Scottish Election Study
@scotvoting.bsky.social
Finally, while the salience of independence continues to fall, #indyref2 views remain closely divided and seemingly won't budge 🏴⚖️🇬🇧
Opinions are incredibly polarised across age groups, and the working-age population aren't turning against it even with a @teamlabouruk.bsky.social govt. in London 👀
Opinions are incredibly polarised across age groups, and the working-age population aren't turning against it even with a @teamlabouruk.bsky.social govt. in London 👀
July 25, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Finally, while the salience of independence continues to fall, #indyref2 views remain closely divided and seemingly won't budge 🏴⚖️🇬🇧
Opinions are incredibly polarised across age groups, and the working-age population aren't turning against it even with a @teamlabouruk.bsky.social govt. in London 👀
Opinions are incredibly polarised across age groups, and the working-age population aren't turning against it even with a @teamlabouruk.bsky.social govt. in London 👀
Vote intention is stabilising ahead of 2026 🗳️
@reformukscotland.bsky.social's rapid increase has plateaued and @snp.org remain on ~30% 🤷🏻
But @scottishlabour.bsky.social need to close the gap again if they hope to make @anassarwar.bsky.social FM 🌹
@scottories.bsky.social struggles persist 🤒
@reformukscotland.bsky.social's rapid increase has plateaued and @snp.org remain on ~30% 🤷🏻
But @scottishlabour.bsky.social need to close the gap again if they hope to make @anassarwar.bsky.social FM 🌹
@scottories.bsky.social struggles persist 🤒
July 25, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Vote intention is stabilising ahead of 2026 🗳️
@reformukscotland.bsky.social's rapid increase has plateaued and @snp.org remain on ~30% 🤷🏻
But @scottishlabour.bsky.social need to close the gap again if they hope to make @anassarwar.bsky.social FM 🌹
@scottories.bsky.social struggles persist 🤒
@reformukscotland.bsky.social's rapid increase has plateaued and @snp.org remain on ~30% 🤷🏻
But @scottishlabour.bsky.social need to close the gap again if they hope to make @anassarwar.bsky.social FM 🌹
@scottories.bsky.social struggles persist 🤒
On issues, the constitutional question has substantially declined in relevance in the last couple of years 🪧
Scots remain overwhelmingly preoccupied with the state of the economy, the health service, education and increasingly immigration and housing 🏗️
Scots remain overwhelmingly preoccupied with the state of the economy, the health service, education and increasingly immigration and housing 🏗️
July 25, 2025 at 10:46 AM
On issues, the constitutional question has substantially declined in relevance in the last couple of years 🪧
Scots remain overwhelmingly preoccupied with the state of the economy, the health service, education and increasingly immigration and housing 🏗️
Scots remain overwhelmingly preoccupied with the state of the economy, the health service, education and increasingly immigration and housing 🏗️
Government performance evaluations are similar. First Minister @johnswinney.bsky.social seems to have arrested but not reversed the decline 🫷🏻
Meanwhile, views of the newish
@10dowingstreet.bsky.social have only improved marginally over its predecessor 🚪
Meanwhile, views of the newish
@10dowingstreet.bsky.social have only improved marginally over its predecessor 🚪
July 25, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Government performance evaluations are similar. First Minister @johnswinney.bsky.social seems to have arrested but not reversed the decline 🫷🏻
Meanwhile, views of the newish
@10dowingstreet.bsky.social have only improved marginally over its predecessor 🚪
Meanwhile, views of the newish
@10dowingstreet.bsky.social have only improved marginally over its predecessor 🚪
Scots have become significantly more pessimistic about the country's direction since covid, but attitudes seem to have stabilised over the past year 🥱
July 25, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Scots have become significantly more pessimistic about the country's direction since covid, but attitudes seem to have stabilised over the past year 🥱
🍦Big Scoop tracker update 📊
We've fully updated our handy page of time series public opinion measures, added new visualisations and made it much easier to find.
And we've renamed it the SES Opinion Dashboard 🏴🧑🏽🤝🧑🏻
Summary 🧵
scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
We've fully updated our handy page of time series public opinion measures, added new visualisations and made it much easier to find.
And we've renamed it the SES Opinion Dashboard 🏴🧑🏽🤝🧑🏻
Summary 🧵
scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
July 25, 2025 at 10:46 AM
🍦Big Scoop tracker update 📊
We've fully updated our handy page of time series public opinion measures, added new visualisations and made it much easier to find.
And we've renamed it the SES Opinion Dashboard 🏴🧑🏽🤝🧑🏻
Summary 🧵
scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
We've fully updated our handy page of time series public opinion measures, added new visualisations and made it much easier to find.
And we've renamed it the SES Opinion Dashboard 🏴🧑🏽🤝🧑🏻
Summary 🧵
scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
May 22, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
Our annual SES Bonanza Week kicks off this Thursday with
The Stevenson Trust for Citizenship at
@uofglasgow.bsky.social
!
Join us for our take on next year's Scottish Parliament election 🤠🏴
⏰ 1800-1930
📍 203 Boyd Orr Building, Glasgow
Sign up 👇🏼
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
The Stevenson Trust for Citizenship at
@uofglasgow.bsky.social
!
Join us for our take on next year's Scottish Parliament election 🤠🏴
⏰ 1800-1930
📍 203 Boyd Orr Building, Glasgow
Sign up 👇🏼
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
May 6, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Our annual SES Bonanza Week kicks off this Thursday with
The Stevenson Trust for Citizenship at
@uofglasgow.bsky.social
!
Join us for our take on next year's Scottish Parliament election 🤠🏴
⏰ 1800-1930
📍 203 Boyd Orr Building, Glasgow
Sign up 👇🏼
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
The Stevenson Trust for Citizenship at
@uofglasgow.bsky.social
!
Join us for our take on next year's Scottish Parliament election 🤠🏴
⏰ 1800-1930
📍 203 Boyd Orr Building, Glasgow
Sign up 👇🏼
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social and @frasmcm.bsky.social were delighted to receive the 2025 @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social Pippa Norris Prize on behalf of the whole SES team for a research group's "outstanding contribution to advancing knowledge in Political Studies" earlier this week at #PSA25 🥳
April 17, 2025 at 2:13 PM
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social and @frasmcm.bsky.social were delighted to receive the 2025 @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social Pippa Norris Prize on behalf of the whole SES team for a research group's "outstanding contribution to advancing knowledge in Political Studies" earlier this week at #PSA25 🥳
We find that Reform are, unsurprisingly, attracting anti-immigration and anti-establishment voters in Scotland. They pose a big threat to the @scottories.bsky.social but could be held back by a limited pool of prospective voters and Farage's personal ratings.
March 10, 2025 at 4:30 PM
We find that Reform are, unsurprisingly, attracting anti-immigration and anti-establishment voters in Scotland. They pose a big threat to the @scottories.bsky.social but could be held back by a limited pool of prospective voters and Farage's personal ratings.
⏰ CALL FOR PAPERS
Scottish politics conference co-organised by the SES,
@ccc-research.bsky.social and hosted at @edinburghpir.bsky.social
12-13 May 2025
We look forward to welcoming researchers working on anything and everything related to Scottish politics a year out from the 2026 election 🏴🗳️
Scottish politics conference co-organised by the SES,
@ccc-research.bsky.social and hosted at @edinburghpir.bsky.social
12-13 May 2025
We look forward to welcoming researchers working on anything and everything related to Scottish politics a year out from the 2026 election 🏴🗳️
February 26, 2025 at 1:40 PM
⏰ CALL FOR PAPERS
Scottish politics conference co-organised by the SES,
@ccc-research.bsky.social and hosted at @edinburghpir.bsky.social
12-13 May 2025
We look forward to welcoming researchers working on anything and everything related to Scottish politics a year out from the 2026 election 🏴🗳️
Scottish politics conference co-organised by the SES,
@ccc-research.bsky.social and hosted at @edinburghpir.bsky.social
12-13 May 2025
We look forward to welcoming researchers working on anything and everything related to Scottish politics a year out from the 2026 election 🏴🗳️
We'll be at @scottishlabour.bsky.social conf next Friday 21st at 1730 for our Fringe with @michaeljmarra.bsky.social and @libbybrooks.bsky.social 🌹📰
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social and Fraser McMillan will discuss GE2024 findings and look ahead to 2026 - tea and shorties included!
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social and Fraser McMillan will discuss GE2024 findings and look ahead to 2026 - tea and shorties included!
February 13, 2025 at 3:04 PM
We'll be at @scottishlabour.bsky.social conf next Friday 21st at 1730 for our Fringe with @michaeljmarra.bsky.social and @libbybrooks.bsky.social 🌹📰
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social and Fraser McMillan will discuss GE2024 findings and look ahead to 2026 - tea and shorties included!
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social and Fraser McMillan will discuss GE2024 findings and look ahead to 2026 - tea and shorties included!
After a very busy year in Scottish politics, we hope everyone has a lovely break 🎄🎅🏻
December 20, 2024 at 4:53 PM
After a very busy year in Scottish politics, we hope everyone has a lovely break 🎄🎅🏻
We've published an interactive visualisation of vote flows in the last two general elections so if you're interested in e.g.
> the Labour win
> how the SNP lost out
> where Reform support came from
you'll find this interesting to play around with 🤓
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
> the Labour win
> how the SNP lost out
> where Reform support came from
you'll find this interesting to play around with 🤓
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
December 13, 2024 at 4:57 PM
We've published an interactive visualisation of vote flows in the last two general elections so if you're interested in e.g.
> the Labour win
> how the SNP lost out
> where Reform support came from
you'll find this interesting to play around with 🤓
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
> the Labour win
> how the SNP lost out
> where Reform support came from
you'll find this interesting to play around with 🤓
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Support at independence hasn't shifted and is stuck at or around the 45% achieved 10 years ago. But the perception that the SNP are doing a bad job in government is now hurting the party.
September 20, 2024 at 5:03 PM
Support at independence hasn't shifted and is stuck at or around the 45% achieved 10 years ago. But the perception that the SNP are doing a bad job in government is now hurting the party.
Well, even though a majority of the electorate have consistently indicated they would never consider voting Conservative, the share for the SNP has grown considerably, and by far the majority of tactical votes cast are now against the nationalists.
September 20, 2024 at 5:03 PM
Well, even though a majority of the electorate have consistently indicated they would never consider voting Conservative, the share for the SNP has grown considerably, and by far the majority of tactical votes cast are now against the nationalists.
It is also the case that tactical voting has increased, and this mostly disadvantages the SNP. Why?
September 20, 2024 at 5:02 PM
It is also the case that tactical voting has increased, and this mostly disadvantages the SNP. Why?
The long and short of all this is that elevated indy support sustained the SNP long after 2014, powering them to a series of victories at all levels of government.
But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.
But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.
September 20, 2024 at 5:02 PM
The long and short of all this is that elevated indy support sustained the SNP long after 2014, powering them to a series of victories at all levels of government.
But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.
But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.
We also know it changed people's constitutional preferences, with young people in particular much more supportive than before - although they were always the group most favourably disposed to "devo max". The binary choice presented in 2014 forced people to pick a side.
September 20, 2024 at 5:02 PM
We also know it changed people's constitutional preferences, with young people in particular much more supportive than before - although they were always the group most favourably disposed to "devo max". The binary choice presented in 2014 forced people to pick a side.
It similarly altered how people felt about Scotland, believing it had become a more engaged political space. Yes voters were initially more convinced of this, but No voters soon changed their minds.
This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️
This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️
September 20, 2024 at 5:01 PM
It similarly altered how people felt about Scotland, believing it had become a more engaged political space. Yes voters were initially more convinced of this, but No voters soon changed their minds.
This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️
This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️
We also know that the referendum changed how people engaged with politics. A lot of people joined the pro-indy parties after the referendum. At peak, one in 24 Scots belonged to a political party vs one in 125 in the UK as a whole 🪧⬇️
September 20, 2024 at 5:01 PM
We also know that the referendum changed how people engaged with politics. A lot of people joined the pro-indy parties after the referendum. At peak, one in 24 Scots belonged to a political party vs one in 125 in the UK as a whole 🪧⬇️
Meanwhile, changes in Conservative support were more gradual.
This graph shows the share of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives at each general election in the 2010s, with the party's effort to become the voice of No supporters paying off north of the border in 2017 🔵
This graph shows the share of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives at each general election in the 2010s, with the party's effort to become the voice of No supporters paying off north of the border in 2017 🔵
September 20, 2024 at 5:01 PM
Meanwhile, changes in Conservative support were more gradual.
This graph shows the share of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives at each general election in the 2010s, with the party's effort to become the voice of No supporters paying off north of the border in 2017 🔵
This graph shows the share of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives at each general election in the 2010s, with the party's effort to become the voice of No supporters paying off north of the border in 2017 🔵
The referendum pushed voters out to the poles of the constitutional debate.
This outstanding graph by @jaclarner.bsky.social shows this happened immediately following the indyref vote, with voters moving from Labour to SNP en masse 😯
This outstanding graph by @jaclarner.bsky.social shows this happened immediately following the indyref vote, with voters moving from Labour to SNP en masse 😯
September 20, 2024 at 5:00 PM
The referendum pushed voters out to the poles of the constitutional debate.
This outstanding graph by @jaclarner.bsky.social shows this happened immediately following the indyref vote, with voters moving from Labour to SNP en masse 😯
This outstanding graph by @jaclarner.bsky.social shows this happened immediately following the indyref vote, with voters moving from Labour to SNP en masse 😯
We also saw greater consistency between Westminster and Holyrood preferences, moving away from patterns early on in the devolution era.
This graph shows differences in parties' constituency vote shares at Westminster and Holyrood elections.
This graph shows differences in parties' constituency vote shares at Westminster and Holyrood elections.
September 20, 2024 at 5:00 PM
We also saw greater consistency between Westminster and Holyrood preferences, moving away from patterns early on in the devolution era.
This graph shows differences in parties' constituency vote shares at Westminster and Holyrood elections.
This graph shows differences in parties' constituency vote shares at Westminster and Holyrood elections.
We know the referendum changed voting behaviour with...
Firstly, greater consistency between independence preferences and party preferences 🗳️🤝
2010 > 2015 general election vote choice among Yes voters on the left, No voters on the right.
Firstly, greater consistency between independence preferences and party preferences 🗳️🤝
2010 > 2015 general election vote choice among Yes voters on the left, No voters on the right.
September 20, 2024 at 4:59 PM
We know the referendum changed voting behaviour with...
Firstly, greater consistency between independence preferences and party preferences 🗳️🤝
2010 > 2015 general election vote choice among Yes voters on the left, No voters on the right.
Firstly, greater consistency between independence preferences and party preferences 🗳️🤝
2010 > 2015 general election vote choice among Yes voters on the left, No voters on the right.