing wind patterns and rising sea temperatures.

Economic growth with decreased fossil CO2 emissions was observed in 22 countries (including the US, UK and South Korea), showing the possibility of economic growth while decarbonizing.

Global total CO2 emissions have roughly plateaued in the past decade, meaning the rate of growth in emissions has slowed, which shows some progress has been made. However, emissions are still predicted to grow in 2024, when what we really need is reduction.

Fossil fuel emissions are expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024. This means we have yet to reach a global consumption peak. Fossil fuel continues to drive emissions, and we cannot progress meaningfully without transitioning away.

With a 50% chance, we have 6 years left before using up the remaining 1.5C budget. Even reaching net zero by 2040 would overshoot the remaining budget. The overshoot could be made up through removal, but the #CDR and #mCDR amounts are currently negligible.

The latest Global Carbon Budget was released last week by @gsiexeter.bsky.social. I wanted to share some findings I thought were important. It includes some positive notes for a domain that can (rightfully) often be filled with warnings. I'll start from the most to the least worst point. A 🧵