I suppose part of it is timing. Virginia 12-18 months ago was viewed as a purple state with a razor thin Dem majority. Now it's viewed as a bluer state.

But also, Abigail's skills on the trail were well known, and her electoral record was unmatched by anyone in VA.

That was what the reports said.

But I never thought he would pull the trigger. It would mean Scott having a tough race with a late start, as his first seriously contested race in 30+ years.

I think Hampton Roads Dems just floated his name to tell Abigail "don't forget about us!"

That would mean finding someone who wanted to take on Abigail. No such person existed.

Spanberger isn't a veteran. She was CIA and federal law enforcement, but never in the military services. Maybe the same for the voters, but an important distinction.

I'm big on veteran candidates personally, but I do think the electoral effects are overrated.

I had a 6 page thread prepared for this but, it's complicated and past my knowledge.

"Mills Godwin means that Byrders just switched from Dems to the GOP" is an overstatement IMO. Both parties carried the legacy of Byrd guys and anti-Byrd guys, although maybe not to the same degrees.

The Byrd machine barred blacks and most poor whites from voting for 60-70 years. Urban and Appalachian whites could vote but were kept out of statewide power. Virginia had a smaller electorate (relative to population) than any other state.

It ended but the guys from that system carried on.

I mean yeah she's been doing that since her first campaign, when she said she wouldn't vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker.

Nancy was fine with it.

It's simply not effective, not in this time and place. Abigail dwarfed these Republican crowds over the weekend. Her approach is working, and the GOP appears overly sensitive and hysterical. It's an inverse of McDonnell 2009.

Maybe that harder edge is working in New Jersey though.

Spanberger and the electorate know that he cannot be arrested or prosecuted for those crimes by any state government.

That's why no candidate for governor or mayor, anywhere, is making "arrest Trump" a campaign focus.

Ping me if you see that happen in '26, because I'd be surprised.

Sometimes you can gin up a "controversy" out of nothing, but oftentimes it doesn't work. Winsome's effort to make swing voters care about trans issues is a big fat failure.

Will swing voters care about Jones? I think not.

Will GOP voters care enough to make it closer than it "should" be? Maybe.