I found the campaign in the Netherlands very frustrating and was even more annoyed by all the hot takes suggesting the result marked a defeat for the populists, so I tried to write my anger away open.substack.com/pub/twentyfo...
False choice
"Victory" for the Dutch centre is welcome but Pyrrhic
open.substack.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:09 AM
I found the campaign in the Netherlands very frustrating and was even more annoyed by all the hot takes suggesting the result marked a defeat for the populists, so I tried to write my anger away open.substack.com/pub/twentyfo...
Complete coincidence that the European Commission decided to demonstrate the benefits of the tariff ceiling they negotiated with the US with a comparison with a country with a 10% tariff. It could refer to either Brazil or the United Kingdom, wonder which one they were thinking of.
August 21, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Complete coincidence that the European Commission decided to demonstrate the benefits of the tariff ceiling they negotiated with the US with a comparison with a country with a 10% tariff. It could refer to either Brazil or the United Kingdom, wonder which one they were thinking of.
The German people have spoken: they want their Schwarze Null and crumbling infrastructure back
German Chancellors: approval ratings after 100 days in office
August 13, 2025 at 7:19 AM
The German people have spoken: they want their Schwarze Null and crumbling infrastructure back
A classic bit of EuroCope to suggest the Europeans caving to Trump was due to strategic errors. In reality, they're unwilling to suffer the economic pain required to do so. The French should know this after they folded instantly when Trump threatened to tariff wine earlier this year.
🚨 BREAKING: French President Emanuel Macron said the EU failed to leverage its massive single market and sufficiently scare the US into accepting a better deal than the one it reached Sunday.
🔗 ow.ly/8Et450Wxjwz
🔗 ow.ly/8Et450Wxjwz
July 30, 2025 at 1:30 PM
A classic bit of EuroCope to suggest the Europeans caving to Trump was due to strategic errors. In reality, they're unwilling to suffer the economic pain required to do so. The French should know this after they folded instantly when Trump threatened to tariff wine earlier this year.
He did say recently that the EU is nastier than China, so a higher tariff than China is just simple consistency
May 23, 2025 at 11:59 AM
He did say recently that the EU is nastier than China, so a higher tariff than China is just simple consistency
In our podcast this week @timgwynnjones.bsky.social and I discuss several good reasons for why the ECB might hold at 2% for a while after its June cut, and also I point out that it’s “a nice round number”
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/m...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/m...
Central banks:
Podcast Episode · Medley Advisors · 09/05/2025 · 24m
podcasts.apple.com
May 9, 2025 at 10:49 AM
In our podcast this week @timgwynnjones.bsky.social and I discuss several good reasons for why the ECB might hold at 2% for a while after its June cut, and also I point out that it’s “a nice round number”
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/m...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/m...
Visiting Switzerland is a strange experience. Everything is very nice, the trains run on time, and there’s always a mountain in the background. But most alienating of all is seeing banks advertise with 5 year mortgages rates of 1.17%
April 28, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Visiting Switzerland is a strange experience. Everything is very nice, the trains run on time, and there’s always a mountain in the background. But most alienating of all is seeing banks advertise with 5 year mortgages rates of 1.17%
Can’t wait to pay more for my iPhone in Europe just so Tim Apple can compress his margin in the US to avoid angering Trump on.ft.com/4lp5MZT
Sony makes ‘tough decision’ to raise PlayStation 5 prices in Europe and UK
Japanese group cites ‘challenging economic environment’ as Trump’s tariffs throw supply chains into uncertainty
on.ft.com
April 14, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Can’t wait to pay more for my iPhone in Europe just so Tim Apple can compress his margin in the US to avoid angering Trump on.ft.com/4lp5MZT
Reposted by Pepijn Bergsen
We've already established that the formula is ... well ... nonsense. But in the Swiss case, the figures are inflated by investors moving gold into the US at the end of last year due to - that's right! - the threat of tariffs. Exclude those flows and Swiss exports would be subject to 20%.
April 3, 2025 at 9:04 AM
We've already established that the formula is ... well ... nonsense. But in the Swiss case, the figures are inflated by investors moving gold into the US at the end of last year due to - that's right! - the threat of tariffs. Exclude those flows and Swiss exports would be subject to 20%.
Reposted by Pepijn Bergsen
Very important intervention by @catherinedevries.bsky.social — now that elite consensus on strengthening European militaries has emerged, it is crucial to create genuine mass support, which means being open about the costs it will take.
Security in Europe will mean sacrifices for citizens
Europeans must decide whether they’re willing to bear the costs of shaping their future, or risk having it shaped for them.
www.politico.eu
April 2, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Very important intervention by @catherinedevries.bsky.social — now that elite consensus on strengthening European militaries has emerged, it is crucial to create genuine mass support, which means being open about the costs it will take.
So far European rearmament has meant more financial engineering than military engineering. Interesting to see the UK considering joint European defence spending but just moving ever more off-budget is not going to avoid the difficult budgeting choices caused by rearmament.
on.ft.com/3Yf2bDL
on.ft.com/3Yf2bDL
UK floats plan for joint European fund to ‘stockpile’ weapons
‘Supranational’ vehicle would purchase for participating states at more favourable borrowing rates
on.ft.com
April 2, 2025 at 1:50 PM
So far European rearmament has meant more financial engineering than military engineering. Interesting to see the UK considering joint European defence spending but just moving ever more off-budget is not going to avoid the difficult budgeting choices caused by rearmament.
on.ft.com/3Yf2bDL
on.ft.com/3Yf2bDL
I feel for the future economic historians who have to explain that this wasn’t even because the president’s adviser owned a domestic car firm
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Says He’ll Hit Auto Imports With 25% Tariff in Trade Fight
President Donald Trump said he will be implementing a 25% tariff on auto imports, expanding a trade war designed to bring more manufacturing jobs to the US and setting the stage for an even broader pu...
www.bloomberg.com
March 26, 2025 at 9:33 PM
I feel for the future economic historians who have to explain that this wasn’t even because the president’s adviser owned a domestic car firm
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Silly to exclude the UK from this unless you’re 100% certain there will be an EU-UK security agreement very soon on.ft.com/3DEIpux
EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund
Victory for France-backed ‘Buy European’ approach to defence spending
on.ft.com
March 19, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Silly to exclude the UK from this unless you’re 100% certain there will be an EU-UK security agreement very soon on.ft.com/3DEIpux
If we're doing austerity in the UK the first thing that needs to go is these stupid monthly GDP release. The debate here was already overly focused on headline growth rates and has now been completely poisoned by these largely meaningless but overinterpreted estimates
UK economy shrinks unexpectedly in blow to Rachel Reeves
UK economy shrinks unexpectedly in blow to Rachel Reeves
ONS data showing 0.1% fall in GDP in January comes less than two weeks before chancellor’s spring statement
The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in January, dealing a blow to Rachel Reeves before the spring statement later this month.
In a surprise to City…
www.theguardian.com
March 14, 2025 at 9:53 AM
If we're doing austerity in the UK the first thing that needs to go is these stupid monthly GDP release. The debate here was already overly focused on headline growth rates and has now been completely poisoned by these largely meaningless but overinterpreted estimates
Reposted by Pepijn Bergsen
First economists are speaking of a 'real game changer'.
To me, exempting defence from the debt brake is even better than a new special fund, as it allows for long-term planning, as the old special fund forced the government to spend quickly always under the shadow 'but what when the fund runs out'
To me, exempting defence from the debt brake is even better than a new special fund, as it allows for long-term planning, as the old special fund forced the government to spend quickly always under the shadow 'but what when the fund runs out'
March 4, 2025 at 6:21 PM
First economists are speaking of a 'real game changer'.
To me, exempting defence from the debt brake is even better than a new special fund, as it allows for long-term planning, as the old special fund forced the government to spend quickly always under the shadow 'but what when the fund runs out'
To me, exempting defence from the debt brake is even better than a new special fund, as it allows for long-term planning, as the old special fund forced the government to spend quickly always under the shadow 'but what when the fund runs out'
Incredible how fast things have moved in Germany. From no debt brake reform two weeks ago to exempting defence spending above 1% from it and announcing a €500bn infrastructure fund that nobody had even considered last week
March 4, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Incredible how fast things have moved in Germany. From no debt brake reform two weeks ago to exempting defence spending above 1% from it and announcing a €500bn infrastructure fund that nobody had even considered last week
I thought the video Macron posted about his charm offensive was actually pretty cool, Trump clearly doesn’t agree
Trump says he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from the EU
https://www.ft.com/content/2f0288f6-3f6a-4334-b666-3f0122981842
https://www.ft.com/content/2f0288f6-3f6a-4334-b666-3f0122981842
Trump says he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from the EU
US president says levies will target auto sector and also be applied ‘generally’
www.ft.com
February 26, 2025 at 5:54 PM
I thought the video Macron posted about his charm offensive was actually pretty cool, Trump clearly doesn’t agree
Interesting that inflation didn’t play much of a role, only 5% of Germans mentioned it as the most important theme in their decision
February 23, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Interesting that inflation didn’t play much of a role, only 5% of Germans mentioned it as the most important theme in their decision
Reposted by Pepijn Bergsen
More importantly, as always, SPD is NOT the main supplier of new AfD voters.
Most new AfD voters did not vote in 2021 (not only first voters!).
Right-wing parties CDU and FDP were main suppliers.
Despite hype, BSW took virtually nothing from AfD.
Most new AfD voters did not vote in 2021 (not only first voters!).
Right-wing parties CDU and FDP were main suppliers.
Despite hype, BSW took virtually nothing from AfD.
February 23, 2025 at 5:49 PM
More importantly, as always, SPD is NOT the main supplier of new AfD voters.
Most new AfD voters did not vote in 2021 (not only first voters!).
Right-wing parties CDU and FDP were main suppliers.
Despite hype, BSW took virtually nothing from AfD.
Most new AfD voters did not vote in 2021 (not only first voters!).
Right-wing parties CDU and FDP were main suppliers.
Despite hype, BSW took virtually nothing from AfD.
Reposted by Pepijn Bergsen
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
February 23, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
Think this explains the rather mediocre CDU result: German voters don't forget and still blame them for the countries' problems to just about the same extent as the SPD and Greens but the CDU is seen as responsible the high number of refugees
February 23, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Think this explains the rather mediocre CDU result: German voters don't forget and still blame them for the countries' problems to just about the same extent as the SPD and Greens but the CDU is seen as responsible the high number of refugees
Basically a bog-standard European election result
Germany, Exit poll Infratest dimap:
Seat projection
CDU/CSU-EPP: 211 (+14)
AfD-ESN: 142 (+59)
SPD-S&D: 116 (-90)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 98 (-20)
LINKE-LEFT: 62 (+23)
SSW-G/EFA: 1
FDP-RE: 0 (-91)
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
Seat projection
CDU/CSU-EPP: 211 (+14)
AfD-ESN: 142 (+59)
SPD-S&D: 116 (-90)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 98 (-20)
LINKE-LEFT: 62 (+23)
SSW-G/EFA: 1
FDP-RE: 0 (-91)
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
February 23, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Basically a bog-standard European election result
Substantial increase in turnout in Germany, which is likely distorted somewhat by the large share of postal votes in 2021. Hard to say what this means but a superficial reading could be good for AfD, also because turnout is up more in eastern states.
Bundestagswahl • Zwischenstand der #Wahlbeteiligung um 14 Uhr laut Bundeswahlleiterin:
52,0 % (ohne Briefwähler)
Zum Vergleich
BTW 2021: 36,5 %
BTW 2017: 41,1 %
BTW 2013: 41,4 %
Diese und frühere Zahlen
🔗 www.wahlrecht.de/news/2025/bu...
#btw25 #Bundestagswahl2025
52,0 % (ohne Briefwähler)
Zum Vergleich
BTW 2021: 36,5 %
BTW 2017: 41,1 %
BTW 2013: 41,4 %
Diese und frühere Zahlen
🔗 www.wahlrecht.de/news/2025/bu...
#btw25 #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Substantial increase in turnout in Germany, which is likely distorted somewhat by the large share of postal votes in 2021. Hard to say what this means but a superficial reading could be good for AfD, also because turnout is up more in eastern states.