Stephen Hoopes
@stephenhoopes.bsky.social
Fantasy football writer and interception prop bets @4for4football.bsky.social. FSWA member. Data scientist. Goeh bherds 🦅
I wonder if Aaron Glenn doesn't want to be asked about his QBs because he knows Breece Hall is clearly his best option?
November 13, 2025 at 6:09 PM
I wonder if Aaron Glenn doesn't want to be asked about his QBs because he knows Breece Hall is clearly his best option?
I think a lot of it has to do with his air yards. Plummeted in recent weeks.
November 7, 2025 at 1:24 AM
I think a lot of it has to do with his air yards. Plummeted in recent weeks.
And the volume is tough for everyone involved. The Raiders are 28th in offensive plays per game. And that's partially because they're a bit slower than average in situation-neutral pace. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 8th in plays per game and have stolen the pace crown from the Saints and Rams.
November 6, 2025 at 8:47 PM
And the volume is tough for everyone involved. The Raiders are 28th in offensive plays per game. And that's partially because they're a bit slower than average in situation-neutral pace. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 8th in plays per game and have stolen the pace crown from the Saints and Rams.
Just like last year, the Raiders have the least-efficient rushing attack in the league. Ashton Jeanty is about average in yards after contact per attempt, but he's bottom-5 among in yards before contact. Dobbins gets a full yard more per attempt before contact.
November 6, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Just like last year, the Raiders have the least-efficient rushing attack in the league. Ashton Jeanty is about average in yards after contact per attempt, but he's bottom-5 among in yards before contact. Dobbins gets a full yard more per attempt before contact.
Geno Smith’s 0.28 EPA was good last week, but his 4.0-yard aDoT depth meant all of the efficiency came through receiver yards after the catch (welcome back, Bowers). Geno and Nix are two ships passing in the night on air yards. Geno only throws short the last 3 weeks and Nix only throws deep.
November 6, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Geno Smith’s 0.28 EPA was good last week, but his 4.0-yard aDoT depth meant all of the efficiency came through receiver yards after the catch (welcome back, Bowers). Geno and Nix are two ships passing in the night on air yards. Geno only throws short the last 3 weeks and Nix only throws deep.
Graphs for tonight! The season-long numbers look bleak for the Raiders. But, they're coming off a solid game last week, hitting a 51.5% success rate and 79th-percentile passing efficiency. They leaned heavily into the pass with an 11.6% pass rate over expected (PROE), and are average on the season.
November 6, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Graphs for tonight! The season-long numbers look bleak for the Raiders. But, they're coming off a solid game last week, hitting a 51.5% success rate and 79th-percentile passing efficiency. They leaned heavily into the pass with an 11.6% pass rate over expected (PROE), and are average on the season.
2 things I'm excited to see in the PHI/NYG game. NYG led the league in 2-TE dropbacks last week. And they're 2x as efficient compared to 1-TE DBs with Dart.
Hurts had 3 under-center play action DBs last week, compared to 4 total Weeks 1-6. He leads the league in efficiency (very small sample).
Hurts had 3 under-center play action DBs last week, compared to 4 total Weeks 1-6. He leads the league in efficiency (very small sample).
October 24, 2025 at 2:55 PM
2 things I'm excited to see in the PHI/NYG game. NYG led the league in 2-TE dropbacks last week. And they're 2x as efficient compared to 1-TE DBs with Dart.
Hurts had 3 under-center play action DBs last week, compared to 4 total Weeks 1-6. He leads the league in efficiency (very small sample).
Hurts had 3 under-center play action DBs last week, compared to 4 total Weeks 1-6. He leads the league in efficiency (very small sample).
And this is half-PPR, but Chase is still 8th overall in expected fantasy points per game, with 7 RBs ahead of him. This remains a tough year for true, difference-making WRs.
October 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
And this is half-PPR, but Chase is still 8th overall in expected fantasy points per game, with 7 RBs ahead of him. This remains a tough year for true, difference-making WRs.
After last night's insanity, and with Puka Nacua leaving early in Week 6, Ja'Marr Chase has retaken the expected fantasy point lead among WRs. A 23 (!) target game will certainly help with that.
October 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
After last night's insanity, and with Puka Nacua leaving early in Week 6, Ja'Marr Chase has retaken the expected fantasy point lead among WRs. A 23 (!) target game will certainly help with that.
KC reclaimed the pass rate over expectation (PROE) crown from LAC. There have been 9 instances of a team hitting at least 10% PROE this season, and KC has 3 of them. They're going to pass regardless, but especially this week with the Raiders' 6th-most-efficient run defense and Rashee Rice returning.
October 15, 2025 at 4:25 PM
KC reclaimed the pass rate over expectation (PROE) crown from LAC. There have been 9 instances of a team hitting at least 10% PROE this season, and KC has 3 of them. They're going to pass regardless, but especially this week with the Raiders' 6th-most-efficient run defense and Rashee Rice returning.
They already led the league in 2-TE sets. And then they juiced it up further in Week 5.
October 6, 2025 at 12:30 PM
They already led the league in 2-TE sets. And then they juiced it up further in Week 5.
For sure on Pollard. The rushing volume is fantastic. And the Colts defense is bad defending the run. It's just, will game script let the Titans run the ball? And will the Titans pass game be good enough for TD opportunities?
September 20, 2025 at 3:38 PM
For sure on Pollard. The rushing volume is fantastic. And the Colts defense is bad defending the run. It's just, will game script let the Titans run the ball? And will the Titans pass game be good enough for TD opportunities?
Close but I’d go Pickens. You’re just TD hunting and the game total and this Bears defense puts Pickens in a great spot.
September 20, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Close but I’d go Pickens. You’re just TD hunting and the game total and this Bears defense puts Pickens in a great spot.
The big surprise for the Giants was how Wan’Dale Robinson was used. The graph below shows the distribution of air yards for all of Robinson’s career receptions. The red area all the way to the right was entirely from last week. KC's opponents have opted to attack deep.
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The big surprise for the Giants was how Wan’Dale Robinson was used. The graph below shows the distribution of air yards for all of Robinson’s career receptions. The red area all the way to the right was entirely from last week. KC's opponents have opted to attack deep.
Trey Benson, not Marvin Harrison, was 2nd on the Cardinals in targets last week. Benson’s five targets came on only 16 routes, but that was still more routes than Conner because Benson is playing on 3rd downs and in two-minute drills. Pretty clear and hopefully still cheap trade target.
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Trey Benson, not Marvin Harrison, was 2nd on the Cardinals in targets last week. Benson’s five targets came on only 16 routes, but that was still more routes than Conner because Benson is playing on 3rd downs and in two-minute drills. Pretty clear and hopefully still cheap trade target.
There should be better days ahead for Omarion Hampton, but he’s 43rd out of 50 qualifying RBs in yards before contact per attempt at only 0.3 yards. That’s not a typo, with 65 of his 72 rushing yards this season coming after contact. C'mon Chargers run blocking!
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
There should be better days ahead for Omarion Hampton, but he’s 43rd out of 50 qualifying RBs in yards before contact per attempt at only 0.3 yards. That’s not a typo, with 65 of his 72 rushing yards this season coming after contact. C'mon Chargers run blocking!
I’m curious to see if the Patriots will mostly run the ball to the left side of the field like every other team in order to avoid TJ Watt. The Steelers have faced 45 runs to the left side of the formation according to SIS, with the next closest team only facing 31.
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
I’m curious to see if the Patriots will mostly run the ball to the left side of the field like every other team in order to avoid TJ Watt. The Steelers have faced 45 runs to the left side of the formation according to SIS, with the next closest team only facing 31.
WAS should be pass-heavy this week if Daniels plays. Teams pass on the Raiders at the highest rate in the league, as the Raiders have the most-efficient run defense in the NFL. Maxx Crosby was a terror, blowing up Omarion Hampton's runs from the opposite side of the field last week.
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
WAS should be pass-heavy this week if Daniels plays. Teams pass on the Raiders at the highest rate in the league, as the Raiders have the most-efficient run defense in the NFL. Maxx Crosby was a terror, blowing up Omarion Hampton's runs from the opposite side of the field last week.
The Titans have the least-efficient run defense in the league, giving up near 100th-percentile efficiency to the Rams in Week 2. They now face Jonathan Taylor.
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The Titans have the least-efficient run defense in the league, giving up near 100th-percentile efficiency to the Rams in Week 2. They now face Jonathan Taylor.
CLE is being propped up by their # of plays, as they’re 2nd in the league with 71.5 plays per game. They now play an elite GB defense. If the # of Browns’ offensive plays drops, then we have the 30th most-efficient offense against perhaps the best defense in the league with only 16.5 implied points.
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
CLE is being propped up by their # of plays, as they’re 2nd in the league with 71.5 plays per game. They now play an elite GB defense. If the # of Browns’ offensive plays drops, then we have the 30th most-efficient offense against perhaps the best defense in the league with only 16.5 implied points.
A few interesting things from this week's "Hoopes There It Is". The Ravens turned massively pass-heavy against the Browns run defense. Does GB do the same this week? I think we see some deep shots to Doubs, Golden, and Wicks with a more pass-heavy version of GB.
www.4for4.com/2025/w3/hoop...
www.4for4.com/2025/w3/hoop...
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
A few interesting things from this week's "Hoopes There It Is". The Ravens turned massively pass-heavy against the Browns run defense. Does GB do the same this week? I think we see some deep shots to Doubs, Golden, and Wicks with a more pass-heavy version of GB.
www.4for4.com/2025/w3/hoop...
www.4for4.com/2025/w3/hoop...
Because the Patriots' defense did that. Hard not to see this week as a referendum on the Dolphins' passing attack. Star CB Christian Gonzalez is ruled out again. We'll need the Dolphins to be much better than 29th in explosive pass rate this week. With the game total at 43.5, everyone is skeptical.
September 14, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Because the Patriots' defense did that. Hard not to see this week as a referendum on the Dolphins' passing attack. Star CB Christian Gonzalez is ruled out again. We'll need the Dolphins to be much better than 29th in explosive pass rate this week. With the game total at 43.5, everyone is skeptical.
Pretty excited for Dolphins/Patriots today. NE was 3rd in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) last week. And they face perhaps the worst unit in all of football this week; the Dolphins' secondary. And yet, that unit didn't give up the highest explosive pass rate last week...
September 14, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Pretty excited for Dolphins/Patriots today. NE was 3rd in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) last week. And they face perhaps the worst unit in all of football this week; the Dolphins' secondary. And yet, that unit didn't give up the highest explosive pass rate last week...
Kevin Patullo officially on watch today if we can't get anything going against that suspect Chiefs' secondary.
September 14, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Kevin Patullo officially on watch today if we can't get anything going against that suspect Chiefs' secondary.
Deebo's 10 targets dominated the team. But my main takeaway with WAS finishing average in pass efficiency was I wish Daniels had better skill players. Ekeler dominated the RB routes but Jacory Croskey-Merritt had the carry lead. A tough matchup on tap for Bill against a stout Packers’ run D.
September 10, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Deebo's 10 targets dominated the team. But my main takeaway with WAS finishing average in pass efficiency was I wish Daniels had better skill players. Ekeler dominated the RB routes but Jacory Croskey-Merritt had the carry lead. A tough matchup on tap for Bill against a stout Packers’ run D.