René Duba 🅿️
@reneduba.bsky.social
Conflict analyst 🅿️ (parked here)
Chat = not used
Chat = not used
'Realists' laugh at moral indignation. They shouldn't. Sinking as low as Hitler is a very negative factor. And it's real.
/end.
/end.
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
'Realists' laugh at moral indignation. They shouldn't. Sinking as low as Hitler is a very negative factor. And it's real.
/end.
/end.
European and US pacifists and Russian friendly voices should be confronted with the hard reality of Putin's "Russian Mir".
As Putin believes in impunity and many Russians with him, Ukraine and the West should make them understand there won't be such a thing as impunity.
As Putin believes in impunity and many Russians with him, Ukraine and the West should make them understand there won't be such a thing as impunity.
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
European and US pacifists and Russian friendly voices should be confronted with the hard reality of Putin's "Russian Mir".
As Putin believes in impunity and many Russians with him, Ukraine and the West should make them understand there won't be such a thing as impunity.
As Putin believes in impunity and many Russians with him, Ukraine and the West should make them understand there won't be such a thing as impunity.
9. The world community has had it with Putin. There are still those who protect themselves from disgust by denial. As Dwight Eisenhower decided on 12 April 1945, after seeing the “conditions of indescribable horror” in concentration camp Ohrdruf, the world should know this.
[..]
[..]
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
9. The world community has had it with Putin. There are still those who protect themselves from disgust by denial. As Dwight Eisenhower decided on 12 April 1945, after seeing the “conditions of indescribable horror” in concentration camp Ohrdruf, the world should know this.
[..]
[..]
[..]
Their replacement (the Satan rocket) misfires, falls out of the sky or just explodes. Doesn't look like a hopeful project at this point. The same goes for the Oreshnik.
8. Russian artillery is imprecise. That's a weak point.
Their replacement (the Satan rocket) misfires, falls out of the sky or just explodes. Doesn't look like a hopeful project at this point. The same goes for the Oreshnik.
8. Russian artillery is imprecise. That's a weak point.
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
[..]
Their replacement (the Satan rocket) misfires, falls out of the sky or just explodes. Doesn't look like a hopeful project at this point. The same goes for the Oreshnik.
8. Russian artillery is imprecise. That's a weak point.
Their replacement (the Satan rocket) misfires, falls out of the sky or just explodes. Doesn't look like a hopeful project at this point. The same goes for the Oreshnik.
8. Russian artillery is imprecise. That's a weak point.
7. Old Russian ICBMs have been neglected are underserviced and may be a case lost. The same goes for the nuclear war heads. Russia's protection is the we don't know for sure. Some may still work.
[..]
[..]
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
7. Old Russian ICBMs have been neglected are underserviced and may be a case lost. The same goes for the nuclear war heads. Russia's protection is the we don't know for sure. Some may still work.
[..]
[..]
6. Russia is financially on its way to the bottom.
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
6. Russia is financially on its way to the bottom.
4. A Russian tank showing up at the front is a tank lost. The same goes for other vehicles.
5. Many of their strategic bombers are irreplaceable. Factories, assembly lines and knowledge stems from times past, the engineers are dead. A bomber lost is a bomber lost forever.
5. Many of their strategic bombers are irreplaceable. Factories, assembly lines and knowledge stems from times past, the engineers are dead. A bomber lost is a bomber lost forever.
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
4. A Russian tank showing up at the front is a tank lost. The same goes for other vehicles.
5. Many of their strategic bombers are irreplaceable. Factories, assembly lines and knowledge stems from times past, the engineers are dead. A bomber lost is a bomber lost forever.
5. Many of their strategic bombers are irreplaceable. Factories, assembly lines and knowledge stems from times past, the engineers are dead. A bomber lost is a bomber lost forever.
3. The Russian army is thoroughly corrupt. Soldier's salaries flow into the commander's pockets. The dead are not acknowledged, so the money keeps flowing. The anonymous dead go into landfills by the thousands. Supposedly "Missing In Action" so as not to pay teir families.
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
3. The Russian army is thoroughly corrupt. Soldier's salaries flow into the commander's pockets. The dead are not acknowledged, so the money keeps flowing. The anonymous dead go into landfills by the thousands. Supposedly "Missing In Action" so as not to pay teir families.
2. Their leaders are delusional and paranoid, they lack in reality testing, they probably don't get to hear the truth from their commanders.
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
2. Their leaders are delusional and paranoid, they lack in reality testing, they probably don't get to hear the truth from their commanders.
What are some of Russia's weak points?
1. Russia's size is a typical structural weakness. They have such a large territory that to defend it all, you need insane amounts of air defence.
Ukraine can hit whatever they like.
1. Russia's size is a typical structural weakness. They have such a large territory that to defend it all, you need insane amounts of air defence.
Ukraine can hit whatever they like.
July 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
What are some of Russia's weak points?
1. Russia's size is a typical structural weakness. They have such a large territory that to defend it all, you need insane amounts of air defence.
Ukraine can hit whatever they like.
1. Russia's size is a typical structural weakness. They have such a large territory that to defend it all, you need insane amounts of air defence.
Ukraine can hit whatever they like.
Russia increased the use of chemical weapons and increased research for new chemical weapons.
Dutch and German intelligence services have documented 9000 chemical attacks to date, while the real number is a multiple of this.
english.defensie.nl/latest/news/...
Dutch and German intelligence services have documented 9000 chemical attacks to date, while the real number is a multiple of this.
english.defensie.nl/latest/news/...
July 4, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Russia increased the use of chemical weapons and increased research for new chemical weapons.
Dutch and German intelligence services have documented 9000 chemical attacks to date, while the real number is a multiple of this.
english.defensie.nl/latest/news/...
Dutch and German intelligence services have documented 9000 chemical attacks to date, while the real number is a multiple of this.
english.defensie.nl/latest/news/...
Conclusion:
Russia can freely sell nuclear power plants all over the world. It can claim it has "initiated" planning everywhere, because "initiated" can mean almost anything.
It represents serious revenue for Rosatom and hence: serious tax revenue for Putin's war machine.
5/5
Russia can freely sell nuclear power plants all over the world. It can claim it has "initiated" planning everywhere, because "initiated" can mean almost anything.
It represents serious revenue for Rosatom and hence: serious tax revenue for Putin's war machine.
5/5
July 1, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Conclusion:
Russia can freely sell nuclear power plants all over the world. It can claim it has "initiated" planning everywhere, because "initiated" can mean almost anything.
It represents serious revenue for Rosatom and hence: serious tax revenue for Putin's war machine.
5/5
Russia can freely sell nuclear power plants all over the world. It can claim it has "initiated" planning everywhere, because "initiated" can mean almost anything.
It represents serious revenue for Rosatom and hence: serious tax revenue for Putin's war machine.
5/5
The latest lifting of sanctions (115B) is almost equal to the version of 10 January 2025 (115A) which excluded the Hungarian NPP. This is now included. Hungary can now build its Russian nuclear power plant and Rosatom can now get paid.
4/
4/
July 1, 2025 at 8:10 AM
The latest lifting of sanctions (115B) is almost equal to the version of 10 January 2025 (115A) which excluded the Hungarian NPP. This is now included. Hungary can now build its Russian nuclear power plant and Rosatom can now get paid.
4/
4/
Grok:
Fuel rods and servicing add steady income. Annual foreign revenue likely ranges between $10–15 billion.
Grok estimates the order portfolio at 127 Billion USD, but I'd count in the framework agreements and the letters of intent. Those would at least double it.
3/
Fuel rods and servicing add steady income. Annual foreign revenue likely ranges between $10–15 billion.
Grok estimates the order portfolio at 127 Billion USD, but I'd count in the framework agreements and the letters of intent. Those would at least double it.
3/
July 1, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Grok:
Fuel rods and servicing add steady income. Annual foreign revenue likely ranges between $10–15 billion.
Grok estimates the order portfolio at 127 Billion USD, but I'd count in the framework agreements and the letters of intent. Those would at least double it.
3/
Fuel rods and servicing add steady income. Annual foreign revenue likely ranges between $10–15 billion.
Grok estimates the order portfolio at 127 Billion USD, but I'd count in the framework agreements and the letters of intent. Those would at least double it.
3/
Grok:
Rosatom, earns revenue from its nuclear exports: $16.2 billion in 2023 and a 10-year order portfolio of $127.1 billion. Major projects in Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, China, India and elsewhere involve loans of $10–30 billion per project, repaid through electricity sales.
2/
Rosatom, earns revenue from its nuclear exports: $16.2 billion in 2023 and a 10-year order portfolio of $127.1 billion. Major projects in Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, China, India and elsewhere involve loans of $10–30 billion per project, repaid through electricity sales.
2/
July 1, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Grok:
Rosatom, earns revenue from its nuclear exports: $16.2 billion in 2023 and a 10-year order portfolio of $127.1 billion. Major projects in Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, China, India and elsewhere involve loans of $10–30 billion per project, repaid through electricity sales.
2/
Rosatom, earns revenue from its nuclear exports: $16.2 billion in 2023 and a 10-year order portfolio of $127.1 billion. Major projects in Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, China, India and elsewhere involve loans of $10–30 billion per project, repaid through electricity sales.
2/
Trump made a sanctions exception for Russian nuclear projects world wide, it was already largely in place before Trump. Two questions:
1. What amount of money is involved?
2. What is the difference between the earlier (but slightly different version of 10 January 2025)?
1/
1. What amount of money is involved?
2. What is the difference between the earlier (but slightly different version of 10 January 2025)?
1/
July 1, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Trump made a sanctions exception for Russian nuclear projects world wide, it was already largely in place before Trump. Two questions:
1. What amount of money is involved?
2. What is the difference between the earlier (but slightly different version of 10 January 2025)?
1/
1. What amount of money is involved?
2. What is the difference between the earlier (but slightly different version of 10 January 2025)?
1/
I see this a lot on social media (not on Bluesky).
What to do with Kremlin disinformation?
Use the BIG button.
Wait minute, then flush again for the vomit.
And then: delete, block, mute, report.
Repeat as needed and enjoy your day!
What to do with Kremlin disinformation?
Use the BIG button.
Wait minute, then flush again for the vomit.
And then: delete, block, mute, report.
Repeat as needed and enjoy your day!
June 26, 2025 at 9:23 AM
I see this a lot on social media (not on Bluesky).
What to do with Kremlin disinformation?
Use the BIG button.
Wait minute, then flush again for the vomit.
And then: delete, block, mute, report.
Repeat as needed and enjoy your day!
What to do with Kremlin disinformation?
Use the BIG button.
Wait minute, then flush again for the vomit.
And then: delete, block, mute, report.
Repeat as needed and enjoy your day!
Conclusion
1. Ukraine will be capable of building any rocket.
2. The Soviet Union was proud of its space program. Russia assumed itself to be the inheritor of anything Soviet, so that would make the design successess Russian.
Not.
The design was Ukrainian.
6/6
Korolev (R) with Gagarin (L):
1. Ukraine will be capable of building any rocket.
2. The Soviet Union was proud of its space program. Russia assumed itself to be the inheritor of anything Soviet, so that would make the design successess Russian.
Not.
The design was Ukrainian.
6/6
Korolev (R) with Gagarin (L):
June 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Conclusion
1. Ukraine will be capable of building any rocket.
2. The Soviet Union was proud of its space program. Russia assumed itself to be the inheritor of anything Soviet, so that would make the design successess Russian.
Not.
The design was Ukrainian.
6/6
Korolev (R) with Gagarin (L):
1. Ukraine will be capable of building any rocket.
2. The Soviet Union was proud of its space program. Russia assumed itself to be the inheritor of anything Soviet, so that would make the design successess Russian.
Not.
The design was Ukrainian.
6/6
Korolev (R) with Gagarin (L):
Zhytomyr (Житомир), Ukraine, on the map:
5/
5/
June 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Zhytomyr (Житомир), Ukraine, on the map:
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5/
Sergei Pavlovich Korolev (*1907) was born in Zhytomyr, Ukraine. He started his studies at the Kyiv Polytechnic and went on to become both a physicist and an engineer.
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4/
June 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Sergei Pavlovich Korolev (*1907) was born in Zhytomyr, Ukraine. He started his studies at the Kyiv Polytechnic and went on to become both a physicist and an engineer.
4/
4/
Korolev's Soyuz design, which name nowadays applies to both the modular capsule and the rocket itself, is still being used. The one with the lower number of rocket motors is called Vostok. It is the most successfull rocket design in history with over 1700 launches.
3/
Vostok
3/
Vostok
June 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Korolev's Soyuz design, which name nowadays applies to both the modular capsule and the rocket itself, is still being used. The one with the lower number of rocket motors is called Vostok. It is the most successfull rocket design in history with over 1700 launches.
3/
Vostok
3/
Vostok
Korolev went on to design the N1 rocket that would take the Luna moonlander to the moon. Tragically, he died two weeks before it landed on the moon.
His space rockets were a great success and became famous under the name of Soyuz.
2/
His space rockets were a great success and became famous under the name of Soyuz.
2/
June 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Korolev went on to design the N1 rocket that would take the Luna moonlander to the moon. Tragically, he died two weeks before it landed on the moon.
His space rockets were a great success and became famous under the name of Soyuz.
2/
His space rockets were a great success and became famous under the name of Soyuz.
2/
For those who insist that Soviet successes in space were essentially Russian... let's remember Sergei Korolev.
He designed the GIRD-9 and 10 rockets, the R1 (that became the Scud), the R7 that put the Sputnik and Yuri Gagarin into orbit.
1/
He designed the GIRD-9 and 10 rockets, the R1 (that became the Scud), the R7 that put the Sputnik and Yuri Gagarin into orbit.
1/
June 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
For those who insist that Soviet successes in space were essentially Russian... let's remember Sergei Korolev.
He designed the GIRD-9 and 10 rockets, the R1 (that became the Scud), the R7 that put the Sputnik and Yuri Gagarin into orbit.
1/
He designed the GIRD-9 and 10 rockets, the R1 (that became the Scud), the R7 that put the Sputnik and Yuri Gagarin into orbit.
1/
- Ukraine should find a way to do carpet bombing on Russian front line positions.
A warning:
Russia is stocking up on T-90 tanks. They produce them, but don't send them to the front. Russia either has a plan or an abillity that anyone should be wary of.
6/6
(pic: Lyman 2022)
A warning:
Russia is stocking up on T-90 tanks. They produce them, but don't send them to the front. Russia either has a plan or an abillity that anyone should be wary of.
6/6
(pic: Lyman 2022)
June 25, 2025 at 8:49 AM
- Ukraine should find a way to do carpet bombing on Russian front line positions.
A warning:
Russia is stocking up on T-90 tanks. They produce them, but don't send them to the front. Russia either has a plan or an abillity that anyone should be wary of.
6/6
(pic: Lyman 2022)
A warning:
Russia is stocking up on T-90 tanks. They produce them, but don't send them to the front. Russia either has a plan or an abillity that anyone should be wary of.
6/6
(pic: Lyman 2022)
- Introduce FPV pilot training for all Ukrainians of all ages, men and women. And making piloting remote (with minimum lag).
- Build redundant communications.
- More sea & land drones
Most everything Ukraine already does and does very well, except multiplied.
Plus:
[..]
5/
- Build redundant communications.
- More sea & land drones
Most everything Ukraine already does and does very well, except multiplied.
Plus:
[..]
5/
June 25, 2025 at 8:49 AM
- Introduce FPV pilot training for all Ukrainians of all ages, men and women. And making piloting remote (with minimum lag).
- Build redundant communications.
- More sea & land drones
Most everything Ukraine already does and does very well, except multiplied.
Plus:
[..]
5/
- Build redundant communications.
- More sea & land drones
Most everything Ukraine already does and does very well, except multiplied.
Plus:
[..]
5/