Pau Grau-Vilalta
@paugrau.bsky.social
🛠 PhDing @eui-sps.bsky.social
www.paugrau.cat
www.paugrau.cat
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
A hidden gem for PolSci in an Econ journal: mainstream right-wing parties seem to capture only a fraction (!) of the far-right vote when the latter don't run in an election. Crucially, left parties seem to gain votes! A key finding for understanding potential coalitions doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
November 28, 2025 at 11:22 AM
A hidden gem for PolSci in an Econ journal: mainstream right-wing parties seem to capture only a fraction (!) of the far-right vote when the latter don't run in an election. Crucially, left parties seem to gain votes! A key finding for understanding potential coalitions doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Gaza: Study Reveals Unprecedented Losses of Life & Life Expectancy
Researchers from MPIDR & the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) investigated the impact of the conflict in Gaza on mortality. Life expectancy 2024 fell to nearly half the level expected without the war. www.demogr.mpg.de/go/GazaLE
Researchers from MPIDR & the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) investigated the impact of the conflict in Gaza on mortality. Life expectancy 2024 fell to nearly half the level expected without the war. www.demogr.mpg.de/go/GazaLE
November 25, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Gaza: Study Reveals Unprecedented Losses of Life & Life Expectancy
Researchers from MPIDR & the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) investigated the impact of the conflict in Gaza on mortality. Life expectancy 2024 fell to nearly half the level expected without the war. www.demogr.mpg.de/go/GazaLE
Researchers from MPIDR & the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) investigated the impact of the conflict in Gaza on mortality. Life expectancy 2024 fell to nearly half the level expected without the war. www.demogr.mpg.de/go/GazaLE
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
I personally think this is a "harder problem" than we care to admit.
So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?
Here are some readings that might help. 👇
So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?
Here are some readings that might help. 👇
Doing non-causal inference (and being explicit about it), yet using a causal word as second word in the title.
If you pay Nature € 10.690, they will publish this in Nature Ageing.
I can tell you what I think of that for free.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
If you pay Nature € 10.690, they will publish this in Nature Ageing.
I can tell you what I think of that for free.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
November 11, 2025 at 11:24 AM
I personally think this is a "harder problem" than we care to admit.
So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?
Here are some readings that might help. 👇
So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?
Here are some readings that might help. 👇
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 12, 2025 at 10:31 AM
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu
October 23, 2025 at 2:03 PM
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
Barcelona this week! Today at @politiquesupf.bsky.social (IPA) I’m presenting joint work with Alejandro López Peceño and @eliasdinas.bsky.social on how Civil War refugees mobilized the left in postwar France. Next Thursday @ IBEI JCPOP: career incentives vs. ideology in Fascist Italy’s surveillance.
October 29, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Barcelona this week! Today at @politiquesupf.bsky.social (IPA) I’m presenting joint work with Alejandro López Peceño and @eliasdinas.bsky.social on how Civil War refugees mobilized the left in postwar France. Next Thursday @ IBEI JCPOP: career incentives vs. ideology in Fascist Italy’s surveillance.
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Forthcoming in the AER: "Gender Differences in Economics Seminars" by Pascaline Dupas, Amy Handlan, Alicia Sasser Modestino, Muriel Niederle, Mateo Seré, Haoyu Sheng, Justin Wolfers, and Seminar Dynamics Collective. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Gender Differences in Economics Seminars
(Forthcoming Article) - We assess whether men and women are treated differently when presenting their economics research. We collected data across thousands of seminars, job market talks and conferenc...
www.aeaweb.org
October 21, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "Gender Differences in Economics Seminars" by Pascaline Dupas, Amy Handlan, Alicia Sasser Modestino, Muriel Niederle, Mateo Seré, Haoyu Sheng, Justin Wolfers, and Seminar Dynamics Collective. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Regrettably relevant research today
Disguised Repression: Targeting Opponents with Nonpolitical Crimes to Undermine Dissent
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Disguised Repression: Targeting Opponents with Nonpolitical Crimes to Undermine Dissent
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
October 9, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Regrettably relevant research today
Disguised Repression: Targeting Opponents with Nonpolitical Crimes to Undermine Dissent
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Disguised Repression: Targeting Opponents with Nonpolitical Crimes to Undermine Dissent
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Colleagues have backed up the point with data and infographics. The answer is no: political violence in the US is if anything declining, not rising. The far right commits more than the far left, but both are rare, and fewer than 10% of Americans endorse violence for political goals.
September 13, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Colleagues have backed up the point with data and infographics. The answer is no: political violence in the US is if anything declining, not rising. The far right commits more than the far left, but both are rare, and fewer than 10% of Americans endorse violence for political goals.
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
"Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds"
Or does it? Let's take a look at this "study"...
www.theguardian.com/food/2025/se...
Or does it? Let's take a look at this "study"...
www.theguardian.com/food/2025/se...
Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds
Researchers say low- and no-calorie sweeteners appear to affect thinking and memory in middle age
www.theguardian.com
September 5, 2025 at 4:46 PM
"Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds"
Or does it? Let's take a look at this "study"...
www.theguardian.com/food/2025/se...
Or does it? Let's take a look at this "study"...
www.theguardian.com/food/2025/se...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
🧪 We ran a preregistered endorsement experiment with 4,000+ Spaniards.
We tested whether VOX voters support funding for cultural orgs, including the Francisco Franco Foundation (which glorifies the dictatorship).
We tested whether VOX voters support funding for cultural orgs, including the Francisco Franco Foundation (which glorifies the dictatorship).
August 28, 2025 at 7:55 AM
🧪 We ran a preregistered endorsement experiment with 4,000+ Spaniards.
We tested whether VOX voters support funding for cultural orgs, including the Francisco Franco Foundation (which glorifies the dictatorship).
We tested whether VOX voters support funding for cultural orgs, including the Francisco Franco Foundation (which glorifies the dictatorship).
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Please share this thread. It is important that political scientists, in Europe and across the world, understand why EPSS exists and why we are encouraging people to attend our inaugural conference, in Belfast next June.
EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026.
😵💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.
👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.
A short 🧵
😵💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.
👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.
A short 🧵
August 7, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Please share this thread. It is important that political scientists, in Europe and across the world, understand why EPSS exists and why we are encouraging people to attend our inaugural conference, in Belfast next June.
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Been a busy year in the data mines.📊 Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem.
All charts free to use:
All charts free to use:
On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward
A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.
open.substack.com
July 19, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Been a busy year in the data mines.📊 Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem.
All charts free to use:
All charts free to use:
"This paper finds that Jews are included in “the people” when this is ideologically conducive to the parties, when it can appear to justify Islamophobia and anti-immigration sentiment, and when antisemitism can be used to argue that “the elite” are ignorant and incompetent"
Happy to share my first published article based on my PhD in Party Politics with @journals.sagepub.com in open access!
doi.org/10.1177/1354...
doi.org/10.1177/1354...
July 10, 2025 at 8:16 AM
"This paper finds that Jews are included in “the people” when this is ideologically conducive to the parties, when it can appear to justify Islamophobia and anti-immigration sentiment, and when antisemitism can be used to argue that “the elite” are ignorant and incompetent"
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Currently in FirstView: In “The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Political Science,” @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social, and Hillel David Soifer discuss the MAUP and how the size of spatial units and the location of their borders affect empirical results.
July 7, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Political Science,” @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social, and Hillel David Soifer discuss the MAUP and how the size of spatial units and the location of their borders affect empirical results.
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
On the one hand, a complex sense of how race, ethnicity, nationalism, migration, bias, displacement, intermarriage and acculturation forge an identity and, on the other, puzzlement that decades of this history doesn’t fit cleanly in a five-item box.
The Mamdani Columbia story is an example of a microgenre where ethnic communities have had complex internal conversations about identity for generations and white people pratfall into them to go "what the fuck, why are you trying to trick me"
July 5, 2025 at 8:37 PM
On the one hand, a complex sense of how race, ethnicity, nationalism, migration, bias, displacement, intermarriage and acculturation forge an identity and, on the other, puzzlement that decades of this history doesn’t fit cleanly in a five-item box.
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
July 1, 2025 at 2:44 PM
New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
What shapes repression levels? We argue that bureaucrats' incentives play a major role.
Come to the presentation of the work with Lorenzo Vicari and Andrea Xamo at #EPSA2025 today.
🗓️ Friday 11:20-13:00
📍 Room -1.A.03 | Panel P7-S164
Come to the presentation of the work with Lorenzo Vicari and Andrea Xamo at #EPSA2025 today.
🗓️ Friday 11:20-13:00
📍 Room -1.A.03 | Panel P7-S164
June 27, 2025 at 7:00 AM
What shapes repression levels? We argue that bureaucrats' incentives play a major role.
Come to the presentation of the work with Lorenzo Vicari and Andrea Xamo at #EPSA2025 today.
🗓️ Friday 11:20-13:00
📍 Room -1.A.03 | Panel P7-S164
Come to the presentation of the work with Lorenzo Vicari and Andrea Xamo at #EPSA2025 today.
🗓️ Friday 11:20-13:00
📍 Room -1.A.03 | Panel P7-S164
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
This is fantastic. Very excited by this development in European Political Science.
Please come and join us. Get involved. Sign up to the listserv. Etc
Please come and join us. Get involved. Sign up to the listserv. Etc
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨
We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.
🔗 epssnet.org
Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.
🧵
We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.
🔗 epssnet.org
Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.
🧵
June 26, 2025 at 5:10 PM
This is fantastic. Very excited by this development in European Political Science.
Please come and join us. Get involved. Sign up to the listserv. Etc
Please come and join us. Get involved. Sign up to the listserv. Etc
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
El Gobierno catalán anuncia préstamos a jóvenes para pagar la entrada de su primera vivienda (incentivar la demanda). Cuando hicieron una política similar en Reino Unido (help-to-buy):
❌Aumentaron 8% precios.
❌No aumentó la oferta.
❌Los promotores se apropiaron de toda la ayuda.
❌Aumentaron 8% precios.
❌No aumentó la oferta.
❌Los promotores se apropiaron de toda la ayuda.
June 17, 2025 at 5:02 AM
El Gobierno catalán anuncia préstamos a jóvenes para pagar la entrada de su primera vivienda (incentivar la demanda). Cuando hicieron una política similar en Reino Unido (help-to-buy):
❌Aumentaron 8% precios.
❌No aumentó la oferta.
❌Los promotores se apropiaron de toda la ayuda.
❌Aumentaron 8% precios.
❌No aumentó la oferta.
❌Los promotores se apropiaron de toda la ayuda.
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Re-upping this, as I've had a few conversations since, and think we're on to something about how the Right coordinates a coalition against the Left.
On Riker, and breaking coalitions by adding cross-cutting issues, I recommend The Art of Political Manipulation: yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
On Riker, and breaking coalitions by adding cross-cutting issues, I recommend The Art of Political Manipulation: yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
June 18, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Re-upping this, as I've had a few conversations since, and think we're on to something about how the Right coordinates a coalition against the Left.
On Riker, and breaking coalitions by adding cross-cutting issues, I recommend The Art of Political Manipulation: yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
On Riker, and breaking coalitions by adding cross-cutting issues, I recommend The Art of Political Manipulation: yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
📣 New episode!
What happens when there are multiple rules of law - when state law overlaps with religious and customary law? What does this mean for marriages, child custody, and even murder?
Egor Lazarev discusses his research on postwar Chechnya:
www.scopeconditionspodcast.com/episodes/epi...
What happens when there are multiple rules of law - when state law overlaps with religious and customary law? What does this mean for marriages, child custody, and even murder?
Egor Lazarev discusses his research on postwar Chechnya:
www.scopeconditionspodcast.com/episodes/epi...
EPISODE 3.10: Rules of Law, with Egor Lazarev — Scope Conditions Podcast
Political analysts are thinking a lot these days about the rule of law: where it comes from, what sustains it, how it can break down. Those are hard enough questions in themselves. And, yet — they sim...
www.scopeconditionspodcast.com
June 17, 2025 at 2:32 PM
📣 New episode!
What happens when there are multiple rules of law - when state law overlaps with religious and customary law? What does this mean for marriages, child custody, and even murder?
Egor Lazarev discusses his research on postwar Chechnya:
www.scopeconditionspodcast.com/episodes/epi...
What happens when there are multiple rules of law - when state law overlaps with religious and customary law? What does this mean for marriages, child custody, and even murder?
Egor Lazarev discusses his research on postwar Chechnya:
www.scopeconditionspodcast.com/episodes/epi...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
We have been discussing amongst ourselves how AJPS should handle the issue of artificial intelligence (AI) in the creation and review of journal submissions. These are important issues we feel we must address. Read the AJPS AI Policy for authors and reviewers here: ajps.org/2025/06/17/a...
AJPS AI Policy
We have been discussing amongst ourselves how AJPS should handle the issue of artificial intelligence (AI) in the creation and review of journal submissions. These are important issues we feel we m…
ajps.org
June 17, 2025 at 2:02 PM
We have been discussing amongst ourselves how AJPS should handle the issue of artificial intelligence (AI) in the creation and review of journal submissions. These are important issues we feel we must address. Read the AJPS AI Policy for authors and reviewers here: ajps.org/2025/06/17/a...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Based on crowd-sourced records of No Kings Day event turnout, and extrapolating for the cities where we don't have data yet, it looks like roughly 4-6 million people protested Trump across the U.S. yesterday. That's nearly 2% of the U.S. pop!
Mobilized anti-Trump resistance is exceeding 2017 levels
Mobilized anti-Trump resistance is exceeding 2017 levels
"No Kings Day" protests turn out millions
Our unofficial estimate is that around 4 million people attended a protest event yesterday. Anti-Trump resistance is outpacing 2017.
www.gelliottmorris.com
June 15, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Based on crowd-sourced records of No Kings Day event turnout, and extrapolating for the cities where we don't have data yet, it looks like roughly 4-6 million people protested Trump across the U.S. yesterday. That's nearly 2% of the U.S. pop!
Mobilized anti-Trump resistance is exceeding 2017 levels
Mobilized anti-Trump resistance is exceeding 2017 levels