Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦
@sixhobbits.bsky.social
Bootstrapping Ritza.co - a technical writing agency. Follow me for slightly cynical takes on tech and marketing.
I mainly use BlueSky to post about Eskom data and loadshedding. See Twitter.com/sixhobbits for startup/tech stuff.
I mainly use BlueSky to post about Eskom data and loadshedding. See Twitter.com/sixhobbits for startup/tech stuff.
not visible in the monthly graphs yet, but the other Koeberg unit is busy powering up again. AFAIK this is the end of the cycling/swopping of the two units for refurbishment and refuelling, so we should have both running simultaneously for the first time in years.
November 4, 2025 at 6:58 AM
not visible in the monthly graphs yet, but the other Koeberg unit is busy powering up again. AFAIK this is the end of the cycling/swopping of the two units for refurbishment and refuelling, so we should have both running simultaneously for the first time in years.
The big drop in supply and demand from last month was not a one-off.
November 4, 2025 at 6:56 AM
The big drop in supply and demand from last month was not a one-off.
Lowest imports, maybe ever?
November 4, 2025 at 6:55 AM
Lowest imports, maybe ever?
Using those diesel generators a bit more again as a result
November 4, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Using those diesel generators a bit more again as a result
Eskom data - October 2025
Not anything too interesting this month - EAF down again due to an increase in unplanned outages, but still 'ok' overall.
Not anything too interesting this month - EAF down again due to an increase in unplanned outages, but still 'ok' overall.
November 4, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Eskom data - October 2025
Not anything too interesting this month - EAF down again due to an increase in unplanned outages, but still 'ok' overall.
Not anything too interesting this month - EAF down again due to an increase in unplanned outages, but still 'ok' overall.
I'm not sure I totally understand each of these, but maybe it's because iOS includes transmission network faults.
The transmission network seems to be the bottleneck now instead of generation which everyone has been focusing on, as many people predicted?
The transmission network seems to be the bottleneck now instead of generation which everyone has been focusing on, as many people predicted?
October 3, 2025 at 7:29 AM
I'm not sure I totally understand each of these, but maybe it's because iOS includes transmission network faults.
The transmission network seems to be the bottleneck now instead of generation which everyone has been focusing on, as many people predicted?
The transmission network seems to be the bottleneck now instead of generation which everyone has been focusing on, as many people predicted?
but ILS (interruptible load shed) went down 🤔
October 3, 2025 at 7:27 AM
but ILS (interruptible load shed) went down 🤔
also weird, IOS (interruption of supply, a mechanism that lets Eskom cut off business users) went up a bit compared to last month.
October 3, 2025 at 7:27 AM
also weird, IOS (interruption of supply, a mechanism that lets Eskom cut off business users) went up a bit compared to last month.
Very low imports too. Is everything down.
Massive demand drop.
I need to go double check that I'm not missing data that causing this, because it looks sus.
Massive demand drop.
I need to go double check that I'm not missing data that causing this, because it looks sus.
October 3, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Very low imports too. Is everything down.
Massive demand drop.
I need to go double check that I'm not missing data that causing this, because it looks sus.
Massive demand drop.
I need to go double check that I'm not missing data that causing this, because it looks sus.
We're hardly using the OCGT backup generators any more, with very low average and max use (relatively speaking).
October 3, 2025 at 7:25 AM
We're hardly using the OCGT backup generators any more, with very low average and max use (relatively speaking).
I think the best EAF in september since 2018, top of the chart for my curve graphs as they don't go back that far.
October 3, 2025 at 7:23 AM
I think the best EAF in september since 2018, top of the chart for my curve graphs as they don't go back that far.
Eskom data - September 2025
Another dip in unplanned outages takes us close to 2020 levels!
Another dip in unplanned outages takes us close to 2020 levels!
October 3, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Eskom data - September 2025
Another dip in unplanned outages takes us close to 2020 levels!
Another dip in unplanned outages takes us close to 2020 levels!
I'm guessing that another bigger than (I) expected dip in demand is an important factor here. Generation is only slightly up year on year, but demand is way down.
September 15, 2025 at 11:28 AM
I'm guessing that another bigger than (I) expected dip in demand is an important factor here. Generation is only slightly up year on year, but demand is way down.
similar for diesel use, big improvement for the last few months, but similar to last winter.
September 15, 2025 at 11:27 AM
similar for diesel use, big improvement for the last few months, but similar to last winter.
EAF is up to best since July last year where it was slightly higher, but slightly better ratio of planned:unplanned since then so still a win.
September 15, 2025 at 11:25 AM
EAF is up to best since July last year where it was slightly higher, but slightly better ratio of planned:unplanned since then so still a win.
Eskom data - August 2025 (finally)
I finally got a reply to my data request for August data (usually takes a few hours / days, this time several weeks)
Metrics looking good compared to the last few months, but not that far off where we were a year ago.
Very nice dip in unplanned outages.
I finally got a reply to my data request for August data (usually takes a few hours / days, this time several weeks)
Metrics looking good compared to the last few months, but not that far off where we were a year ago.
Very nice dip in unplanned outages.
September 15, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Eskom data - August 2025 (finally)
I finally got a reply to my data request for August data (usually takes a few hours / days, this time several weeks)
Metrics looking good compared to the last few months, but not that far off where we were a year ago.
Very nice dip in unplanned outages.
I finally got a reply to my data request for August data (usually takes a few hours / days, this time several weeks)
Metrics looking good compared to the last few months, but not that far off where we were a year ago.
Very nice dip in unplanned outages.
Kinda interesting pattern in Demand vs Generation here - demand is still dropping, so either SA is having a sunny winter or private solar isn't as big a factor as I hypothesized before in reducing demand (maybe the economy is just that dead?)
Hopefully we can get back at least to 2024 levels soon
Hopefully we can get back at least to 2024 levels soon
August 4, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Kinda interesting pattern in Demand vs Generation here - demand is still dropping, so either SA is having a sunny winter or private solar isn't as big a factor as I hypothesized before in reducing demand (maybe the economy is just that dead?)
Hopefully we can get back at least to 2024 levels soon
Hopefully we can get back at least to 2024 levels soon
Thermal (coal) is looking really flat, so I'm not sure where all that extra availability is coming from. Maybe we have coal plants that are working but switched off? Not sure exactly how they calculate that re planned maintenance.
Nuclear is also flat so it's not that
Nuclear is also flat so it's not that
August 4, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Thermal (coal) is looking really flat, so I'm not sure where all that extra availability is coming from. Maybe we have coal plants that are working but switched off? Not sure exactly how they calculate that re planned maintenance.
Nuclear is also flat so it's not that
Nuclear is also flat so it's not that
Diesel use also looking better - lowest since November 2024, but still twice as high as July 2024.
And we're still using these things up to 3GW at peaks, so the max is still very high.
And we're still using these things up to 3GW at peaks, so the max is still very high.
August 4, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Diesel use also looking better - lowest since November 2024, but still twice as high as July 2024.
And we're still using these things up to 3GW at peaks, so the max is still very high.
And we're still using these things up to 3GW at peaks, so the max is still very high.
Eskom data - July 2025
Sorry I missed June, I was travelling.
July is looking positive! Big decrease in total loss, and this time it's in the good way (decrease in unplanned, increase in planned)
Sorry I missed June, I was travelling.
July is looking positive! Big decrease in total loss, and this time it's in the good way (decrease in unplanned, increase in planned)
August 4, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Eskom data - July 2025
Sorry I missed June, I was travelling.
July is looking positive! Big decrease in total loss, and this time it's in the good way (decrease in unplanned, increase in planned)
Sorry I missed June, I was travelling.
July is looking positive! Big decrease in total loss, and this time it's in the good way (decrease in unplanned, increase in planned)
Hidden here on the help page it mentions the pretty important distinction that you need Max to use Opus with Claude Code.
July 21, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Hidden here on the help page it mentions the pretty important distinction that you need Max to use Opus with Claude Code.
Based on reading other people's experiences, I _think_ that pro and max plan used to only be differentiated by use. (Max gets you more use than Pro).
Anthropic isn't transparent about
- How much use you get
- What models are available
Here: no mention of Sonnet vs Opus.
Anthropic isn't transparent about
- How much use you get
- What models are available
Here: no mention of Sonnet vs Opus.
July 21, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Based on reading other people's experiences, I _think_ that pro and max plan used to only be differentiated by use. (Max gets you more use than Pro).
Anthropic isn't transparent about
- How much use you get
- What models are available
Here: no mention of Sonnet vs Opus.
Anthropic isn't transparent about
- How much use you get
- What models are available
Here: no mention of Sonnet vs Opus.
Overall generation and demand is flat and the same as last year, so take your pick on whether the glass is currently half full or half empty I guess 🙃
June 3, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Overall generation and demand is flat and the same as last year, so take your pick on whether the glass is currently half full or half empty I guess 🙃
Exports up a bit - higher than May 2024, but still far below the November peak
June 3, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Exports up a bit - higher than May 2024, but still far below the November peak
Still using those diesel generators for generating up to 3GW during peaks, but on average looking better than the last two months.
June 3, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Still using those diesel generators for generating up to 3GW during peaks, but on average looking better than the last two months.