AccidentalInsightRepeater
@ratelimitexceeder.bsky.social
The death of truth is the ultimate victory of evil. Exceeded my rate limits on Twitter so now I'm here. Sh*tposts and takes on politics, movies, culture, whatever.
It's interesting (and by interesting I mean mystifying) to see a reporter confess he understands very little about military deployment. We had carrier groups in these regions to project force and deter threats. What threats does he think are in South America that merit an aircraft carrier?
November 12, 2025 at 8:17 PM
It's interesting (and by interesting I mean mystifying) to see a reporter confess he understands very little about military deployment. We had carrier groups in these regions to project force and deter threats. What threats does he think are in South America that merit an aircraft carrier?
All of us right now to Trump
November 12, 2025 at 6:46 PM
All of us right now to Trump
Precinct Two, Manassas Park city
67% hispanic, 7% college-educated, est. median income $81,298, est. median age 33
Harris +3.4
Spanberger +35.7
32.3%(!) more Democratic
64.5% of 2024 presidential turnout
One of the largest swings (if not largest) in the state.
67% hispanic, 7% college-educated, est. median income $81,298, est. median age 33
Harris +3.4
Spanberger +35.7
32.3%(!) more Democratic
64.5% of 2024 presidential turnout
One of the largest swings (if not largest) in the state.
November 12, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Precinct Two, Manassas Park city
67% hispanic, 7% college-educated, est. median income $81,298, est. median age 33
Harris +3.4
Spanberger +35.7
32.3%(!) more Democratic
64.5% of 2024 presidential turnout
One of the largest swings (if not largest) in the state.
67% hispanic, 7% college-educated, est. median income $81,298, est. median age 33
Harris +3.4
Spanberger +35.7
32.3%(!) more Democratic
64.5% of 2024 presidential turnout
One of the largest swings (if not largest) in the state.
Denial of genetic ancestry is my "favorite" form of antisemitism, because for whatever reason, people are happy to dispute the historical record but spiral when they realize in fact, Jews are indigenous to the Middle East.
November 12, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Denial of genetic ancestry is my "favorite" form of antisemitism, because for whatever reason, people are happy to dispute the historical record but spiral when they realize in fact, Jews are indigenous to the Middle East.
1/ I understand this criticism but I actually think a lot of this serves to make Red Dead 2 feel like a breathing open world instead of a series of waypoints and checkboxes, and further you don't *have* to do a lot of this stuff, you're just encouraged to.
November 6, 2025 at 9:51 PM
1/ I understand this criticism but I actually think a lot of this serves to make Red Dead 2 feel like a breathing open world instead of a series of waypoints and checkboxes, and further you don't *have* to do a lot of this stuff, you're just encouraged to.
1/ People love be contrarians but I think the GTA series has only improved in quality over time, but I think it also goes like:
Grand Theft Auto San Andreas = best open world
Grand Theft Auto 4 = best story
Grand Theft Auto 5 = best overall gameplay
Red Dead Redemption 2 is also masterpiece.
Grand Theft Auto San Andreas = best open world
Grand Theft Auto 4 = best story
Grand Theft Auto 5 = best overall gameplay
Red Dead Redemption 2 is also masterpiece.
November 6, 2025 at 9:48 PM
1/ People love be contrarians but I think the GTA series has only improved in quality over time, but I think it also goes like:
Grand Theft Auto San Andreas = best open world
Grand Theft Auto 4 = best story
Grand Theft Auto 5 = best overall gameplay
Red Dead Redemption 2 is also masterpiece.
Grand Theft Auto San Andreas = best open world
Grand Theft Auto 4 = best story
Grand Theft Auto 5 = best overall gameplay
Red Dead Redemption 2 is also masterpiece.
3/ It's incredible to boxed into a corner by Ross Douthat of all people.
November 6, 2025 at 2:07 PM
3/ It's incredible to boxed into a corner by Ross Douthat of all people.
2/ When remotely pushed on any of the harms of feminization, Andrews has to basically reorient her argument to something she thinks the audience wants to hear, because there's no evidence of the original claims (women are bad vets).
November 6, 2025 at 2:07 PM
2/ When remotely pushed on any of the harms of feminization, Andrews has to basically reorient her argument to something she thinks the audience wants to hear, because there's no evidence of the original claims (women are bad vets).
1/ Helen Andrews has a BA in religious studies from Yale, meaning that she has probably never had to exist in a blue-collar workplace or anything remotely proximate to it. Leah Libresco Sargeant does not appear to be remotely liberal, but she spends most of this interview undercutting Andrews.
November 6, 2025 at 2:07 PM
1/ Helen Andrews has a BA in religious studies from Yale, meaning that she has probably never had to exist in a blue-collar workplace or anything remotely proximate to it. Leah Libresco Sargeant does not appear to be remotely liberal, but she spends most of this interview undercutting Andrews.
8-FINAL/ At the top of the state for turnout (breaking 80% of 2024), are many of the counties that had a strong early vote. But notice that Albemarle and Henrico are both big blue liberal jurisdictions that didn't crack the top 10 early voters. Spanberger had strong Election Day turnout there.
November 5, 2025 at 2:56 PM
8-FINAL/ At the top of the state for turnout (breaking 80% of 2024), are many of the counties that had a strong early vote. But notice that Albemarle and Henrico are both big blue liberal jurisdictions that didn't crack the top 10 early voters. Spanberger had strong Election Day turnout there.
7/ Northern Virginia turnout relative to 2021 was a little more mixed, but worth noting that Prince William County, a minority-majority jurisdiction, saw the largest turnout increase and also some of the largest swings statewide.
November 5, 2025 at 2:56 PM
7/ Northern Virginia turnout relative to 2021 was a little more mixed, but worth noting that Prince William County, a minority-majority jurisdiction, saw the largest turnout increase and also some of the largest swings statewide.
6/ As I predicted last night, the "big" red localities that put Youngkin over the edge underperformed turnout last night (pending mail-in + provisionals of course). These aren't bad numbers in their own right. But with statewide turnout at 75% of 2024, only Hanover was really running ahead.
November 5, 2025 at 2:56 PM
6/ As I predicted last night, the "big" red localities that put Youngkin over the edge underperformed turnout last night (pending mail-in + provisionals of course). These aren't bad numbers in their own right. But with statewide turnout at 75% of 2024, only Hanover was really running ahead.
Spotsybama? More like Spotsyfornia!
November 5, 2025 at 2:28 AM
Spotsybama? More like Spotsyfornia!
And Lt Gov called. We’ll be waiting awhile on AG.
November 5, 2025 at 12:37 AM
And Lt Gov called. We’ll be waiting awhile on AG.
lol call made 19 min after polls close. I suspect the networks will wait for a few counties to complete counting then call it.
November 5, 2025 at 12:31 AM
lol call made 19 min after polls close. I suspect the networks will wait for a few counties to complete counting then call it.
We're shaping up for a classic "depressed conservative base boosts liberal candidate's margin of victory" scenario. In 2021, these counties got the following % of 2020 vote:
Buchanan: 60%, R+70
Carroll: 76%, R+67
Dickenson: 66%, R+61
Pulaski: 75%, R+49
Statewide 2021 turnout was 74% of 2021.
Buchanan: 60%, R+70
Carroll: 76%, R+67
Dickenson: 66%, R+61
Pulaski: 75%, R+49
Statewide 2021 turnout was 74% of 2021.
November 4, 2025 at 5:45 PM
We're shaping up for a classic "depressed conservative base boosts liberal candidate's margin of victory" scenario. In 2021, these counties got the following % of 2020 vote:
Buchanan: 60%, R+70
Carroll: 76%, R+67
Dickenson: 66%, R+61
Pulaski: 75%, R+49
Statewide 2021 turnout was 74% of 2021.
Buchanan: 60%, R+70
Carroll: 76%, R+67
Dickenson: 66%, R+61
Pulaski: 75%, R+49
Statewide 2021 turnout was 74% of 2021.
1/ Since the end of the Jim Crow era, Virginia has voted for the opposite party in the White House in all but 4 election cycles, 3 of them before 1977. The four to defy the odds are:
1/3. Mills Godwin won twice in 1965 and 1973, in 65 as the last Byrd Dem and 73 as a conservative Republican.
1/3. Mills Godwin won twice in 1965 and 1973, in 65 as the last Byrd Dem and 73 as a conservative Republican.
November 3, 2025 at 7:53 PM
1/ Since the end of the Jim Crow era, Virginia has voted for the opposite party in the White House in all but 4 election cycles, 3 of them before 1977. The four to defy the odds are:
1/3. Mills Godwin won twice in 1965 and 1973, in 65 as the last Byrd Dem and 73 as a conservative Republican.
1/3. Mills Godwin won twice in 1965 and 1973, in 65 as the last Byrd Dem and 73 as a conservative Republican.
1/ Could Miyares pull out a victory tomorrow? I think the answer is "yes, but ...." Since the passage of the Voting Rights Act Virginia has seen competitive gubernatorial/statewide elections and voters have historically being willing to ticket-split. BUT:
- Ticket-splitting has fallen off since 2000
- Ticket-splitting has fallen off since 2000
November 3, 2025 at 6:52 PM
1/ Could Miyares pull out a victory tomorrow? I think the answer is "yes, but ...." Since the passage of the Voting Rights Act Virginia has seen competitive gubernatorial/statewide elections and voters have historically being willing to ticket-split. BUT:
- Ticket-splitting has fallen off since 2000
- Ticket-splitting has fallen off since 2000
7/ Looking at back at the month, Trump localities went from a 2% turnout advantage on 10/8 to Harris localities have a 2.2% turnout advantage as in-person early voting comes to an end. This *suggests* a Harris +8 electorate, but we can't be really sure.
November 3, 2025 at 3:26 PM
7/ Looking at back at the month, Trump localities went from a 2% turnout advantage on 10/8 to Harris localities have a 2.2% turnout advantage as in-person early voting comes to an end. This *suggests* a Harris +8 electorate, but we can't be really sure.
6/ At the same time, you can see rural localities running out of steam in the early vote (I think Pittsylvania might be an error). I wouldn't expect these places to be dead quiet on Election Day, but they need a 2024-like election day turnout pattern to reverse the trend. I'm skeptical of that.
November 3, 2025 at 3:26 PM
6/ At the same time, you can see rural localities running out of steam in the early vote (I think Pittsylvania might be an error). I wouldn't expect these places to be dead quiet on Election Day, but they need a 2024-like election day turnout pattern to reverse the trend. I'm skeptical of that.
5/ You can really see that weekend voting drove turnout in larger localities like Chesterfield, Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Loudoun, etc., who all voted ahead of the commonwealth's pace, which is why the early vote got rapidly bluer as predicted in the final weeks.
November 3, 2025 at 3:26 PM
5/ You can really see that weekend voting drove turnout in larger localities like Chesterfield, Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Loudoun, etc., who all voted ahead of the commonwealth's pace, which is why the early vote got rapidly bluer as predicted in the final weeks.
4/ The bottom continues to look similar: most of the counties under 25% are deep red, and concentrated in southwest Virginia, with a few larger black cities also lagging. I think this is a pretty good indicator of where both parties are gonna come up short relative to 2024.
November 3, 2025 at 3:26 PM
4/ The bottom continues to look similar: most of the counties under 25% are deep red, and concentrated in southwest Virginia, with a few larger black cities also lagging. I think this is a pretty good indicator of where both parties are gonna come up short relative to 2024.
1/ We've made it to the sixth and final early vote check-in. In-person early voting wrapped over the weekend, and while mail ballots are still coming in, they won't be enough to drastically change the rankings. 1,433,427 votes have been cast, equivalent to 31.8% of 2024's total votes.
November 3, 2025 at 3:26 PM
1/ We've made it to the sixth and final early vote check-in. In-person early voting wrapped over the weekend, and while mail ballots are still coming in, they won't be enough to drastically change the rankings. 1,433,427 votes have been cast, equivalent to 31.8% of 2024's total votes.
Left: 12/26/24
Right: 10/31/25
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- HL Mencken
Right: 10/31/25
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- HL Mencken
October 31, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Left: 12/26/24
Right: 10/31/25
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- HL Mencken
Right: 10/31/25
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- HL Mencken
Kash Patel please let the people under you do their jobs.
October 31, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Kash Patel please let the people under you do their jobs.