thats not a normal headline guys.
November 12, 2025 at 10:28 PM
thats not a normal headline guys.
that is rougly 200km from the Belgian Military Airport of Kleine Brogel that got visited by drones within roughly the same hour that Bremen airport got drones to that day
roughly sketched trajectory to both sites below.
roughly sketched trajectory to both sites below.
November 5, 2025 at 6:38 PM
that is rougly 200km from the Belgian Military Airport of Kleine Brogel that got visited by drones within roughly the same hour that Bremen airport got drones to that day
roughly sketched trajectory to both sites below.
roughly sketched trajectory to both sites below.
If russia has to halt the war in 2026 due to budgetary reasons;
It tries to capture Pokrovsk and Konstyantinivka before that.
This would allow a connected front line, a better situation to start the next phase of its invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, it is mobilising another 1000 000 soldiers.
It tries to capture Pokrovsk and Konstyantinivka before that.
This would allow a connected front line, a better situation to start the next phase of its invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, it is mobilising another 1000 000 soldiers.
November 4, 2025 at 5:07 AM
If russia has to halt the war in 2026 due to budgetary reasons;
It tries to capture Pokrovsk and Konstyantinivka before that.
This would allow a connected front line, a better situation to start the next phase of its invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, it is mobilising another 1000 000 soldiers.
It tries to capture Pokrovsk and Konstyantinivka before that.
This would allow a connected front line, a better situation to start the next phase of its invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, it is mobilising another 1000 000 soldiers.
here you can see the evolution of russia's yield curve.
It went down on the right side, the long end of the yield curve, in the past weeks.
This means lower long term interest rates in the russian markets, and gives more financial breathing room to the russian economy & government.
It went down on the right side, the long end of the yield curve, in the past weeks.
This means lower long term interest rates in the russian markets, and gives more financial breathing room to the russian economy & government.
October 27, 2025 at 3:42 PM
here you can see the evolution of russia's yield curve.
It went down on the right side, the long end of the yield curve, in the past weeks.
This means lower long term interest rates in the russian markets, and gives more financial breathing room to the russian economy & government.
It went down on the right side, the long end of the yield curve, in the past weeks.
This means lower long term interest rates in the russian markets, and gives more financial breathing room to the russian economy & government.
October 21, 2025 at 3:38 AM
the russian yield curve has inverted on the short end and dips on the long end ,compared to a month ago.
This means deflation expectations went up in the last month. Likely due Ukraine's kinetic sanctions and russian budget deficits.
Keep sanctions going ✊🇺🇦
This means deflation expectations went up in the last month. Likely due Ukraine's kinetic sanctions and russian budget deficits.
Keep sanctions going ✊🇺🇦
October 19, 2025 at 5:02 PM
the russian yield curve has inverted on the short end and dips on the long end ,compared to a month ago.
This means deflation expectations went up in the last month. Likely due Ukraine's kinetic sanctions and russian budget deficits.
Keep sanctions going ✊🇺🇦
This means deflation expectations went up in the last month. Likely due Ukraine's kinetic sanctions and russian budget deficits.
Keep sanctions going ✊🇺🇦
Reading about the 2008 GFC.
Little bit of digging and turns out the mortgage backed securities are still relevant to this day and a global market of 12 trillion dollars! (No typo)
The 30yr ones have been under water for years now, making them illiquid unless the holders want to endure a loss.
Little bit of digging and turns out the mortgage backed securities are still relevant to this day and a global market of 12 trillion dollars! (No typo)
The 30yr ones have been under water for years now, making them illiquid unless the holders want to endure a loss.
October 18, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Reading about the 2008 GFC.
Little bit of digging and turns out the mortgage backed securities are still relevant to this day and a global market of 12 trillion dollars! (No typo)
The 30yr ones have been under water for years now, making them illiquid unless the holders want to endure a loss.
Little bit of digging and turns out the mortgage backed securities are still relevant to this day and a global market of 12 trillion dollars! (No typo)
The 30yr ones have been under water for years now, making them illiquid unless the holders want to endure a loss.
October 17, 2025 at 4:20 PM
russian long term bond yields have dropped today, implying increased demand and deflation expectations going up significantly.
October 17, 2025 at 3:50 PM
russian long term bond yields have dropped today, implying increased demand and deflation expectations going up significantly.
russian yield curve today.
Inflation expectations long term went down, as deflation is now kicking in and investors flee into long term bonds , dropping rates on the right side of the curve.
Inflation expectations long term went down, as deflation is now kicking in and investors flee into long term bonds , dropping rates on the right side of the curve.
October 16, 2025 at 5:24 PM
russian yield curve today.
Inflation expectations long term went down, as deflation is now kicking in and investors flee into long term bonds , dropping rates on the right side of the curve.
Inflation expectations long term went down, as deflation is now kicking in and investors flee into long term bonds , dropping rates on the right side of the curve.
russia's yield curve has now almost inverted.
This phenomenon usually preludes a recession for about 6 months .
I'll keep an eye on it. If the right end of the curve goes below the left end, its economy is toast.
This phenomenon usually preludes a recession for about 6 months .
I'll keep an eye on it. If the right end of the curve goes below the left end, its economy is toast.
October 15, 2025 at 7:47 PM
russia's yield curve has now almost inverted.
This phenomenon usually preludes a recession for about 6 months .
I'll keep an eye on it. If the right end of the curve goes below the left end, its economy is toast.
This phenomenon usually preludes a recession for about 6 months .
I'll keep an eye on it. If the right end of the curve goes below the left end, its economy is toast.
russia's borrowing costs keep creeping up.
The entire yield curve now is 15%.
Half september this was only 14%.
The entire yield curve now is 15%.
Half september this was only 14%.
October 11, 2025 at 7:27 PM
russia's borrowing costs keep creeping up.
The entire yield curve now is 15%.
Half september this was only 14%.
The entire yield curve now is 15%.
Half september this was only 14%.
There is a reason why their yield curve is creeping up in the last month over its entire length and rates are kept at a 17%.
Also, inflation expectations for next year are estimated higher then today.
Also, inflation expectations for next year are estimated higher then today.
October 8, 2025 at 11:48 PM
There is a reason why their yield curve is creeping up in the last month over its entire length and rates are kept at a 17%.
Also, inflation expectations for next year are estimated higher then today.
Also, inflation expectations for next year are estimated higher then today.
the interest rates russia had to pay on its government's debt has been on the rise. Since mid septembre, it has nearly added 1% over the entire yield curve.
This is likely the reason russia did not lower rates below 17% on its new debt, as it even struggles to sell its new debt at that rate.
This is likely the reason russia did not lower rates below 17% on its new debt, as it even struggles to sell its new debt at that rate.
October 3, 2025 at 12:39 PM
the interest rates russia had to pay on its government's debt has been on the rise. Since mid septembre, it has nearly added 1% over the entire yield curve.
This is likely the reason russia did not lower rates below 17% on its new debt, as it even struggles to sell its new debt at that rate.
This is likely the reason russia did not lower rates below 17% on its new debt, as it even struggles to sell its new debt at that rate.
russian interest rates are rising.
Especially the longer duration ones. This means inflation expectations in the future went up.
Here's the chart of today vs 3 days ago:
Especially the longer duration ones. This means inflation expectations in the future went up.
Here's the chart of today vs 3 days ago:
September 17, 2025 at 6:46 PM
russian interest rates are rising.
Especially the longer duration ones. This means inflation expectations in the future went up.
Here's the chart of today vs 3 days ago:
Especially the longer duration ones. This means inflation expectations in the future went up.
Here's the chart of today vs 3 days ago:
this is the russian 2 year note rate. I took this one, but the story is similar for most maturities of russian debt instruments.
---
Starting around 8th of august 2025, yield are back going up.
Is roughly coincidences with the date Ukraine started its campaign on destroying russian refinaries.
---
Starting around 8th of august 2025, yield are back going up.
Is roughly coincidences with the date Ukraine started its campaign on destroying russian refinaries.
September 14, 2025 at 1:59 PM
this is the russian 2 year note rate. I took this one, but the story is similar for most maturities of russian debt instruments.
---
Starting around 8th of august 2025, yield are back going up.
Is roughly coincidences with the date Ukraine started its campaign on destroying russian refinaries.
---
Starting around 8th of august 2025, yield are back going up.
Is roughly coincidences with the date Ukraine started its campaign on destroying russian refinaries.
russia has mostly relied on short term debt to fund its war in Ukraine, at high interestbrates.
russia now has started to cut interest rates on the short end of the yield curve, signalling a serious shortage of funds to pay out even it short term obligations at high rates.
russia's yield curve:
russia now has started to cut interest rates on the short end of the yield curve, signalling a serious shortage of funds to pay out even it short term obligations at high rates.
russia's yield curve:
September 14, 2025 at 1:39 PM
russia has mostly relied on short term debt to fund its war in Ukraine, at high interestbrates.
russia now has started to cut interest rates on the short end of the yield curve, signalling a serious shortage of funds to pay out even it short term obligations at high rates.
russia's yield curve:
russia now has started to cut interest rates on the short end of the yield curve, signalling a serious shortage of funds to pay out even it short term obligations at high rates.
russia's yield curve:
A7A5 is a ruble backed crypto token, which through the Garantex and the follow up Grinex platform allows frozen asset settlement and shadow payments.
It allows russia to exchange ruble backed tokens against other backed tokens like Tether (USDT), thus allowing sanction evasion.
1/3
It allows russia to exchange ruble backed tokens against other backed tokens like Tether (USDT), thus allowing sanction evasion.
1/3
September 7, 2025 at 4:20 AM
A7A5 is a ruble backed crypto token, which through the Garantex and the follow up Grinex platform allows frozen asset settlement and shadow payments.
It allows russia to exchange ruble backed tokens against other backed tokens like Tether (USDT), thus allowing sanction evasion.
1/3
It allows russia to exchange ruble backed tokens against other backed tokens like Tether (USDT), thus allowing sanction evasion.
1/3
I found this graph. It shows the US government debt that is due.
Clearly the reason why Trump is trying to get rates down
Clearly the reason why Trump is trying to get rates down
May 16, 2025 at 2:51 AM
I found this graph. It shows the US government debt that is due.
Clearly the reason why Trump is trying to get rates down
Clearly the reason why Trump is trying to get rates down