You can also find some more details on the project webpage:
www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/stud...

On FSM during Year 11. Some of these students won't have made it to sixth form.

HE participation among free school meals eligible students has also dipped again for the second year running. However the gap between FSM and non-FSM has narrowed slightly, due to a larger dip in non-FSM participation.

This could suggest that due to differences in the way that teacher assessment grades were implemented in 2021, students were much more likely to meet the conditions of conditional offers set by high-tariff universities that year...

We can also see more clearly now what happened at 'high tariff' unis during Covid. Participation spiked from 13% (2020 A levels cohort) to 15.3% (2021 A levels cohort) before returning to business as usual at 12.8% (2022 A levels cohort)...

The DfE have been publishing these stats for 15+ years. Every year so far the proportion of state school pupils progressing to HE by age 19 has gone up. This year (those who took GCSEs in 2020 and A levels in 2022) is the first year that HE participation has gone down, from 46.9% to 45.8%...

Thanks @dkernohan.bsky.social!

Thanks @unabridgedopinions.com!

You can also read my full research article on this subject here...
doi.org/10.1080/0267...

We're considering some work online these lines in future, but for it to work best it's likely to involve a fresh new analysis. Drop me an email and perhaps I can keep you updated.

Thanks Tim - you should check out this research from Uni of Exeter too if you haven't already seen it...
www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/12...