Does that help?

So I would also put an uncertainty around the month when SSTs should return, but I cannot say how large that is due to the very small sample size. It might well be 2-4 months. That might sound disappointing but I'd say the primary conclusion above (higher ECS) is relatively robust.

An important point: We have "only" 11 simulations with record-shattering SST jumps out of which 8 have not a very high ECS. Thus, certain statistical uncertainty exists in the maximum duration until SSTs are expected to come back to pre-jump levels (similar to the uncertainties in the return period)

It looks as if SSTs might return in the coming months. If that happens, it would indeed indicate that ECS and warming is not at the very high end but slightly on the higher than expected side.

Hi Peter,

Thanks for asking. Indeed they have not come back yet. Last winter, daily values have briefly been back but not monthly values.
This is in line with an ECS on the slightly higher side. Something that is supported by a study we published yesterday (esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...).

I also want to thank all the other co-authors that have contributed to this: Casimir de Lavergne, @jbsallee.bsky.social, Lester Kwiatkoswki and @froeltho.bsky.social! It was a fun and sometimes difficult ride.

Also a big thanks to @whoi.edu, @snsf.ch, and the University of Bern!

A 2 or 3 months research visit might be ideal to look into one of these ideas. So do not hesitate & get in contact if you are interested. We have different funding options here in Bern and I would be really happy to organize such a project and try to help to successfully apply for funding.

If anyone would be interested in an extended research visit in my group, I would be more than happy! I have a few more ideas for such projects but I am lacking time at the moment to work on this.

I really want to thank Linus for having accepted the invitation to @whoi.edu and for having taken this initial idea and having turned it into a magnificent paper. This was extraordinary work & I am proud & happy that I could accompany you and work with you on it, @linusvogt.bsky.social!

For future projections, it is thus not only important to understand cloud physics and dynamics but also to well simulate the ocean circulation including the deep waters, a part of the earth system that often receives less attention than it should receive.

Interestingly, the present day sea ice extent is strongly linked to deep-ocean temperatures that upwell in the Southern Ocean. This suggests that the deep ocean in climate models may determine the Southern Ocean climate state now, & hence a large part of the global cloud feedback and future warming.

As sea ice extent has only very lately been declining, this mechanism has not yet been captured by past atmospheric and ocean warming trend.

Thus, past studies that constrained future atmospheric and ocean warming with past trends likely underestimate future warming.

Overall, an underestimation of the sea ice extent in models leads to an underestimation of the cloud feedback, and hence an underestimation of future atmospheric and ocean warming.

The larger shift in the Southern Ocean affects global atmospheric and ocean warming through cloud feedbacks. The warming in the Southern Ocean starts a cloud feedback that leads to warming further north, which again initiates a cloud feedback further north, and so on.

When sea ice disappears with global warming, all models end up at a similar final state. Hence, a warmer Southern Ocean at present can warm less than a colder Southern Ocean at present. A larger Antarctic sea ice extent hence is a sign of a larger change coming over the 21st century,

We find that biases in too little sea ice extent at present are linked to biases towards too little future atmospheric and ocean warming.

The mechanism is that Antarctic sea ice indicates the present-day Southern Ocean state. Less sea ice extent is linked to a warmer Southern Ocean and vice versa.

Hi Jens, we are really happy to soon have you with us at the @unibe.ch. It will be a true hub for ocean biogeochemical research. Looking forward to a lot of great research and a lot of fun together!

Welcome in Bern, @jens-d-mueller.bsky.social. I am excited to have you around. I am sure it will be a time of great science and great fun :)