Scott Supak
@supak.com
“We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking.”
—Jacques-Yves Cousteau
Retired stage technician turned professional predictor of politics and climate on this pyretic planet. Supak.com
—Jacques-Yves Cousteau
Retired stage technician turned professional predictor of politics and climate on this pyretic planet. Supak.com
Reposted by Scott Supak
Mamdani, increasingly exasperated, takes his fourth 1am phone call from Trump this week. He asks who the main guy from Night Moves was and then they briefly discuss fondue. Trump recommends manhattan steakhouse that closed in 1998 and says goodnight.
November 22, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Mamdani, increasingly exasperated, takes his fourth 1am phone call from Trump this week. He asks who the main guy from Night Moves was and then they briefly discuss fondue. Trump recommends manhattan steakhouse that closed in 1998 and says goodnight.
Reposted by Scott Supak
Well well well if it isnt the Blowjob Brothers
November 14, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Well well well if it isnt the Blowjob Brothers
Reposted by Scott Supak
Reposted by Scott Supak
Donny had a 48% approval rating from his personal ass lickers at Spazmussen on Tuesday, and that's up to 51% today.
Calling it the dead Kirk bounce.
Calling it the dead Kirk bounce.
September 18, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Donny had a 48% approval rating from his personal ass lickers at Spazmussen on Tuesday, and that's up to 51% today.
Calling it the dead Kirk bounce.
Calling it the dead Kirk bounce.
Reposted by Scott Supak
This gets to something that as a former stand-up I recognized but couldn’t name. A 31 year old professional content creator baiting 19 year old amateurs into the format of his choice isn’t debate, it’s crowd work. It’s debate-shaped crowd work farmed for content.
One thing that I think some not-youngs forget (and is different from 20 years ago) is that Kirk used his ‘debates’ to generate video that could go viral and, to use an old phrase, catapult the propaganda. His debates weren’t in any way, shape, or form educational.
When Charlie Kirk, who put together lists of professors he didn't like so people could target & harass them, used the phrase "free speech", he used it in the same way creationists use "teach the controversy." For Kirk, it was just another way to bludgeon the left and also to promote his propaganda.
September 14, 2025 at 1:32 PM
This gets to something that as a former stand-up I recognized but couldn’t name. A 31 year old professional content creator baiting 19 year old amateurs into the format of his choice isn’t debate, it’s crowd work. It’s debate-shaped crowd work farmed for content.
Reposted by Scott Supak
Look, folks, SNEAKERS is in the LEVERAGE ancestors list. it’s a must see, and a true pleasure, unlike
some influences that are necessary for context but haven’t aged well.
some influences that are necessary for context but haven’t aged well.
I wrote about Robert Redford's environmentalism and, obviously, Sneakers.
Robert Redford, Environmentalism, and the Most Prescient Movie Ever Made
Hello, welcome to my relaunched newsletter, read more about the deal here and please subscribe!
Robert Redford died on Tuesday, at 89. You can head literally anywhere else to read full obituaries abo...
www.gravityisgone.com
September 16, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Look, folks, SNEAKERS is in the LEVERAGE ancestors list. it’s a must see, and a true pleasure, unlike
some influences that are necessary for context but haven’t aged well.
some influences that are necessary for context but haven’t aged well.
Reposted by Scott Supak
Charlie Kirk’s shooter was a 22 year old white cis man & 4chan groyper.
Charlie Kirk’s last words were “gang violence”. he was claiming Black people were inherently violent right before his life was ended by another white man.
Here is a description of Kirk’s terrorism by one of his many victims:
Charlie Kirk’s last words were “gang violence”. he was claiming Black people were inherently violent right before his life was ended by another white man.
Here is a description of Kirk’s terrorism by one of his many victims:
September 12, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Charlie Kirk’s shooter was a 22 year old white cis man & 4chan groyper.
Charlie Kirk’s last words were “gang violence”. he was claiming Black people were inherently violent right before his life was ended by another white man.
Here is a description of Kirk’s terrorism by one of his many victims:
Charlie Kirk’s last words were “gang violence”. he was claiming Black people were inherently violent right before his life was ended by another white man.
Here is a description of Kirk’s terrorism by one of his many victims:
Reposted by Scott Supak
He's so sad about his friend but only on one side of his face. The other side is all business.
September 11, 2025 at 4:11 PM
He's so sad about his friend but only on one side of his face. The other side is all business.
"3,000 kids basically watched somebody shot right in front of them, it's really traumatic."--Phil Lyman, Former Utah state representative
On average, ~500 people have been killed in non-college school shootings per decade since 2000, Phil, you insensitive sack of gun-worshipping shit.
On average, ~500 people have been killed in non-college school shootings per decade since 2000, Phil, you insensitive sack of gun-worshipping shit.
September 11, 2025 at 11:25 AM
"3,000 kids basically watched somebody shot right in front of them, it's really traumatic."--Phil Lyman, Former Utah state representative
On average, ~500 people have been killed in non-college school shootings per decade since 2000, Phil, you insensitive sack of gun-worshipping shit.
On average, ~500 people have been killed in non-college school shootings per decade since 2000, Phil, you insensitive sack of gun-worshipping shit.
Just when I was about to give up on karma...
September 10, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Just when I was about to give up on karma...
Reposted by Scott Supak
Climate skeptics have long been obsessed with corrections to temperature records for changes in measurement techniques and instruments over time.
But it turns out that if we just used the raw data we'd see more warming. My latest at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....
But it turns out that if we just used the raw data we'd see more warming. My latest at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....
September 8, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Climate skeptics have long been obsessed with corrections to temperature records for changes in measurement techniques and instruments over time.
But it turns out that if we just used the raw data we'd see more warming. My latest at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....
But it turns out that if we just used the raw data we'd see more warming. My latest at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....
Reposted by Scott Supak
"Among those detained were South Korean employees on business travel....
"The raid could raise concerns for South Korean companies that are sending personnel to the US and hiring locally."
It comes weeks after Hyundai pledged $26 billion in US investments.
Gift link ⬇️
www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...
"The raid could raise concerns for South Korean companies that are sending personnel to the US and hiring locally."
It comes weeks after Hyundai pledged $26 billion in US investments.
Gift link ⬇️
www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...
Hundreds Arrested in Immigration Raid at Hyundai Site in Georgia
South Korea said it had expressed concerns to the U.S. about the raid and that it was trying to secure the release of its citizens.
www.wsj.com
September 5, 2025 at 1:24 PM
"Among those detained were South Korean employees on business travel....
"The raid could raise concerns for South Korean companies that are sending personnel to the US and hiring locally."
It comes weeks after Hyundai pledged $26 billion in US investments.
Gift link ⬇️
www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...
"The raid could raise concerns for South Korean companies that are sending personnel to the US and hiring locally."
It comes weeks after Hyundai pledged $26 billion in US investments.
Gift link ⬇️
www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...
Reposted by Scott Supak
NEW RESULT: Democrats have flipped a state Senate in Iowa.
This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%.
This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%.
This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
August 27, 2025 at 1:35 AM
NEW RESULT: Democrats have flipped a state Senate in Iowa.
This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%.
This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%.
This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
Imagine firing an Emmy-award-winning team of data journalists.
smdh
smdh
Apparently this is for FiveThirtyEight's contributions to ABC News's election night coverage. Aaron Bycoffe, Tia Yang, @gelliottmorris.com, @galendruke.bsky.social, and Mary Radcliffe were all nominated as well! 🎉
August 6, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Imagine firing an Emmy-award-winning team of data journalists.
smdh
smdh
Reposted by Scott Supak
I'm putting together a team
July 30, 2025 at 6:15 PM
I'm putting together a team
Reposted by Scott Supak
"People take statistical agencies for granted. So they're easy to cut because there's no lobby or special interest group that's powerful enough to protect them."
- Ethan Harris, former head of global economic research at Bank of America
www.reuters.com/business/us-...
- Ethan Harris, former head of global economic research at Bank of America
www.reuters.com/business/us-...
US economic data quality a worry, authorities not acting urgently enough, experts say
Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.
www.reuters.com
July 25, 2025 at 12:43 PM
"People take statistical agencies for granted. So they're easy to cut because there's no lobby or special interest group that's powerful enough to protect them."
- Ethan Harris, former head of global economic research at Bank of America
www.reuters.com/business/us-...
- Ethan Harris, former head of global economic research at Bank of America
www.reuters.com/business/us-...
Reposted by Scott Supak
In prediction market parlance, Trump hired 3 chickenshit bullshitters who won't put money where their mouths are. I challenged Spencer to make a bet years ago, during the "plateau" that never happened, and he wouldn't do it.
Confirming
@maxinejoselow.bsky.social
's scoop: DOE has hired 3 prominent climate contrarian's, and mainstream climate scientists are worried about what's next... W/ @ellanilsen.bsky.social www.cnn.com/2025/07/08/c...
@maxinejoselow.bsky.social
's scoop: DOE has hired 3 prominent climate contrarian's, and mainstream climate scientists are worried about what's next... W/ @ellanilsen.bsky.social www.cnn.com/2025/07/08/c...
The Trump admin just hired 3 outspoken climate contrarians. Scientists are worried what comes next | CNN
The Trump admin just hired 3 outspoken climate contrarians. Scientists are worried what comes next
www.cnn.com
July 9, 2025 at 12:36 AM
In prediction market parlance, Trump hired 3 chickenshit bullshitters who won't put money where their mouths are. I challenged Spencer to make a bet years ago, during the "plateau" that never happened, and he wouldn't do it.
The Republican effort to cut spending by killing people continues unabated.
On the #TexasFloods, forecasters did well, but "we’re pushing our luck if we think the cuts to NOAA, which oversees the weather service, won’t cause a breakdown in our ability to get people out of harm’s way in the future," writes @drjeffmasters.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/07/cuts...
Cuts to NOAA increase the risk of deadly weather tragedies » Yale Climate Connections
The Trump administration's budget plan for 2026 would eliminate the lab that developed a key flash flooding tool.
yaleclimateconnections.org
July 7, 2025 at 10:40 PM
The Republican effort to cut spending by killing people continues unabated.
Reposted by Scott Supak
Apparently Texas sends mass “Blue Alerts” to phones every time a cop is in danger.
And a lot of people are so understandably sick of it that they’ve *turned emergency alerts off entirely*, meaning that they aren’t getting actually-useful notifications.
www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/f...
And a lot of people are so understandably sick of it that they’ve *turned emergency alerts off entirely*, meaning that they aren’t getting actually-useful notifications.
www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/f...
July 5, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Apparently Texas sends mass “Blue Alerts” to phones every time a cop is in danger.
And a lot of people are so understandably sick of it that they’ve *turned emergency alerts off entirely*, meaning that they aren’t getting actually-useful notifications.
www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/f...
And a lot of people are so understandably sick of it that they’ve *turned emergency alerts off entirely*, meaning that they aren’t getting actually-useful notifications.
www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/f...
Reposted by Scott Supak
To build further on Matt's excellent point, not all floods are created equal - yesterday's situation was an inherently low-predictability mesoscale flood, which is in stark contrast to higher predictability synoptically-forced floods. How do you explain that to the average person & elected official?
Based on some of the reactions and comments I am absorbing by average people and elected officials, I think there needs to be a serious explanation and lesson on what the limits of predictability are for floods like the one in Texas.
July 5, 2025 at 11:49 PM
To build further on Matt's excellent point, not all floods are created equal - yesterday's situation was an inherently low-predictability mesoscale flood, which is in stark contrast to higher predictability synoptically-forced floods. How do you explain that to the average person & elected official?
Reposted by Scott Supak
Reality is now so internet poisoned you cannot say true things without appearing insane. “The New York Times ran a hit piece on Zohran purely so a minor race science blogger could place insider trades on Polymarket” sounds like you are a schizophrenic but it is straightforwardly factual!
July 4, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Reality is now so internet poisoned you cannot say true things without appearing insane. “The New York Times ran a hit piece on Zohran purely so a minor race science blogger could place insider trades on Polymarket” sounds like you are a schizophrenic but it is straightforwardly factual!