Stefan Herzog
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stefanherzog.bsky.social
Stefan Herzog
@stefanherzog.bsky.social
3.3K followers 1K following 190 posts
Senior Researcher @arc-mpib.bsky.social MaxPlanck @mpib-berlin.bsky.social, group leader #BOOSTING decisions: cognitive science, AI/collective intelligence, behavioral public policy, comput. social science, misinfo; stefanherzog.org scienceofboosting.org
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stefanherzog.bsky.social
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September 11, 2025 at 7:24 AM
stefanherzog.bsky.social
Brodeur, A., Lé, M., Sangnier, M., & Zylberberg, Y. (2016). Star Wars: The Empirics strike back. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(1), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150044 Using 50,000 tests published in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained solely by journals favoring rejection of the null hypothesis. We observe a two-humped camel shape with missing p-values between 0.25 and 0.10 that can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10–20 percent of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers inflate the value of just-rejected tests by choosing “significant” specifications. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics.
July 8, 2025 at 8:37 AM