Advanced data already showed Americans were panic-importing goods in anticipation of Trump's tariffs in Jan—a trend that likely accelerated in Feb, and might continue to dominate Mar.

If these tariffs persist for any length of time, they will have massive negative impacts

The economy appears to be gagging on the uncertainty created by the haphazard economic policymaking happening in DC. Retail sales, manufacturing production, real consumer spending, home sales and most telling, consumer confidence, are all down meaningfully in the past month or two.

Much of the post-pandemic recovery in labor force participation has been driven by more women in the workforce - supported by workplace flexibility. Taking that away amid demographic pressures and potentially stricter immigration will only add further headwinds to labor dynamics going forward.

Excellent take on the economic implications of the recently announced tariffs

Very happy to share the results of my research endeavors at the Paris School of Economics under the supervision of Thomas Piketty this past year, examining racial/ethnic inequalities in the labor markets of France, Germany and the UK.

piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Mohamm...