Soeren Moerch
@smoerch.bsky.social
Emerging Markets debt & Fixed Income in general
Views my own
NOT investment advice
Views my own
NOT investment advice
Deep, deep respect from my side, great call & timing and I fully agree. Last week Argentina was screaming cheap, it is still very cheap. What would you rather own? Argentina 2030 @ 67 or also restructured bonds from Zambia 2033 @ 96 or Ghana 2029 @ 97. I know what bond do have best risk-reward …
September 22, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Deep, deep respect from my side, great call & timing and I fully agree. Last week Argentina was screaming cheap, it is still very cheap. What would you rather own? Argentina 2030 @ 67 or also restructured bonds from Zambia 2033 @ 96 or Ghana 2029 @ 97. I know what bond do have best risk-reward …
Angola 2048 @ 70.00 (you could easily have bought this lower yesterday) would yield a +27% return if yields fall from 13.6% to (still high) 12% in 12 months time.
Maybe Nvidia will yield the same or more, but probability weighted Angola is better. IMF deal, oil rebound, muddle through. Asymmetric
Maybe Nvidia will yield the same or more, but probability weighted Angola is better. IMF deal, oil rebound, muddle through. Asymmetric
April 17, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Angola 2048 @ 70.00 (you could easily have bought this lower yesterday) would yield a +27% return if yields fall from 13.6% to (still high) 12% in 12 months time.
Maybe Nvidia will yield the same or more, but probability weighted Angola is better. IMF deal, oil rebound, muddle through. Asymmetric
Maybe Nvidia will yield the same or more, but probability weighted Angola is better. IMF deal, oil rebound, muddle through. Asymmetric
My view
After being defensive for a long time, it is about to start buying EM risk again.
Why ?
1) USD FX is weaker
2) Curves are steeper
3) FED will cut (a lot more than you think)
All very different to 2022
After being defensive for a long time, it is about to start buying EM risk again.
Why ?
1) USD FX is weaker
2) Curves are steeper
3) FED will cut (a lot more than you think)
All very different to 2022
April 3, 2025 at 1:20 PM
My view
After being defensive for a long time, it is about to start buying EM risk again.
Why ?
1) USD FX is weaker
2) Curves are steeper
3) FED will cut (a lot more than you think)
All very different to 2022
After being defensive for a long time, it is about to start buying EM risk again.
Why ?
1) USD FX is weaker
2) Curves are steeper
3) FED will cut (a lot more than you think)
All very different to 2022
You are not alone … Colombia will be the trade of either 2025 and if not then 2026. Elsalv party is basically over, but who knows when Bukele will announce next tender and Colombia will issue another round of Eurobonds ?
January 24, 2025 at 5:03 PM
You are not alone … Colombia will be the trade of either 2025 and if not then 2026. Elsalv party is basically over, but who knows when Bukele will announce next tender and Colombia will issue another round of Eurobonds ?
Nigeria 2033 now at 9.33% and I still like it. Decent carry since last post. Nigeria now seems to have full market access. Will other African countries follow and issue into a hot EMD HY market ?
December 7, 2024 at 10:07 AM
Nigeria 2033 now at 9.33% and I still like it. Decent carry since last post. Nigeria now seems to have full market access. Will other African countries follow and issue into a hot EMD HY market ?
You can’t win ‘em all.
You are much, much more right than wrong overall, if you express a view, sometimes you are not right, better to have a view (and dare to say it) than no views.
You are much, much more right than wrong overall, if you express a view, sometimes you are not right, better to have a view (and dare to say it) than no views.
August 19, 2024 at 8:28 AM
You can’t win ‘em all.
You are much, much more right than wrong overall, if you express a view, sometimes you are not right, better to have a view (and dare to say it) than no views.
You are much, much more right than wrong overall, if you express a view, sometimes you are not right, better to have a view (and dare to say it) than no views.