Norwegian household spending on goods rose in Q4 but is well below the pre-pandemic trend. Tight monetary policy is suppressing durables purchases and encouraging saving despite very low goods inflation. Not the case for services.

No surprises at Norges Bank's interim January meeting. Central bank is on course for a March rate cut, but the path thereafter is less certain. Cuts could total 100bps if core inflation subsides quicker, but renewed protectionism concerns and impact on the krone add considerable upside risk.

Norway's infinite money glitch continues to reap rewards at a time when the rest of Europe's governments are having to fiscally consolidate. This is all the more important for growth this year as Norges Bank is far behind the easing cycles of other advanced economy central banks.