King Raj
@rajmehta.ca
Baseball writer & analyst for Prospects Live. Creator of stats such as rajWAR, bFIP, and more.
Currently working on a projection system for fantasy baseball, right now it’s only looking at 2025 stats but I’m working on including 2024 & 2023 stats to better project for 2026. Here’s the top 10 hitters in projected value so far (assuming standard 5x5 league format):
September 9, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Currently working on a projection system for fantasy baseball, right now it’s only looking at 2025 stats but I’m working on including 2024 & 2023 stats to better project for 2026. Here’s the top 10 hitters in projected value so far (assuming standard 5x5 league format):
I'm pleased to announce that I'm now a writer for Prospects Live! I'll mainly be writing about dynasty baseball and prospects, though I'll sometimes write about general baseball analysis.
I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!
www.prospectslive.com
I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!
www.prospectslive.com
August 28, 2025 at 2:24 PM
I'm pleased to announce that I'm now a writer for Prospects Live! I'll mainly be writing about dynasty baseball and prospects, though I'll sometimes write about general baseball analysis.
I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!
www.prospectslive.com
I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!
www.prospectslive.com
Here’s Andrew Heaney’s performance bonuses, according to @spotrac.com:
August 20, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Here’s Andrew Heaney’s performance bonuses, according to @spotrac.com:
With Willi Castro in the lineup for Nathan Lukes, the Jays become one of the best in baseball vs LHP:
So, what would it take to acquire Willi Castro in a trade?
So, what would it take to acquire Willi Castro in a trade?
July 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
With Willi Castro in the lineup for Nathan Lukes, the Jays become one of the best in baseball vs LHP:
So, what would it take to acquire Willi Castro in a trade?
So, what would it take to acquire Willi Castro in a trade?
All of a sudden, the lineup goes from one of the best in baseball to one that's below average. A lot of this can be solved internally, with a few platoon substitutions (Clement for Barger, Straw for Varsho, Schneider for Wagner), which can take it from below average to above average:
July 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
All of a sudden, the lineup goes from one of the best in baseball to one that's below average. A lot of this can be solved internally, with a few platoon substitutions (Clement for Barger, Straw for Varsho, Schneider for Wagner), which can take it from below average to above average:
Now, let's look at the same lineup vs LHP:
July 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Now, let's look at the same lineup vs LHP:
Let's start with the current lineup vs RHP, with Daulton Varsho as he's currently on a rehab assignment and will be returning soon (the average slash line is the mean of the 9 hitters in the lineup):
July 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Let's start with the current lineup vs RHP, with Daulton Varsho as he's currently on a rehab assignment and will be returning soon (the average slash line is the mean of the 9 hitters in the lineup):
Just made a reworked version of a swing quality metric I made a couple years ago. The old version had a power component, while this one doesn't (but I'll make another version that includes it). Here are the top 10 hitters by SQ+ (min. 1000 pitches):
June 13, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Just made a reworked version of a swing quality metric I made a couple years ago. The old version had a power component, while this one doesn't (but I'll make another version that includes it). Here are the top 10 hitters by SQ+ (min. 1000 pitches):
This was the swing decision component for the stat I mentioned earlier; it looked at swings in the zone & takes outside of the zone vs average. Calculated it back in 2023 so I don’t have anything more recent than that yet, but here are the top 10 from that season (min. 1000 pitches):
June 13, 2025 at 1:22 PM
This was the swing decision component for the stat I mentioned earlier; it looked at swings in the zone & takes outside of the zone vs average. Calculated it back in 2023 so I don’t have anything more recent than that yet, but here are the top 10 from that season (min. 1000 pitches):
Among pitchers with at least 27 IP in both '23 & '24, '23 bFIP is more strongly correlated with '24 ERA than ERA, RA/9, FIP, xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. In other words, bFIP is more predictive of next season's ERA than most other ERA predictors.
Check out the linked thread for a quick explainer on bFIP:
Check out the linked thread for a quick explainer on bFIP:
May 13, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Among pitchers with at least 27 IP in both '23 & '24, '23 bFIP is more strongly correlated with '24 ERA than ERA, RA/9, FIP, xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. In other words, bFIP is more predictive of next season's ERA than most other ERA predictors.
Check out the linked thread for a quick explainer on bFIP:
Check out the linked thread for a quick explainer on bFIP:
This is what you get when you search for Boyle’s splinkers from yesterday’s game. Other pitch-level stats are there, but the arm angle fields are blank.
April 15, 2025 at 2:14 AM
This is what you get when you search for Boyle’s splinkers from yesterday’s game. Other pitch-level stats are there, but the arm angle fields are blank.
The team logos of the current AL West standings spells out “ASSHAT” from bottom to top.
April 4, 2025 at 4:21 PM
The team logos of the current AL West standings spells out “ASSHAT” from bottom to top.
Back at TD Ballpark for another Spring Breakout game! Twins @ Jays today.
Flying back home tomorrow so this will be my final spring training game this year. Really enjoyed my experience here!
Flying back home tomorrow so this will be my final spring training game this year. Really enjoyed my experience here!
March 15, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Back at TD Ballpark for another Spring Breakout game! Twins @ Jays today.
Flying back home tomorrow so this will be my final spring training game this year. Really enjoyed my experience here!
Flying back home tomorrow so this will be my final spring training game this year. Really enjoyed my experience here!
Day 2: Pirates @ Phillies (Spring Breakout)
Lots of interesting prospects playing for both sides, can’t wait to see them all in action!
Lots of interesting prospects playing for both sides, can’t wait to see them all in action!
March 14, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Day 2: Pirates @ Phillies (Spring Breakout)
Lots of interesting prospects playing for both sides, can’t wait to see them all in action!
Lots of interesting prospects playing for both sides, can’t wait to see them all in action!
I’m in Florida for a few days so I figured I’d catch a few spring training games!
First up: O’s @ Jays
First up: O’s @ Jays
March 13, 2025 at 5:14 PM
I’m in Florida for a few days so I figured I’d catch a few spring training games!
First up: O’s @ Jays
First up: O’s @ Jays
One thing I do to see if I have a good fantasy team is to send it to others and have them guess the # of teams in the league (guess lower = good, guess higher = bad).
The draft for one of my main leagues just ended, so guess away!
Format: H2H each cat; R, RBI, SB, OBP, TB; K, ERA, WHIP, SV+H, W+QS
The draft for one of my main leagues just ended, so guess away!
Format: H2H each cat; R, RBI, SB, OBP, TB; K, ERA, WHIP, SV+H, W+QS
March 7, 2025 at 8:27 PM
One thing I do to see if I have a good fantasy team is to send it to others and have them guess the # of teams in the league (guess lower = good, guess higher = bad).
The draft for one of my main leagues just ended, so guess away!
Format: H2H each cat; R, RBI, SB, OBP, TB; K, ERA, WHIP, SV+H, W+QS
The draft for one of my main leagues just ended, so guess away!
Format: H2H each cat; R, RBI, SB, OBP, TB; K, ERA, WHIP, SV+H, W+QS
Here’s the metrics for Clay Holmes’ new changeup, which Statcast mislabeled as a sinker.
Only 83 changeups in 2024 were thrown w/ >=89 mph, <=1 in. iVB, & >=45° arm angle.
Those CH had a 49% Whiff%, an avg EV of 85 mph, & an avg launch angle of -5°.
This could easily be an elite pitch for Holmes.
Only 83 changeups in 2024 were thrown w/ >=89 mph, <=1 in. iVB, & >=45° arm angle.
Those CH had a 49% Whiff%, an avg EV of 85 mph, & an avg launch angle of -5°.
This could easily be an elite pitch for Holmes.
February 22, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Here’s the metrics for Clay Holmes’ new changeup, which Statcast mislabeled as a sinker.
Only 83 changeups in 2024 were thrown w/ >=89 mph, <=1 in. iVB, & >=45° arm angle.
Those CH had a 49% Whiff%, an avg EV of 85 mph, & an avg launch angle of -5°.
This could easily be an elite pitch for Holmes.
Only 83 changeups in 2024 were thrown w/ >=89 mph, <=1 in. iVB, & >=45° arm angle.
Those CH had a 49% Whiff%, an avg EV of 85 mph, & an avg launch angle of -5°.
This could easily be an elite pitch for Holmes.
When looking at pitchers with at least 250 pitches thrown in both 2023 and 2024, there is a moderately strong correlation between 2023 CRV2/100 and 2024 CRV2/100, and the relationship has an R^2 of 0.346. This is much stronger than CRV1, which had an R^2 of 0.247.
December 22, 2024 at 4:06 AM
When looking at pitchers with at least 250 pitches thrown in both 2023 and 2024, there is a moderately strong correlation between 2023 CRV2/100 and 2024 CRV2/100, and the relationship has an R^2 of 0.346. This is much stronger than CRV1, which had an R^2 of 0.247.
There is a positive correlation between BABIP and SBI. Therefore, if you want your batted balls to become hits more often, you must become a chonky boi with hella zoomies.
December 20, 2024 at 5:54 AM
There is a positive correlation between BABIP and SBI. Therefore, if you want your batted balls to become hits more often, you must become a chonky boi with hella zoomies.
To end off, here's Frankie Montas' pitch mix vs LHB from 2021, his best full season. Some of the suggested changes are present (more SI, less FB & FC), but with it essentially being a three-pitch mix, Montas would likely still benefit from adding a sweeper, though that's easier said than done.
December 2, 2024 at 11:11 PM
To end off, here's Frankie Montas' pitch mix vs LHB from 2021, his best full season. Some of the suggested changes are present (more SI, less FB & FC), but with it essentially being a three-pitch mix, Montas would likely still benefit from adding a sweeper, though that's easier said than done.
From '23 to '24, Sean Manaea completely reinvented himself vs RHB, going from a fastball-changeup pitcher to a sinker-sweeper one. His lower arm angle gave his pitches more horizontal break, which helps with avoiding the barrel of the bat in terms of both generating whiffs and limiting hard contact.
December 2, 2024 at 11:11 PM
From '23 to '24, Sean Manaea completely reinvented himself vs RHB, going from a fastball-changeup pitcher to a sinker-sweeper one. His lower arm angle gave his pitches more horizontal break, which helps with avoiding the barrel of the bat in terms of both generating whiffs and limiting hard contact.
From 2023 (left) to 2024 (right), Luis Severino started using his sinker more, and added a sweeper that he used against both hands. Sweepers are generally good at limiting hard contact, while sinkers work hand in hand with fastballs to do so (swinging at one while expecting the other = weak contact)
December 2, 2024 at 11:11 PM
From 2023 (left) to 2024 (right), Luis Severino started using his sinker more, and added a sweeper that he used against both hands. Sweepers are generally good at limiting hard contact, while sinkers work hand in hand with fastballs to do so (swinging at one while expecting the other = weak contact)
So, the problem with Montas isn't "how can he get better?", but more specifically "how can he get better vs LHB?".
To answer that, let's look at his pitch mix vs lefties, but only August 2024 onwards, as his repertoire and stuff changed once he joined the Brewers:
To answer that, let's look at his pitch mix vs lefties, but only August 2024 onwards, as his repertoire and stuff changed once he joined the Brewers:
December 2, 2024 at 11:11 PM
So, the problem with Montas isn't "how can he get better?", but more specifically "how can he get better vs LHB?".
To answer that, let's look at his pitch mix vs lefties, but only August 2024 onwards, as his repertoire and stuff changed once he joined the Brewers:
To answer that, let's look at his pitch mix vs lefties, but only August 2024 onwards, as his repertoire and stuff changed once he joined the Brewers:
While I was doing research for my thread on Carlos Santana from earlier today, Tommy Edman (who just signed an extension with the #Dodgers) also popped up as someone that could benefit from ditching switch-hitting. Small sample size, but his swing was much better as a righty than as a lefty.
November 29, 2024 at 10:23 PM
While I was doing research for my thread on Carlos Santana from earlier today, Tommy Edman (who just signed an extension with the #Dodgers) also popped up as someone that could benefit from ditching switch-hitting. Small sample size, but his swing was much better as a righty than as a lefty.
As a lefty, Santana had an average bat speed of 71.5 mph, and his Squared-Up% (% of swings that obtain at least 80% of the max possible exit velo based on pitch and bat speed) is 26.1%. Both of these are around average.
As a righty, his bat speed is 72.6 mph, and his Squared-Up% jumps up to 34.3%.
As a righty, his bat speed is 72.6 mph, and his Squared-Up% jumps up to 34.3%.
November 29, 2024 at 7:08 PM
As a lefty, Santana had an average bat speed of 71.5 mph, and his Squared-Up% (% of swings that obtain at least 80% of the max possible exit velo based on pitch and bat speed) is 26.1%. Both of these are around average.
As a righty, his bat speed is 72.6 mph, and his Squared-Up% jumps up to 34.3%.
As a righty, his bat speed is 72.6 mph, and his Squared-Up% jumps up to 34.3%.