Paul Douglas
@pdouglasweather.bsky.social
Minnesota meteorologist and serial entrepreneur, tracking climate-fueled weather extremes. Author: “Caring For Creation” and “A Kid’s Guide to Saving the Planet”
My weather-tech company in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, @Praedictix, is looking for the right sales and account manager. If you or someone you know is interested email: jobs@praedictix.com
praedictix.com/contact-prae...
praedictix.com/contact-prae...
June 10, 2025 at 1:00 PM
My weather-tech company in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, @Praedictix, is looking for the right sales and account manager. If you or someone you know is interested email: jobs@praedictix.com
praedictix.com/contact-prae...
praedictix.com/contact-prae...
100F yesterday in Hallock, Minnesota. Highs near 90F into Wednesday but models show a cooler, wetter pattern returns by late week. 15-day total rainfall predictions are impressive. In the meantime high risk of wildfires into midweek with Red Flag Warning for most of the state. More crazy swings
May 12, 2025 at 2:03 PM
100F yesterday in Hallock, Minnesota. Highs near 90F into Wednesday but models show a cooler, wetter pattern returns by late week. 15-day total rainfall predictions are impressive. In the meantime high risk of wildfires into midweek with Red Flag Warning for most of the state. More crazy swings
Taste of summer on the way by early May...
Monday still looks like a severe T-storm day
A real spring this year. Imagine that
Monday still looks like a severe T-storm day
A real spring this year. Imagine that
April 24, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Taste of summer on the way by early May...
Monday still looks like a severe T-storm day
A real spring this year. Imagine that
Monday still looks like a severe T-storm day
A real spring this year. Imagine that
First potential (widespread) severe T-storm outbreak possible Monday of next week. That's still pretty far out and confidence level is low to moderate, but surges of 70s may leave the atmosphere irritable and capable of some atmospheric rocking and rolling.
April 23, 2025 at 12:12 PM
First potential (widespread) severe T-storm outbreak possible Monday of next week. That's still pretty far out and confidence level is low to moderate, but surges of 70s may leave the atmosphere irritable and capable of some atmospheric rocking and rolling.
Who cares about draconian cuts underway at NOAA? If you're a member of the weather community you should worry about cuts to NWS staffing, data integrity and research into severe weather. The public should wonder if they'll get timely warnings for their hometown. Here's why:
nwas.org/stand-up-for...
nwas.org/stand-up-for...
April 18, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Who cares about draconian cuts underway at NOAA? If you're a member of the weather community you should worry about cuts to NWS staffing, data integrity and research into severe weather. The public should wonder if they'll get timely warnings for their hometown. Here's why:
nwas.org/stand-up-for...
nwas.org/stand-up-for...
Under .5" rain for most of the MSP metro yesterday with 1-2" amounts for much of southern Minnesota. ECMWF predicts 2"+ between now and the end of April. Still looks like we are transitioning into a wetter pattern.
CoCoRaHS rainfall: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...
CoCoRaHS rainfall: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...
April 18, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Under .5" rain for most of the MSP metro yesterday with 1-2" amounts for much of southern Minnesota. ECMWF predicts 2"+ between now and the end of April. Still looks like we are transitioning into a wetter pattern.
CoCoRaHS rainfall: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...
CoCoRaHS rainfall: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...
A rock 'n roll afternoon and evening is shaping up with a significant severe T-storm threat, especially MSP to the Iowa border. Main threat is large hail, but an isolated tornado and 1-3" rains possible with this squall line.
HRRR loop from noon to 7pm. Take it easy out there
HRRR loop from noon to 7pm. Take it easy out there
April 17, 2025 at 12:31 PM
A rock 'n roll afternoon and evening is shaping up with a significant severe T-storm threat, especially MSP to the Iowa border. Main threat is large hail, but an isolated tornado and 1-3" rains possible with this squall line.
HRRR loop from noon to 7pm. Take it easy out there
HRRR loop from noon to 7pm. Take it easy out there
No snow, but plenty of rain on the way. ECMWF (European model) prints out 2" rains for much of Minnesota over the next 15 days. Coming at a good time for spring planting. Persistent drought appears to be slowly fading.
April 15, 2025 at 12:54 PM
No snow, but plenty of rain on the way. ECMWF (European model) prints out 2" rains for much of Minnesota over the next 15 days. Coming at a good time for spring planting. Persistent drought appears to be slowly fading.
At least 13 radiosonde (weather balloon) sites reducing or eliminating daily launches due to staffing cuts at local NWS offices. Weather balloon data is the second most important source of weather model "fuel" (behind satellite data). Accuracy will suffer. What can possibly go wrong
Updates to the NWS Upper Air Network:
As of April 3, Bethel, AK, moved to once-per-day (12 UTC) balloon launches.
I'm told that McGrath, AK, could suspend flights in May, while Yakutat, King Salmon, and Annette Island, AK, could go to one flight per day in the next couple months.
As of April 3, Bethel, AK, moved to once-per-day (12 UTC) balloon launches.
I'm told that McGrath, AK, could suspend flights in May, while Yakutat, King Salmon, and Annette Island, AK, could go to one flight per day in the next couple months.
April 11, 2025 at 12:38 PM
At least 13 radiosonde (weather balloon) sites reducing or eliminating daily launches due to staffing cuts at local NWS offices. Weather balloon data is the second most important source of weather model "fuel" (behind satellite data). Accuracy will suffer. What can possibly go wrong
Waking up to 1-3" across the metro, a little more north/west of MSP. Just light rain today at MSP but a few more slushy inches for central MN. Near 60F by the end of next week. This too shall pass...
Latest snowfall amounts here: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...
Latest snowfall amounts here: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...
April 2, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Waking up to 1-3" across the metro, a little more north/west of MSP. Just light rain today at MSP but a few more slushy inches for central MN. Near 60F by the end of next week. This too shall pass...
Latest snowfall amounts here: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...
Latest snowfall amounts here: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...
Not an April Fool's joke: wet snow later today and tonight, maybe 1-3" metro, with (very) plowable amounts over much of MN. Changeover to rain at MSP Wednesday will keep snowfall amounts down in the Twin Cities. A few 60s next week?
Prince was right: sometimes it snows in April
Prince was right: sometimes it snows in April
April 1, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Not an April Fool's joke: wet snow later today and tonight, maybe 1-3" metro, with (very) plowable amounts over much of MN. Changeover to rain at MSP Wednesday will keep snowfall amounts down in the Twin Cities. A few 60s next week?
Prince was right: sometimes it snows in April
Prince was right: sometimes it snows in April
No cause for panic, but a cruel April Fool's joke is brewing, maybe an inch or 2 of slush for the metro area tonight (it'll melt) with plowable amounts north of MSP. ECMWF shows fairly consistent 50s by the second week of April.
Spring in Minnesota is more theory than fact
Spring in Minnesota is more theory than fact
March 31, 2025 at 2:29 PM
No cause for panic, but a cruel April Fool's joke is brewing, maybe an inch or 2 of slush for the metro area tonight (it'll melt) with plowable amounts north of MSP. ECMWF shows fairly consistent 50s by the second week of April.
Spring in Minnesota is more theory than fact
Spring in Minnesota is more theory than fact
Not in the habit of recommending TV shows but watch this on Netflix. Amazing footage. The 2011 EF-5 tornado that hit Joplin, MO was an EF-5; 1-2 miles wide. It claimed 181 lives. Another reminder of how critical the local National Weather Service meteorologists who issue warnings are
March 23, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Not in the habit of recommending TV shows but watch this on Netflix. Amazing footage. The 2011 EF-5 tornado that hit Joplin, MO was an EF-5; 1-2 miles wide. It claimed 181 lives. Another reminder of how critical the local National Weather Service meteorologists who issue warnings are
ECMWF (European model) is far from perfect, but it often picks up on trends before other models. MSP metro will get brushed by slush Wednesday with heavier amounts south. Not exactly Snowmageddon
Warm signal continues for late March with more 60s. Early spring? Hey, a guy can dream...
Warm signal continues for late March with more 60s. Early spring? Hey, a guy can dream...
March 18, 2025 at 1:16 PM
ECMWF (European model) is far from perfect, but it often picks up on trends before other models. MSP metro will get brushed by slush Wednesday with heavier amounts south. Not exactly Snowmageddon
Warm signal continues for late March with more 60s. Early spring? Hey, a guy can dream...
Warm signal continues for late March with more 60s. Early spring? Hey, a guy can dream...
30% threat of an EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of any point from Jackson, MS to Birmingham, AL. Very concerned about large, violent long-track tornadoes later today. While 3-8" snow falls from Willmar to Park Rapids and Wadena. Cooler outlook but nothing polar. After record 75F Friday at MSP
March 15, 2025 at 11:43 AM
30% threat of an EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of any point from Jackson, MS to Birmingham, AL. Very concerned about large, violent long-track tornadoes later today. While 3-8" snow falls from Willmar to Park Rapids and Wadena. Cooler outlook but nothing polar. After record 75F Friday at MSP
Today's record high at MSP is 73F in 2012. Pretty sure we'll break that. Temps more typical of late May. Strong T-storms arrive this evening, a few packing hail and high winds. On backside of the storm a few inches of slush Hutchinson to Brainerd Lakes Saturday PM
Crowded House: 4 seasons in 1 day
Crowded House: 4 seasons in 1 day
March 14, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Today's record high at MSP is 73F in 2012. Pretty sure we'll break that. Temps more typical of late May. Strong T-storms arrive this evening, a few packing hail and high winds. On backside of the storm a few inches of slush Hutchinson to Brainerd Lakes Saturday PM
Crowded House: 4 seasons in 1 day
Crowded House: 4 seasons in 1 day
Powerful storm arriving Friday/Saturday with temperatures aloft warm enough for mostly rain MSP metro, but potentially plowable snow western counties.
Slight severe T-storm risk Friday; ECMWF more aggressive than GFS with warm fronts in coming weeks but spring is sure trying!
Slight severe T-storm risk Friday; ECMWF more aggressive than GFS with warm fronts in coming weeks but spring is sure trying!
March 12, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Powerful storm arriving Friday/Saturday with temperatures aloft warm enough for mostly rain MSP metro, but potentially plowable snow western counties.
Slight severe T-storm risk Friday; ECMWF more aggressive than GFS with warm fronts in coming weeks but spring is sure trying!
Slight severe T-storm risk Friday; ECMWF more aggressive than GFS with warm fronts in coming weeks but spring is sure trying!
Meteorological spring is here! Old Man Winter: hold my beer.
Rain changes to snow this evening, with 4-8" possible before snow tapers midday Wednesday; maybe 10" of snow in a few spots.
Winter Storm Warnings with Blizzard Warnings south of MSP. Wednesday travel will be a mess
Rain changes to snow this evening, with 4-8" possible before snow tapers midday Wednesday; maybe 10" of snow in a few spots.
Winter Storm Warnings with Blizzard Warnings south of MSP. Wednesday travel will be a mess
March 4, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Meteorological spring is here! Old Man Winter: hold my beer.
Rain changes to snow this evening, with 4-8" possible before snow tapers midday Wednesday; maybe 10" of snow in a few spots.
Winter Storm Warnings with Blizzard Warnings south of MSP. Wednesday travel will be a mess
Rain changes to snow this evening, with 4-8" possible before snow tapers midday Wednesday; maybe 10" of snow in a few spots.
Winter Storm Warnings with Blizzard Warnings south of MSP. Wednesday travel will be a mess
50s today, rain tomorrow changes over to wet snow Tuesday night, with snow continuing through midday Wednesday. Should be plowable, especially south/east of MSP, where a Winter Storm Watch is posted
Snow + winds gusting over 40 mph Wednesday AM should make for a fun commute 👍
Snow + winds gusting over 40 mph Wednesday AM should make for a fun commute 👍
March 3, 2025 at 1:24 PM
50s today, rain tomorrow changes over to wet snow Tuesday night, with snow continuing through midday Wednesday. Should be plowable, especially south/east of MSP, where a Winter Storm Watch is posted
Snow + winds gusting over 40 mph Wednesday AM should make for a fun commute 👍
Snow + winds gusting over 40 mph Wednesday AM should make for a fun commute 👍
The US experiences more severe weather than any nation on Earth. NOAA has been up to the task (death tolls have been falling due to timely warnings and collaboration with local meteorologists).
Firing 800-1000 experts from NOAA is a huge step backwards. This isn't efficiency. It's insanity.
FAFO
Firing 800-1000 experts from NOAA is a huge step backwards. This isn't efficiency. It's insanity.
FAFO
February 28, 2025 at 12:54 PM
The US experiences more severe weather than any nation on Earth. NOAA has been up to the task (death tolls have been falling due to timely warnings and collaboration with local meteorologists).
Firing 800-1000 experts from NOAA is a huge step backwards. This isn't efficiency. It's insanity.
FAFO
Firing 800-1000 experts from NOAA is a huge step backwards. This isn't efficiency. It's insanity.
FAFO
"Muddy Vortex" shaping up with light rain later today into Wednesday and milder than average temperatures into at least mid-March. At least the metro may have seen the last subzero lows of winter.
Both GFS and ECMWF show a 60-degree spike in 2 weeks. Early spring anyone?
Both GFS and ECMWF show a 60-degree spike in 2 weeks. Early spring anyone?
February 25, 2025 at 1:59 PM
"Muddy Vortex" shaping up with light rain later today into Wednesday and milder than average temperatures into at least mid-March. At least the metro may have seen the last subzero lows of winter.
Both GFS and ECMWF show a 60-degree spike in 2 weeks. Early spring anyone?
Both GFS and ECMWF show a 60-degree spike in 2 weeks. Early spring anyone?
A week ago today the metro high was -2F with windchills in the -30s. Today: low 50s, typical for early April. It will feel about 85-90 degrees warmer than it did a week ago
#muddyvortex
#muddyvortex
February 24, 2025 at 2:57 PM
A week ago today the metro high was -2F with windchills in the -30s. Today: low 50s, typical for early April. It will feel about 85-90 degrees warmer than it did a week ago
#muddyvortex
#muddyvortex
Factoring wind chill: next week should feel 70-80F degrees warmer than it does out there right now. 50F in southern Minnesota is not out of the question.
Absolutely insane temperature extremes 😳
Absolutely insane temperature extremes 😳
February 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Factoring wind chill: next week should feel 70-80F degrees warmer than it does out there right now. 50F in southern Minnesota is not out of the question.
Absolutely insane temperature extremes 😳
Absolutely insane temperature extremes 😳
1-3" powder from this afternoon into early Saturday. No big deal. Followed by a 4-day slow dance with the Polar Vortex: Monday and Tuesday the coldest days in Minnesota. All models bring milder, Pacific air back into town last week of February with 30s, shot at 40+
This too shall pass 💔
This too shall pass 💔
February 14, 2025 at 2:22 PM
1-3" powder from this afternoon into early Saturday. No big deal. Followed by a 4-day slow dance with the Polar Vortex: Monday and Tuesday the coldest days in Minnesota. All models bring milder, Pacific air back into town last week of February with 30s, shot at 40+
This too shall pass 💔
This too shall pass 💔
GFS and other models consistent with a late-month thaw.
Here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations
Here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations
February 13, 2025 at 4:36 PM
GFS and other models consistent with a late-month thaw.
Here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations
Here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations