America is great when kids can't play soccer because the secret police may steal their parents

That’s what drove me to always declare the method!

plot provided by @Chris_said

Major depressive episodes among US teenagers peaked in 2021 and have been declining since. More evidence challenging simplistic theories of teen mental health

I did not plan to read all 240 posts on observational evidence today. I did not WANT to read all 240 posts on observational evidence today. What did you do today? Sigh…

The trouble with being an #rstats celebrity is that everything you post about statistics will be taken veeeery seriously :-P

that seems like an odd design for an RCT (would it really be an RCT?). Do you have any real world examples in mind or were you just offering a thought experiment to challenge my (our?) assumptions?

If we distinguish along those lines, then ANCOVA is always preferred when we have a clear expectation the groups do not differ at baseline (eg RCT). Where I'm unclear is the observational case when groups may differ and we want to decide whether to equate differences with ANCOVA (or matching etc)

this would also help me understand @f2harrell.bsky.social position on this issue better. (Frank have you ever written anything on Lord's paradox I could read somewhere?)

(I actually thought the paper in the op was really helpful but found the more subtle logical inferences too difficult to follow)

I think someone posted earlier that medicine is concerned with the expected effect of an intervention in the population (so ANCOVA), while education/etc is concerned with compensatory effects among subgroups (so change scores). Would like to hear if that is explained somewhere

is there an easy distinction between the questions to help understand the differences here?

e.g., Does strength training compensate for differences between men and women? vs does training increase strength in men and women?

I'm trying to understand the wrinkles you mention here. Taking your off-the-cuff eg, using ANCOVA with baseline strength would potentially introduce regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects right? Because ANCOVA would compare post score strength in weak men to strong women... and so produce a biased ATE

That's a good point. However so far that has been mostly unsuccessful hasn't it? I recall it broke grok and they had roll back the changes...

how on earth does anyone search up for details for useR! ??? Google just returns a list of results about user groups etc...

Further evidence of my assertion that most of the useful information on the internet is still text. Just need a browser which presents text

statsepi.substack.com/p/a-brief-hi...

We constantly empower people that have no interest in the truth whatsoever and I struggle to understand what can be done about that.

The debate feels like a tv melodrama. Will they, won’t they? Oh they do! At last!! Oh no the old boyfriend has come back!!! What will happen next? Stay tuned readers