New @anderseninstitute.bsky.social Note: "When financial regulation becomes financial repression" (link below)

We take a macro view on the interactions between:

(i) high and rising debt
(ii) OBBB expansionary spending
(iii) GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation
(iv) SLR bank capital reform

If tariffs are going to improve US debt sustainability then why is US default risk going up?
#Finsky #Econsky

The idea that these tarriffs will be recessionary is consistent with cross asset market moves and even more directly, rising recession odds in prediction markets

equities (-)
mid/long rates (-)
STIR fwds (-)
inflation fwds beyond 1-year (-)
crude oil (-)

Turns out that RRP drainage was highly responsive to T-bill supply