Stephen Macedo
@stephenmacedo.bsky.social
Political Theory, Social Science, and Public Policy, Princeton University.
Trying to seek the truth, wherever it leads.
Trying to seek the truth, wherever it leads.
We stand by our guarded claim: much uncertainty remains, but Sweden appears to have done well compared with others. And so, given the absence of clear evidence that costly and harmful lockdowns reduced mortality, how can anyone confidently judge them a success? @chrislhayes.bsky.social
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
We stand by our guarded claim: much uncertainty remains, but Sweden appears to have done well compared with others. And so, given the absence of clear evidence that costly and harmful lockdowns reduced mortality, how can anyone confidently judge them a success? @chrislhayes.bsky.social
@michaelhobbes.bsky.social is also wrong to say that Swedish public health authorities concluded that their approach was mistaken. They said, with hindsight and more perfect information, they could have done better. No rational person would claim otherwise. @dbmain.bsky.social
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
@michaelhobbes.bsky.social is also wrong to say that Swedish public health authorities concluded that their approach was mistaken. They said, with hindsight and more perfect information, they could have done better. No rational person would claim otherwise. @dbmain.bsky.social
CDC mortality data presented in our book fails to show that US states with more stringent NPIs had lower Covid mortality. Bollyky, et al, using different data reach same conclusion (“Assessing COVID-19 Pandemic Policies,” Lancet 2023), as do Frances Lee and I, and Pizzato et al. See our Ch. 5
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
CDC mortality data presented in our book fails to show that US states with more stringent NPIs had lower Covid mortality. Bollyky, et al, using different data reach same conclusion (“Assessing COVID-19 Pandemic Policies,” Lancet 2023), as do Frances Lee and I, and Pizzato et al. See our Ch. 5
Contra @michaelhobbes.bsky.social the most comprehensive study so far finds Sweden had lowest excess mortality of all 29 countries of Europe over the whole course of pandemic, 2020-23, see Pizzato, et al., “Impact of COVID-19 on total excess mortality...,” Lancet Regional Health – Europe, 2024).
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Contra @michaelhobbes.bsky.social the most comprehensive study so far finds Sweden had lowest excess mortality of all 29 countries of Europe over the whole course of pandemic, 2020-23, see Pizzato, et al., “Impact of COVID-19 on total excess mortality...,” Lancet Regional Health – Europe, 2024).
data is from the UK Office of National Statistics. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Comparisons of all-cause mortality between European countries and regions
- Office for National Statistics
All-cause mortality rates of selected European countries and regions. Breakdowns include sex and broad age group for selected countries and cities.
www.ons.gov.uk
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
data is from the UK Office of National Statistics. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
See Figure 2, here,
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
See Figure 2, here,
Rather, “Covid 19 Lesson From Sweden,” Andersson and Jonung in Economic Affairs, Figure 2 shows excess mortality in Sweden running just around 2 percent lower than normal as of June 2021 and moving lower into 2022. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
The Covid‐19 lesson from Sweden: Don't lock down
Covid-19 triggered a wave of lockdowns across the world, contributing to a severe downturn in economic activity. Governments responded by introducing expansionary fiscal and monetary measures. We com...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Rather, “Covid 19 Lesson From Sweden,” Andersson and Jonung in Economic Affairs, Figure 2 shows excess mortality in Sweden running just around 2 percent lower than normal as of June 2021 and moving lower into 2022. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
The Kock et al study that Hobbes links could not possibly have been our source since its title is: “Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020.” “2020” period. Our quoted claim that Hobbes contests concerns excess mortality in Sweden from January 2020 to June 2021. @ericklinenberg.bsky.social
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
The Kock et al study that Hobbes links could not possibly have been our source since its title is: “Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020.” “2020” period. Our quoted claim that Hobbes contests concerns excess mortality in Sweden from January 2020 to June 2021. @ericklinenberg.bsky.social
@michaelhobbes.bsky.social claimed “Pretty egregious error" from our book: "The authors say Swedish deaths fell by 2.3% during the pandemic... But they misread their source: Mortality is only down if you remove the COVID deaths. research.abo.fi/ws/portalfil...” Sorry, but that's not our source.
https://research.abo.fi/ws/portalfil...”
July 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
@michaelhobbes.bsky.social claimed “Pretty egregious error" from our book: "The authors say Swedish deaths fell by 2.3% during the pandemic... But they misread their source: Mortality is only down if you remove the COVID deaths. research.abo.fi/ws/portalfil...” Sorry, but that's not our source.
Michael Hobbes is mistaken. The Kolk article he links to is not our source: we don’t cite it. It covers the wrong time period (2020 only). We do cite Johan Anderberg, The Herd, and he got the data from the UK Office for National Statistics. Why not check our footnotes?
June 8, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Michael Hobbes is mistaken. The Kolk article he links to is not our source: we don’t cite it. It covers the wrong time period (2020 only). We do cite Johan Anderberg, The Herd, and he got the data from the UK Office for National Statistics. Why not check our footnotes?