@peterjelinek.bsky.social aber die Talfahrt der Autobauer dürfte ja auch nach Abschwächungen des 'Verbrenneraus' weitergehen - und dann wird die Politik ihnen irgendwie unter die Arme greifen.
Noch ist unklar, wie - und entsprechend gibt es noch die Chance, dass die richtigen Maßnahmen kommen, IMO

and here the full policy brief, where the arguments are presented in more detail: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicat...

Yet the discussion around this partial relocation, and its positive effects for profitability, emissions and EU jobs, is woefully underdeveloped, and must be started urgently in Brussels and member states. In the medium term, this means more support schemes must be anchored at EU level (23/23)

Finally, national and EU policy for energy-intensive industry must reckon with a new economic geography emerging: some foreign regions are sunnier, windier and less densely populated. This will require at least some relocation of certain industry segments. (22/23)

Clean Competitiveness for the EU requires strong (green) lead markets, an improved CBAM, strategic trade defense measures, and a predictable regulatory framework. The goal must be to be clean & competitive, ultimately without subsidies. (21/23)

Most importantly: without progress on clean competitiveness policy and lowering structural energy costs, national IES won’t help at all.

More political capital must be invested in implementing the Clean Industrial Deal forcefully, which the EU currently isn't on track: tinyurl.com/ind-deal (20/23)

And for economic growth: it's politically tough, but industrial policy should be focused on helping regions and workers transition to more productive (and competitive) sectors - not on keeping uncompetitive heavy industry alive indefinitely by subsidising them at a loss to society. (19/23)

For resilience: act jointly at EU level.
An EU-wide mechanism should subsidise only strategically critical products, identified by an independent EU body. Subsidies should be allocated via auctions at EU-level, to avoid subsidy races and keep costs low. (18/23)

For decarbonisation: Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfDs) are one example that are better and more targeted than IES - they are long-term, i.e. more predictable, and auction-based, i.e. much cheaper per tonne of CO₂ saved (17/23)

Depending on the objective is
- economic competitiveness
- decarbonisation or
- resilience,
different tools are required. (16/23)

Instead of copying Germany, member states should have a clear view - if they intervene - what objectives they pursue with their intervention. The IES reflects a lack of strategic clarity - and the wishful thinking to just preserve the past forever. (15/23)

On resilience: also weak.
IESs apply broadly to electricity- and trade-intensive sectors — including biscuits, textiles and ceramics.
That’s not a strategic list.
It also doesn't offer sufficiently high incentives to actually keep production in the EU. (14/23)

On competitiveness: weak.

Germany (and other current EU industrial hubs) won't have low-cost electricity, in intl. comparison. This means many energy-intensive companies will remain unviable even 5 or 10 years from now.

These subsidies buy time; they don’t solve structural cost problems. (13/23)

On climate: the IES nudges firms to electrify; half the subsidy must be reinvested in green measures; and EU pilot schemes will induce global learning effects; it keeps production inside the relatively clean EU. Overall, a modest but positive effect. (12/23)

So, the German IES is not a big competitiveness threat. But is it perhaps still a good tool for other member states to introduce? The answer is, quite simply: No.
Why? ➡️ They help climate (a little), but have limited benefits for the economy and resilience: (11/23)

Is the German IES a competitiveness threat for other EU countries?

➡️ As I (very roughly) calculate, the German subsidy won’t dramatically undercut competitors - because German prices are high to start with. (10/23)

There are also massive subsidies for network tariffs for some industry. Together with these, my rough calculation yields that the IES in Germany will lower electricity prices by a third (for companies benefiting from the indirect emission cost subsidy, it's even more; left side of the chart) (9/23)