Dan Rutherford
@rutherdan.bsky.social
Clean transportation researcher; track dad; R̶e̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ Boom snarkoholic. #teslatakedown
When ICE inevitably arrests me, I hope that testimony like this gets put in the record.
November 6, 2025 at 9:32 PM
When ICE inevitably arrests me, I hope that testimony like this gets put in the record.
My little girl is now a woman. 😢
November 3, 2025 at 6:52 PM
My little girl is now a woman. 😢
Name that monster movie.
October 28, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Name that monster movie.
Move along; nothing to see here.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/u...
October 27, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Move along; nothing to see here.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/u...
Who doesn’t enjoy an upside down nap on hard tile?
Sheepish tail wag needs work though.
Sheepish tail wag needs work though.
September 30, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Who doesn’t enjoy an upside down nap on hard tile?
Sheepish tail wag needs work though.
Sheepish tail wag needs work though.
High Noon, but for play.
September 27, 2025 at 3:17 PM
High Noon, but for play.
For the uninitiated, that’s Montebello Road, about 2000’ up at 7 am.
September 26, 2025 at 9:01 PM
For the uninitiated, that’s Montebello Road, about 2000’ up at 7 am.
Silicon Valley companies suck.
Silicon Valley cycling? Can’t be beat.
Silicon Valley cycling? Can’t be beat.
September 26, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Silicon Valley companies suck.
Silicon Valley cycling? Can’t be beat.
Silicon Valley cycling? Can’t be beat.
At that point, the cooling effects of cutting SLCPs are overpowered by accumulating atmospheric CO2 (Fig 16). This illustrates the value of an aviation Full Breakthrough that uses near-term SLCP cuts to buy time to mature new technologies to reduce GHGs. (END) theicct.org/publication/...
September 26, 2025 at 6:28 PM
At that point, the cooling effects of cutting SLCPs are overpowered by accumulating atmospheric CO2 (Fig 16). This illustrates the value of an aviation Full Breakthrough that uses near-term SLCP cuts to buy time to mature new technologies to reduce GHGs. (END) theicct.org/publication/...
The Full Breakthrough scenario combines these two scenarios and cuts aviation's share of warming in half (2%) under 1.7°C and holds it constant (4%) even under the very challenging 1.5°C scenario. Not too shabby for a "hard to abate" sector!/
September 26, 2025 at 6:25 PM
The Full Breakthrough scenario combines these two scenarios and cuts aviation's share of warming in half (2%) under 1.7°C and holds it constant (4%) even under the very challenging 1.5°C scenario. Not too shabby for a "hard to abate" sector!/
Table 12 compares aviation’s projected warming from 2025 to 2050 under different scenarios and how much of the remaining global temperature budget each would consume. Our Current Commitments scenario envisions a quadrupling (to 15%) of aviation's share of 1.7C temperature budget./
September 26, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Table 12 compares aviation’s projected warming from 2025 to 2050 under different scenarios and how much of the remaining global temperature budget each would consume. Our Current Commitments scenario envisions a quadrupling (to 15%) of aviation's share of 1.7C temperature budget./
We estimate that airlines contributed about 0.058°C in 2025, or 4% of anthropogenic warming. Let's take that 4% as a ceiling for future warming, on the assumption that airlines shouldn't increase their share of emissions over time./
September 26, 2025 at 6:19 PM
We estimate that airlines contributed about 0.058°C in 2025, or 4% of anthropogenic warming. Let's take that 4% as a ceiling for future warming, on the assumption that airlines shouldn't increase their share of emissions over time./
In fact, our study estimates that SLCP mitigation could contribute 85% (!) of avoidable aviation warming in 2050. Almost half of that could come from contrail avoidance, with minor changes in flight operations to avoid humid air in the atmosphere significantly reducing aviation warming./
September 25, 2025 at 11:42 PM
In fact, our study estimates that SLCP mitigation could contribute 85% (!) of avoidable aviation warming in 2050. Almost half of that could come from contrail avoidance, with minor changes in flight operations to avoid humid air in the atmosphere significantly reducing aviation warming./
SLCPs, in contrast, warm the climate for hours to days. But while the residence time of SLCPs in the atmosphere is short, their warming impact can be very high. Combine these two and you see why near-term cuts in SLCPs hold promise -- their warming impact can be rapidly reduced compared to CO2./
September 25, 2025 at 11:37 PM
SLCPs, in contrast, warm the climate for hours to days. But while the residence time of SLCPs in the atmosphere is short, their warming impact can be very high. Combine these two and you see why near-term cuts in SLCPs hold promise -- their warming impact can be rapidly reduced compared to CO2./
Wasn't expecting that clickthrough.
September 25, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Wasn't expecting that clickthrough.
This can be seen most clearly in Fig 15 of the report showing that CO2 warming dominates after 2035 for our SLCP Forward and Full Breakthrough scenarios. Thus, maturing GHG technologies over the next decade is still critical to long-term climate stabilization. (END)
theicct.org/publication/...
theicct.org/publication/...
September 24, 2025 at 8:54 PM
This can be seen most clearly in Fig 15 of the report showing that CO2 warming dominates after 2035 for our SLCP Forward and Full Breakthrough scenarios. Thus, maturing GHG technologies over the next decade is still critical to long-term climate stabilization. (END)
theicct.org/publication/...
theicct.org/publication/...
So, our conclusion that 85% of potential avoided aviation warming in 2050 comes from SLCPs reflects not only the newly recognized potential for contrail mitigation but also tempered expectations of what new aircraft types, SAFs, and especially hydrogen can deliver./
September 24, 2025 at 8:32 PM
So, our conclusion that 85% of potential avoided aviation warming in 2050 comes from SLCPs reflects not only the newly recognized potential for contrail mitigation but also tempered expectations of what new aircraft types, SAFs, and especially hydrogen can deliver./
Collectively, lower expectations for clean planes and fuels raises our projection of minimum 2050 emissions aviation from under 100 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e (a 90%+ reduction from baseline) in the 2022 study to about 500 Mt (a 70% reduction) in this update./
September 24, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Collectively, lower expectations for clean planes and fuels raises our projection of minimum 2050 emissions aviation from under 100 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e (a 90%+ reduction from baseline) in the 2022 study to about 500 Mt (a 70% reduction) in this update./
Resistance is futile.
September 24, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Resistance is futile.
We looked at the range of 2.8% to 3.7% p.a. passenger growth from 2025 to 2050. Demand response due to higher SAF costs will lower that by ~0.2%, so 2.6% to 3.5% p.a. This compares to 8 to 11% p.a. traffic growth in recent years.
September 23, 2025 at 11:58 PM
We looked at the range of 2.8% to 3.7% p.a. passenger growth from 2025 to 2050. Demand response due to higher SAF costs will lower that by ~0.2%, so 2.6% to 3.5% p.a. This compares to 8 to 11% p.a. traffic growth in recent years.
The report is chock full of data (46! Figures! and Tables!) including this banger from Jonny Benoit showing how CO2 mitigation measures up against contrails and cruise NOx. Certainly in my top 5 list of best ICCT data visualizations. Give it a read! (FIN)
September 23, 2025 at 11:16 PM
The report is chock full of data (46! Figures! and Tables!) including this banger from Jonny Benoit showing how CO2 mitigation measures up against contrails and cruise NOx. Certainly in my top 5 list of best ICCT data visualizations. Give it a read! (FIN)
The NYT does a 24 paragraph story on Larry Ellison and doesn't so much as HINT, anywhere, that he might be Ming the Merciless.
September 23, 2025 at 10:57 PM
The NYT does a 24 paragraph story on Larry Ellison and doesn't so much as HINT, anywhere, that he might be Ming the Merciless.
The report concludes that both GHG and SLCP controls will be needed to contain aviation’s contribution to global warming. Intriguingly, we show here a path toward climate neutral growth post-2035 where rapid cooling from reduced contrails offsets further GHG warming./
September 23, 2025 at 10:25 PM
The report concludes that both GHG and SLCP controls will be needed to contain aviation’s contribution to global warming. Intriguingly, we show here a path toward climate neutral growth post-2035 where rapid cooling from reduced contrails offsets further GHG warming./
The deepest cuts (Full Breakthrough) in GHGs+SLCPs would slash future warming by 90% and freeze (at 4%) aviation's share of our remaining 1.5C temperature budget and cut in half (to 2%) its share of 1.7C. SLCPs would contribute an estimated **85%** of avoided warming./
September 23, 2025 at 10:12 PM
The deepest cuts (Full Breakthrough) in GHGs+SLCPs would slash future warming by 90% and freeze (at 4%) aviation's share of our remaining 1.5C temperature budget and cut in half (to 2%) its share of 1.7C. SLCPs would contribute an estimated **85%** of avoided warming./