Sebastian Deri
@sebastianderi.bsky.social
data, research, tech. once upon a time psychology
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Look. It would be great if there was one simple trick for winning elections. But 'just be more moderate' isn't it.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion
After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Look. It would be great if there was one simple trick for winning elections. But 'just be more moderate' isn't it.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Striking parallel between Trump and Liz Truss in terms of the power of economics/markets to turn even one’s own partisans against you.
Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc
Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc
April 4, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Striking parallel between Trump and Liz Truss in terms of the power of economics/markets to turn even one’s own partisans against you.
Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc
Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
6) Just 25% of US adults say they expect their finances to look better in five years than today.
That’s lower even than at the nadir of the Great Recession.
That’s lower even than at the nadir of the Great Recession.
April 4, 2025 at 12:51 PM
6) Just 25% of US adults say they expect their finances to look better in five years than today.
That’s lower even than at the nadir of the Great Recession.
That’s lower even than at the nadir of the Great Recession.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
they are not just ending careers with these layoffs, the functional result is going cauterize entire career *paths.* you cannot possibly overstate the damage these layoffs are doing to the ability for anyone to have a career of "being a scientist" in this country.
April 1, 2025 at 9:13 PM
they are not just ending careers with these layoffs, the functional result is going cauterize entire career *paths.* you cannot possibly overstate the damage these layoffs are doing to the ability for anyone to have a career of "being a scientist" in this country.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
👀 NEW ugly number for Trump (Gallup):
Approval on key issues sinking across board:
* -19 pts on being Putin’s puppet
* -18 pts on dealing w econ.
* -14 pts on dealing w Ukraine
* -13 pts on dealing w enviro issues
Trump’s disapproval rating (53%) is getting intense w 46% strongly disapproving.
Approval on key issues sinking across board:
* -19 pts on being Putin’s puppet
* -18 pts on dealing w econ.
* -14 pts on dealing w Ukraine
* -13 pts on dealing w enviro issues
Trump’s disapproval rating (53%) is getting intense w 46% strongly disapproving.
![Gallup poll screenshot:
Strength of Approval and Disapproval of Trump, by Political Party
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Do you [approve/disapprove] strongly or only moderately?
This chart presents survey results from March 3-16, 2025. The chart shows approval and disapproval ratings for how Donald Trump is handling his presidency, broken down by U.S. adults, Republicans, independents and Democrats. The approval and disapproval responses are categorized into strong approval, moderate approval, moderate disapproval, strong disapproval. Among U.S. adults, 32% strongly approve, 11% moderately approve, 7% moderately disapprove and 46% strongly disapprove. Republicans show high approval, with 78% strongly approving and 13% moderately approving, while only 3% strongly disapprove. Among independents, 20% strongly approve, 15% moderately approve, 11% moderately disapprove and 46% strongly disapprove. Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove, with 91% strongly disapproving.
Approve stronglyApprove moderatelyDisapprove moderatelyDisapprove strongly
No opinion
U.S. adults
32%
11%
7%
46%
Republicans
78%
13%
Independents
20%
15%
11%
46%
8%
Democrats
91%
March 3-16, 2025
Due to rounding, percentages may sum to 100% ±1 percentage point.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cf26plxwia7dxpm6plry3sj2/bafkreifl6ui5t5yshufipznrz36pm5somhrbg2tynkiths2ob3py2ekjru@jpeg)
March 28, 2025 at 2:49 PM
👀 NEW ugly number for Trump (Gallup):
Approval on key issues sinking across board:
* -19 pts on being Putin’s puppet
* -18 pts on dealing w econ.
* -14 pts on dealing w Ukraine
* -13 pts on dealing w enviro issues
Trump’s disapproval rating (53%) is getting intense w 46% strongly disapproving.
Approval on key issues sinking across board:
* -19 pts on being Putin’s puppet
* -18 pts on dealing w econ.
* -14 pts on dealing w Ukraine
* -13 pts on dealing w enviro issues
Trump’s disapproval rating (53%) is getting intense w 46% strongly disapproving.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Maybe take him at his word this time?
March 31, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Maybe take him at his word this time?
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Mocking people you arrest, using them as props for your social media content, celebrating with emojis when you kill civilians - it's all monstrous and fascist
March 27, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Mocking people you arrest, using them as props for your social media content, celebrating with emojis when you kill civilians - it's all monstrous and fascist
there should be a pulitzer prize category for transcendently clever meme usage in response to a news event. and this should win
March 26, 2025 at 6:08 AM
there should be a pulitzer prize category for transcendently clever meme usage in response to a news event. and this should win
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
To review what we from @washingtonpost.com are reporting out of the IRS today:
- Projected tax revenue this year is down 10% ($500 billion) as Trump's downsizing is emboldening tax cheats
- IRS is nearing an agreement with ICE to assist on mass deportations
- Projected tax revenue this year is down 10% ($500 billion) as Trump's downsizing is emboldening tax cheats
- IRS is nearing an agreement with ICE to assist on mass deportations
March 22, 2025 at 9:09 PM
To review what we from @washingtonpost.com are reporting out of the IRS today:
- Projected tax revenue this year is down 10% ($500 billion) as Trump's downsizing is emboldening tax cheats
- IRS is nearing an agreement with ICE to assist on mass deportations
- Projected tax revenue this year is down 10% ($500 billion) as Trump's downsizing is emboldening tax cheats
- IRS is nearing an agreement with ICE to assist on mass deportations
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Interesting example of different intuitions about effect sizes.
@davidshor.bsky.social, who has run a lot of randomized experiments:
"You say the 70 words to him and then ... there's a 2.5% change he changed his mind. I think that's incredible!"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx0J...
@davidshor.bsky.social, who has run a lot of randomized experiments:
"You say the 70 words to him and then ... there's a 2.5% change he changed his mind. I think that's incredible!"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx0J...
March 21, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Interesting example of different intuitions about effect sizes.
@davidshor.bsky.social, who has run a lot of randomized experiments:
"You say the 70 words to him and then ... there's a 2.5% change he changed his mind. I think that's incredible!"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx0J...
@davidshor.bsky.social, who has run a lot of randomized experiments:
"You say the 70 words to him and then ... there's a 2.5% change he changed his mind. I think that's incredible!"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx0J...
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
i feel like this is evidence for my view that people experience trump through a strong form of ironic detachment. they literally do not perceive him as real.
There’s gonna be so many variations on this theme over the next three years and eleven months. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
February 17, 2025 at 1:21 PM
i feel like this is evidence for my view that people experience trump through a strong form of ironic detachment. they literally do not perceive him as real.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Another way of saying this is that Trump’s claims are so extreme that even judges appointed by Republicans agree
As we show in a forthcoming JOP paper, this is an important signal to higher courts about the undelying merits of the claims
As we show in a forthcoming JOP paper, this is an important signal to higher courts about the undelying merits of the claims
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
March 18, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Another way of saying this is that Trump’s claims are so extreme that even judges appointed by Republicans agree
As we show in a forthcoming JOP paper, this is an important signal to higher courts about the undelying merits of the claims
As we show in a forthcoming JOP paper, this is an important signal to higher courts about the undelying merits of the claims
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
50 stations! 131 miles! No bathroom breaks?!
For the next 6-8 hours I’ll be attempting a BART Speedrun with @thebiscuitdan.bsky.social — riding @bart.gov nonstop until we cover every mile of track.
The official record is 5 hours 43 minutes.
Follow along!
🚇 💯
www.sfchronicle.com/totalsf/arti...
For the next 6-8 hours I’ll be attempting a BART Speedrun with @thebiscuitdan.bsky.social — riding @bart.gov nonstop until we cover every mile of track.
The official record is 5 hours 43 minutes.
Follow along!
🚇 💯
www.sfchronicle.com/totalsf/arti...
March 20, 2025 at 4:25 PM
50 stations! 131 miles! No bathroom breaks?!
For the next 6-8 hours I’ll be attempting a BART Speedrun with @thebiscuitdan.bsky.social — riding @bart.gov nonstop until we cover every mile of track.
The official record is 5 hours 43 minutes.
Follow along!
🚇 💯
www.sfchronicle.com/totalsf/arti...
For the next 6-8 hours I’ll be attempting a BART Speedrun with @thebiscuitdan.bsky.social — riding @bart.gov nonstop until we cover every mile of track.
The official record is 5 hours 43 minutes.
Follow along!
🚇 💯
www.sfchronicle.com/totalsf/arti...
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Been thinking about this graph a lot lately.
March 20, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Been thinking about this graph a lot lately.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
3/ I recommend not inferring any causal link between AI adoption and employment from this approach - none is implied, and I don't think the data warrant such an interpretation.
March 21, 2025 at 2:28 PM
3/ I recommend not inferring any causal link between AI adoption and employment from this approach - none is implied, and I don't think the data warrant such an interpretation.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Good time to reflect on all the ways the census race and ethnicity questions have changed over the years www.pewresearch.org/interactives...
What Census Calls Us
Explore the different race, ethnicity and origin categories used in the U.S. decennial census, from the first one in 1790 to the latest count in 2020.
www.pewresearch.org
March 29, 2024 at 2:49 PM
Good time to reflect on all the ways the census race and ethnicity questions have changed over the years www.pewresearch.org/interactives...
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Last year we encountered a strange glitch in one of our surveys…the word “yes” was being replaced with the word “forks” in response options. Read on to learn how we unraveled what was causing it, how we ensured it didn’t impact the data quality, and what to do if it happens to you!
How a glitch in an online survey replaced the word ‘yes’ with ‘forks’
Dating back to at least early 2023, a bizarre and alarming technical glitch started popping up in some organizations’ online surveys and forms.
www.pewresearch.org
March 21, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Last year we encountered a strange glitch in one of our surveys…the word “yes” was being replaced with the word “forks” in response options. Read on to learn how we unraveled what was causing it, how we ensured it didn’t impact the data quality, and what to do if it happens to you!
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
I spent a lot of time in my book breaking down WHY this is happening — it’s *content meets community*
- A lot of people don’t want “politics” or “news”, they want to be entertained…comedy, culture
- They want to feel like they’re listening to someone relatable, who talks like them, is like them.
- A lot of people don’t want “politics” or “news”, they want to be entertained…comedy, culture
- They want to feel like they’re listening to someone relatable, who talks like them, is like them.
As more and more Americans get their news from online shows and streamers, our analysis found that this expanding media ecosystem is overwhelmingly right-leaning. 🧵: www.mediamatters.org/google/right...
March 14, 2025 at 7:04 PM
I spent a lot of time in my book breaking down WHY this is happening — it’s *content meets community*
- A lot of people don’t want “politics” or “news”, they want to be entertained…comedy, culture
- They want to feel like they’re listening to someone relatable, who talks like them, is like them.
- A lot of people don’t want “politics” or “news”, they want to be entertained…comedy, culture
- They want to feel like they’re listening to someone relatable, who talks like them, is like them.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Looks like we're about to get new data about what happens to a modern economy when you dismantle the liberal democracy that enabled it.
But the cost seems too high, and we have examples already; Italy 1922, Germany 1933, France 1940, Chile 1973, or Hungary and Turkey in the 2010s.
But the cost seems too high, and we have examples already; Italy 1922, Germany 1933, France 1940, Chile 1973, or Hungary and Turkey in the 2010s.
March 19, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Looks like we're about to get new data about what happens to a modern economy when you dismantle the liberal democracy that enabled it.
But the cost seems too high, and we have examples already; Italy 1922, Germany 1933, France 1940, Chile 1973, or Hungary and Turkey in the 2010s.
But the cost seems too high, and we have examples already; Italy 1922, Germany 1933, France 1940, Chile 1973, or Hungary and Turkey in the 2010s.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics
We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretat
papers.ssrn.com
February 25, 2025 at 7:17 PM
After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
Since it apparently needs to be said: As a Jew who works on a university campus, I am safest in a country that protects academic freedom and liberal values of due process of law. Anyone who supports extrajudicial detention of students for "wrong" ideological opinions is not doing it for my safety.
March 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Since it apparently needs to be said: As a Jew who works on a university campus, I am safest in a country that protects academic freedom and liberal values of due process of law. Anyone who supports extrajudicial detention of students for "wrong" ideological opinions is not doing it for my safety.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is not the economy.
Nonetheless, holy shit.
What’s remarkable is that there’s hardly any real news driving this. It’s just investors belatedly realizing that Trump is who he is, and always was.
Nonetheless, holy shit.
What’s remarkable is that there’s hardly any real news driving this. It’s just investors belatedly realizing that Trump is who he is, and always was.
March 10, 2025 at 9:31 PM
The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is not the economy.
Nonetheless, holy shit.
What’s remarkable is that there’s hardly any real news driving this. It’s just investors belatedly realizing that Trump is who he is, and always was.
Nonetheless, holy shit.
What’s remarkable is that there’s hardly any real news driving this. It’s just investors belatedly realizing that Trump is who he is, and always was.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
“Frightened for the safety of their families.”
America, 2025.
America, 2025.
March 8, 2025 at 1:02 PM
“Frightened for the safety of their families.”
America, 2025.
America, 2025.
Reposted by Sebastian Deri
What he said about Social Security payments has been repeatedly debunked - so the question isn’t whether he’s lying about this, the question is why.
What is this a pretext for? He and the GOP have long shown interest in going after Social Security. What are they going to try?
What is this a pretext for? He and the GOP have long shown interest in going after Social Security. What are they going to try?
March 5, 2025 at 3:09 AM
What he said about Social Security payments has been repeatedly debunked - so the question isn’t whether he’s lying about this, the question is why.
What is this a pretext for? He and the GOP have long shown interest in going after Social Security. What are they going to try?
What is this a pretext for? He and the GOP have long shown interest in going after Social Security. What are they going to try?