Riccardo Fabiani
@ricfabiani.bsky.social
Project Director, North Africa at the International Crisis Group.
Unless there is a radical and unpredictable change in the local or international circumstances, the conflict seems to be slowly headed towards a unilateral, partial resolution that risks leaving thousands of refugees stranded and disenfranchised.
October 31, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Unless there is a radical and unpredictable change in the local or international circumstances, the conflict seems to be slowly headed towards a unilateral, partial resolution that risks leaving thousands of refugees stranded and disenfranchised.
Meanwhile, the Polisario doesn't have a credible strategy to achieve what it wants.
Diplomatically, its passivity is only working against its own interests.
Militarily, they have no viable options, due to the limits they face in terms of equipment and rules of the game.
Diplomatically, its passivity is only working against its own interests.
Militarily, they have no viable options, due to the limits they face in terms of equipment and rules of the game.
October 31, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Meanwhile, the Polisario doesn't have a credible strategy to achieve what it wants.
Diplomatically, its passivity is only working against its own interests.
Militarily, they have no viable options, due to the limits they face in terms of equipment and rules of the game.
Diplomatically, its passivity is only working against its own interests.
Militarily, they have no viable options, due to the limits they face in terms of equipment and rules of the game.
Morocco has strategic patience and will continue to work towards imposing its own solution, with or without the other side.
This means signing a deal with another Sahrawi group to end the conflict and/or removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
This means signing a deal with another Sahrawi group to end the conflict and/or removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
October 31, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Morocco has strategic patience and will continue to work towards imposing its own solution, with or without the other side.
This means signing a deal with another Sahrawi group to end the conflict and/or removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
This means signing a deal with another Sahrawi group to end the conflict and/or removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
That said, the resolution still includes elements of language that are favourable to Morocco.
The long-term trend that sees the UN Security Council move closer to Rabat's position is only reinforced.
The long-term trend that sees the UN Security Council move closer to Rabat's position is only reinforced.
October 31, 2025 at 1:57 PM
That said, the resolution still includes elements of language that are favourable to Morocco.
The long-term trend that sees the UN Security Council move closer to Rabat's position is only reinforced.
The long-term trend that sees the UN Security Council move closer to Rabat's position is only reinforced.
The US (and France, for that matters) exhibited a fundamental misunderstanding of the Polisario and Algeria's position, which doomed their policy from the start.
October 31, 2025 at 1:57 PM
The US (and France, for that matters) exhibited a fundamental misunderstanding of the Polisario and Algeria's position, which doomed their policy from the start.
But, instead of nuancing the language and creating room for the UN envoy to explore what flexibility both sides have and what room for compromise exists, the US went all in with a one-sided approach that was never going to work.
October 31, 2025 at 1:57 PM
But, instead of nuancing the language and creating room for the UN envoy to explore what flexibility both sides have and what room for compromise exists, the US went all in with a one-sided approach that was never going to work.
A wasted opportunity, because the US had leverage over the parties but squandered it by trying to impose autonomy leaving no room to the other side.
The idea of linking MINURSO reform to progress was also a way to pressure both parties towards a settlement.
The idea of linking MINURSO reform to progress was also a way to pressure both parties towards a settlement.
October 31, 2025 at 1:57 PM
A wasted opportunity, because the US had leverage over the parties but squandered it by trying to impose autonomy leaving no room to the other side.
The idea of linking MINURSO reform to progress was also a way to pressure both parties towards a settlement.
The idea of linking MINURSO reform to progress was also a way to pressure both parties towards a settlement.
An honourable compromise, because it avoids upsetting the status quo by overemphasizing the autonomy plan at the expenses of self-determination.
It also prolongs the MINURSO for another 12 months, protecting a key safeguard against accidental escalation.
It also prolongs the MINURSO for another 12 months, protecting a key safeguard against accidental escalation.
October 31, 2025 at 1:57 PM
An honourable compromise, because it avoids upsetting the status quo by overemphasizing the autonomy plan at the expenses of self-determination.
It also prolongs the MINURSO for another 12 months, protecting a key safeguard against accidental escalation.
It also prolongs the MINURSO for another 12 months, protecting a key safeguard against accidental escalation.
The window for diplomacy is narrow: without a coherent U.S.–European strategy and UN leadership, the Western Sahara dispute could slide into renewed regional instability.
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 AM
The window for diplomacy is narrow: without a coherent U.S.–European strategy and UN leadership, the Western Sahara dispute could slide into renewed regional instability.
We urge the U.S. to align with the UN, resist unilateralism, and press both Morocco and the Polisario to update and detail their 20-year-old proposals.
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 AM
We urge the U.S. to align with the UN, resist unilateralism, and press both Morocco and the Polisario to update and detail their 20-year-old proposals.
Hardliners in Rabat and Washington push to close MINURSO, arguing the conflict is “over”. But removing peacekeepers could trigger direct Morocco–Algeria clashes.
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Hardliners in Rabat and Washington push to close MINURSO, arguing the conflict is “over”. But removing peacekeepers could trigger direct Morocco–Algeria clashes.
European capitals back Morocco’s autonomy plan to varying degrees, from France’s full endorsement to Italy’s careful neutrality. Fragmentation weakens Europe’s leverage.
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 AM
European capitals back Morocco’s autonomy plan to varying degrees, from France’s full endorsement to Italy’s careful neutrality. Fragmentation weakens Europe’s leverage.
The UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura, urges negotiations around genuine autonomy and a credible form of self-determination. Only this balance can bridge the gap between Rabat and the Polisario.
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 AM
The UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura, urges negotiations around genuine autonomy and a credible form of self-determination. Only this balance can bridge the gap between Rabat and the Polisario.
Sahrawi frustration is rising in refugee camps as diplomacy stalls. Without credible talks, pressure is mounting for renewed armed struggle.
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Sahrawi frustration is rising in refugee camps as diplomacy stalls. Without credible talks, pressure is mounting for renewed armed struggle.
Trump officials back Morocco’s autonomy plan yet flirt with dismantling MINURSO and branding the Polisario as terrorists, moves that could reignite conflict.
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Trump officials back Morocco’s autonomy plan yet flirt with dismantling MINURSO and branding the Polisario as terrorists, moves that could reignite conflict.
Washington’s renewed interest in Western Sahara offers a rare diplomatic opening, but mixed signals and hardline agendas risk slamming it shut.
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Washington’s renewed interest in Western Sahara offers a rare diplomatic opening, but mixed signals and hardline agendas risk slamming it shut.
Once Western Sahara is removed from the UN list of non-self-governing territories, the legal and diplomatic scaffolding around it collapses.
While this move would not end the conflict per se, it would remove a major thorn in the side for Morocco and "normalise" the status quo.
While this move would not end the conflict per se, it would remove a major thorn in the side for Morocco and "normalise" the status quo.
July 23, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Once Western Sahara is removed from the UN list of non-self-governing territories, the legal and diplomatic scaffolding around it collapses.
While this move would not end the conflict per se, it would remove a major thorn in the side for Morocco and "normalise" the status quo.
While this move would not end the conflict per se, it would remove a major thorn in the side for Morocco and "normalise" the status quo.
By acknowledging the autonomy plan as "the only basis" for resolution and recognising Moroccan sovereignty, foreign governments implicitly recognise Western Sahara as Moroccan and, therefore, not a non-self-governing territory.
July 23, 2025 at 11:12 AM
By acknowledging the autonomy plan as "the only basis" for resolution and recognising Moroccan sovereignty, foreign governments implicitly recognise Western Sahara as Moroccan and, therefore, not a non-self-governing territory.
These elements of language matter for the future of this conflict.
By precluding other options, Morocco is hoping to 1) force Algeria and the Polisario to change position while 2) paving the way for removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
By precluding other options, Morocco is hoping to 1) force Algeria and the Polisario to change position while 2) paving the way for removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
July 23, 2025 at 11:12 AM
These elements of language matter for the future of this conflict.
By precluding other options, Morocco is hoping to 1) force Algeria and the Polisario to change position while 2) paving the way for removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
By precluding other options, Morocco is hoping to 1) force Algeria and the Polisario to change position while 2) paving the way for removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
Morocco clearly prefers the latter option, but will settle for the former as long as it indicates an evolution from previous positions.
Algeria and the Polisario despise both options, but can live with the former.
But this is not just a battle over semantics.
Algeria and the Polisario despise both options, but can live with the former.
But this is not just a battle over semantics.
July 23, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Morocco clearly prefers the latter option, but will settle for the former as long as it indicates an evolution from previous positions.
Algeria and the Polisario despise both options, but can live with the former.
But this is not just a battle over semantics.
Algeria and the Polisario despise both options, but can live with the former.
But this is not just a battle over semantics.
- Calling the autonomy plan "the only basis" for conflict resolution
- Language adopted by France and the US
- Indicates only autonomy is possible and precludes other options
- Usually comes with recognition of Moroccan sovereignty
- Antagonises Algeria and the Polisario
- Language adopted by France and the US
- Indicates only autonomy is possible and precludes other options
- Usually comes with recognition of Moroccan sovereignty
- Antagonises Algeria and the Polisario
July 23, 2025 at 11:12 AM
- Calling the autonomy plan "the only basis" for conflict resolution
- Language adopted by France and the US
- Indicates only autonomy is possible and precludes other options
- Usually comes with recognition of Moroccan sovereignty
- Antagonises Algeria and the Polisario
- Language adopted by France and the US
- Indicates only autonomy is possible and precludes other options
- Usually comes with recognition of Moroccan sovereignty
- Antagonises Algeria and the Polisario