Sebastian Trautmann
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strautmann.bsky.social
Sebastian Trautmann
@strautmann.bsky.social
1.4K followers 610 following 11 posts
Clinical Psychologist, Psychotherapist Professor @Medical School Hamburg
Interested in traumatic experiences, emotion regulation, psychotherapy research and research methods
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
statsepi.bsky.social
Nice one, from @drg.bsky.social and @jamesheathers.bsky.social

link.springer.com/article/10.1...
“Cake causes herpes?” - promiscuous dichotomisation induces false positives - BMC Medical Research Methodology
Background Continuous biomedical data is often dichotomized into two or more groups for analysis, despite long-standing warnings from statisticians that this constitutes bad practice. This dichotomisa...
link.springer.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
tam-pham.bsky.social
Heart rate variability (HRV) is one of the widely used physiological measures in psychophysiological research. But with over 100 indices to choose from, how do we know which ones to use?

In our latest paper, we take a data-driven approach to help answer this.

doi.org/10.1111/psyp...
1/
November 12, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
syeducation.bsky.social
A quick (1000 words) read to enjoy with your morning coffee or afternoon tea:

"Psychology wants to stay WEIRD, not go WILD"

Why hasn't psychology diversified it samples, methods, theories, etc.? Because it doesn't want to. osf.io/preprints/ps...
Screenshot of the article, "Psychology wants to stay WEIRD, not go WILD"
November 13, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
cellpress.bsky.social
The link between the gut #microbiome and autism is not backed by science, researchers say.

Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA

@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
First page of Opinion piece: "Conceptual and methodological flaws undermine claims of a link between the gut microbiome and autism"
November 13, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
jnfrltackett.bsky.social
Y'all. N>3,800. !!!!!!!

Goodness gracious.
psyarxivbot.bsky.social PsyArXivBot @psyarxivbot.bsky.social · 1d
When do interaction/moderation effects stabilize in linear regression?: https://osf.io/35t84
November 12, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
hansonmark.bsky.social
We wrote the Strain on scientific publishing to highlight the problems of time & trust. With a fantastic group of co-authors, we present The Drain of Scientific Publishing:

a 🧵 1/n

Drain: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Strain: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/...
Oligopoly: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/...
A table showing profit margins of major publishers. A snippet of text related to this table is below. 1. The four-fold drain 1.1 Money Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis, which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024 alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher (Elsevier) always over 37%. Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor & Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3 billion in that year. A figure detailing the drain on researcher time. 1. The four-fold drain 1.2 Time The number of papers published each year is growing faster than the scientific workforce, with the number of papers per researcher almost doubling between 1996 and 2022 (Figure 1A). This reflects the fact that publishers’ commercial desire to publish (sell) more material has aligned well with the competitive prestige culture in which publications help secure jobs, grants, promotions, and awards. To the extent that this growth is driven by a pressure for profit, rather than scholarly imperatives, it distorts the way researchers spend their time. The publishing system depends on unpaid reviewer labour, estimated to be over 130 million unpaid hours annually in 2020 alone (9). Researchers have complained about the demands of peer-review for decades, but the scale of the problem is now worse, with editors reporting widespread difficulties recruiting reviewers. The growth in publications involves not only the authors’ time, but that of academic editors and reviewers who are dealing with so many review demands. Even more seriously, the imperative to produce ever more articles reshapes the nature of scientific inquiry. Evidence across multiple fields shows that more papers result in ‘ossification’, not new ideas (10). It may seem paradoxical that more papers can slow progress until one considers how it affects researchers’ time. While rewards remain tied to volume, prestige, and impact of publications, researchers will be nudged away from riskier, local, interdisciplinary, and long-term work. The result is a treadmill of constant activity with limited progress whereas core scholarly practices – such as reading, reflecting and engaging with others’ contributions – is de-prioritized. What looks like productivity often masks intellectual exhaustion built on a demoralizing, narrowing scientific vision. A table of profit margins across industries. The section of text related to this table is below: 1. The four-fold drain 1.1 Money Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis, which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024 alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher (Elsevier) always over 37%. Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor & Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3 billion in that year. The costs of inaction are plain: wasted public funds, lost researcher time, compromised scientific integrity and eroded public trust. Today, the system rewards commercial publishers first, and science second. Without bold action from the funders we risk continuing to pour resources into a system that prioritizes profit over the advancement of scientific knowledge.
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
thementalelf.bsky.social
🌍 Alcohol causes 2.6 million premature deaths each year, yet remains the world’s favourite drug. 🍺

A major Lancet Public Health study shows most countries are far off WHO’s 2030 target to cut drinking by 20%.

🧵 THREAD

#PublicHealth #Addiction #AlcoholPolicy #GlobalHealth
November 13, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
lmu-klips.bsky.social
(1/11)
Do trauma-focused interventions change what we remember – or only how we remember it?
In her dissertation, @milenaaleksic.bsky.social explored this question through a series of experimental studies.
November 12, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
paolocrosetto.bsky.social
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.

It's *scientific publishing*.

We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...

Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 12, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
jlrohmann.bsky.social
BERLIN + CAUSAL GRAPHS = HAPPINESS.
Agree?
Follow: bsky.app/profile/appl...
Spoiler: Edition #3 in the making for Q2 2026! Stay tuned!
Applied Causal Graphs 2026 workshop teaser - stay tuned!
November 12, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
ploederl.bsky.social
Finally a study on the smallest worthwhile effect for psychotherapy to treat depression. Sobering.
joarhalvorsen.bsky.social Joar Øveraas Halvorsen @joarhalvorsen.bsky.social · 1d
If we provide people with moderate to severe depressive episodes with realistic and balanced information about the effects of psychotherapy, potential adverse effects, costs, and burdens, only one-third consider it worthwhile trying psychotherapy.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Estimating the smallest worthwhile difference of recommended psychotherapies for depression: observational study | The British Journal of Psychiatry | Cambridge Core
Estimating the smallest worthwhile difference of recommended psychotherapies for depression: observational study
www.cambridge.org
November 12, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
thementalelf.bsky.social
From sensitive screening to staff supervision, the message is simple: ⏱️ time matters.
Time to listen, time to process, time to reflect.

Read the blog to explore how perinatal services can make trauma-informed care a reality:
buff.ly/SheP8qa
November 12, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
ploederl.bsky.social
New method to estimate heterogeneity of treatment effects by comparing the cumulative response distributions for the treatment vs.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

@f2harrell.bsky.social @stephensenn.bsky.social
November 12, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
drstephcraig.bsky.social
Check out my lab member's entry to a CIHR IHDCYH short video competition.
Here is a short video on the rise of aggression from COVID: www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbv5...
Here is the link to vote (vote for Suzanna Dinh): cihr-irsc.gc.ca/e/54519.html
Why is There a Rise in Youth Aggression?
YouTube video by Suzanna D
www.youtube.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
eikofried.bsky.social
Four interesting methods & stats winter courses at Leiden University also open to researchers and PhD candidates who are not affiliated with us.

www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/social-be...
November 10, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
awaisaftab.bsky.social
The hardest, recurring psychological task of my life has been learning to accept the absurdity of existence, to see ambition and achievement for the false gods they are, and to understand, truly understand, how one can flourish in what looks, from the outside, like mediocrity.
November 9, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
lakens.bsky.social
My Shiny app containing 3530 Open Science blog posts discussing the replication crisis is updated - you can now use the SEARCH box. I fixed it as my new PhD Julia wanted to know who had called open scientists 'Methodological Terrorists' :) shiny.ieis.tue.nl/open_science...
Open Science Blog Browser
Open Science Blog Browser
shiny.ieis.tue.nl
November 8, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
p-hunermund.com
⏰ Last chance to register for #CDSM2025!

Don't miss your chance to join us Nov 12–13 for two days of talks & debates at the intersection of causality, data science & AI.

💻 Online | 🎟️ Free
👉 causalscience.org
November 8, 2025 at 9:05 AM
strautmann.bsky.social
Lottery before peer review is associated with increased female representation and reduced economic cost

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Lottery before peer review is associated with increased female representation and reduced estimated economic cost in a German funding line - Nature Communications
The authors show evidence from a German funding line that a lottery-first approach followed by peer review is accompanied by increased female representation both at the submission stage and among fund...
www.nature.com
November 7, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
katymilkman.bsky.social
Wouldn't it be great to gather top social science journal editors + experts on fraud-prevention to discuss better ways to fraud-proof our field @ the National Academies? This is happening! Step 1 is creating an organizing committee. Submit nominees by 11/7:
www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/enh...
www.nationalacademies.org
October 24, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
matti.vuorre.com
🎉 @rpsychologist.com 's PowerLMM.js is the online statistics application of the year 2025 🎉

powerlmmjs.rpsychologist.com

- Calculate power (etc) for multilevel models
- Examine effects of dropout and other important parameters
- Fast! (Instant results)
Screenshot of https://powerlmmjs.rpsychologist.com/
October 28, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
ehrenthal-lab.bsky.social
Ich freue mich auf unsere Klinische Vorlesung bei den 30. Psychotherapietagen NRW zur Behandlung von Persönlichkeiten, die morgen beginnt!
Poster 30. Psychotherapietage NRW Link zur Tagung: www.psychotherapietage-nrw.de Ausschnitt aus dem Programm: KV 3 Persönlichkeitsstörungen im ICD-11: Behandlung struktureller Störungen der Persönlichkeitsfunktion neu denken Ulrike Dinger-Ehrenthal, Düsseldorf Johannes C. Ehrenthal, Köln Aleksandra Kaurin, Wuppertal
October 29, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
tkaiser.science
Does changing the therapist and/or method after non-response lead to better outcomes? Not according to this RCT.
A randomized controlled trial testing the effects of sequential psychotherapy in depression: Changing therapist, or both therapist and method?
This study examined the effectiveness of sequential psychotherapy strategies for adults with major depressive disorder who did not respond to an initi…
www.sciencedirect.com
October 29, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
drjoehanson.bsky.social
When people learn with ChatGPT instead of following their own searches, they end up knowing less, caring less, and producing worse advice, even when the facts are the same.

Friction is an essential ingredient for learning! Convenience makes us shallow.

academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Experimental evidence of the effects of large language models versus web search on depth of learning
Abstract. The effects of using large language models (LLMs) versus traditional web search on depth of learning are explored. A theory is proposed that when
academic.oup.com
October 28, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Reposted by Sebastian Trautmann
causalab.bsky.social
Save the dates! 📌

CAUSALab's Summer Courses on Causal Inference return June 2026. Course information and registration details to be announced in the coming weeks.

Join our 2025-2026 listserv to receive updates first:
harvard.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_... #causalinference #epidemiology
Save the Dates - CAUSALab Summer Courses 2026. Week 1: June 8-12,2026. Week 2: June 15-18, 2026.
October 29, 2025 at 7:18 PM