steven langsford
@stevenldw.bsky.social
Wannabe cogsci nerd, half-decent translator, sometimes right way up
Reposted by steven langsford
Against my better instincts, I have written some notes on how human probability judgements work and what you should expect from surveys that ask people to guess what proportion of the population is transgender. I hope never to speak of this matter again
Some notes on probability judgement – Notes from a data witch
For the love of fuck, literally nobody thinks that 20% of the population is transgender. Please stop sharing that ridiculous YouGov statistic
blog.djnavarro.net
September 21, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Against my better instincts, I have written some notes on how human probability judgements work and what you should expect from surveys that ask people to guess what proportion of the population is transgender. I hope never to speak of this matter again
Runoff vote counting changes the whole ecosystem. It's not just that first choices get more expressive. it changes who can run because it's not terrible to have multiple similar candidates, and it changes how candidates talk about each other, since courting second preferences can be important
The American electorate notoriously is becoming less likely to vary which party they vote for, and votes based on culture wars / group affilliation. Australian voters have changed in the opposite way? I actually find that hard to believe. Please explain!
www.smh.com.au/national/the...
www.smh.com.au/national/the...
The science that could explain the federal election result
While commentary tends to focus on the day-to-day campaign, researchers say there’s long-term forces at play in how we vote.
www.smh.com.au
May 6, 2025 at 11:04 PM
Runoff vote counting changes the whole ecosystem. It's not just that first choices get more expressive. it changes who can run because it's not terrible to have multiple similar candidates, and it changes how candidates talk about each other, since courting second preferences can be important
Reposted by steven langsford
