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Sequence analysis helps distinguish temporary apathy from lasting disengagement, revealing whether political involvement is stable or precarious. Looking beyond short-term fluctuations puts trajectories in perspective, showing that delayed engagement can be very different from permanent withdrawal.

Sequence analysis is rarely used in political science so far and we extensively discuss its advantages and empirical application. Conventional methods either look at states (cross-sections), differences between time-points (fixed-effects), or mean development across time (growth curve models).

Finally, we show that parental (education and political interest) and individual level predictors (education, vocational training, social participation) predict the pathways to political involvement of adolescents.

Importantly, we find that these patterns already exist at an even younger age (age 11-15). This uncovers an underexplored section of adolescents who were involved in politics at the age of 11/12 but lost interest again by the age of 14/15 (so called “teen apathy”).

We then cluster these sequences into four typologies: stable apathy, stable involvement, late involvement, and independents.

In this paper, we use sequence analyses to identify prevailing trajectories of political involvement (and apathy) from adolescence to young adulthood in Germany and the United Kingdom. This figure shows the fluctuation of political apathy and involvement between age 17-25.

Check your mail.

The relationship between economic hardship and political violence is the focus on this note by @sjungkunz.bsky.social
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

This study suggests that the income gap in political participation cannot be fully understood without accounting for life cycle processes and genetic background.

Family fixed-effects models among early adults further show no significant effect of income differences on political interest after controlling for family background and genetic influences.

While 30–40% of the total variance in political interest of twin adolescents (age 10–18) can be attributed to genetic influences, a gene–environment interaction model shows that this share is much lower among poor compared to rich families.

This study investigates whether high parental income creates an enhancing environment that increases the influence of genetic dispositions on political interest using the German TwinLife study (2014–2020, age 10–29, n = 6,174).

@robfahey.net