Or Tuttnauer
@ortuttnauer.com
Political Scientist at MZES Uni. Mannheim. Traveler at heart. Father of three. Casual fan of NBA basketball, Marvel, Tolkien.
Good stuff right here by @dannychau.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Good stuff right here by @dannychau.bsky.social
Interestingly, voters who believe their preferred formateur (PM candidate) will lose behave similarly to those who are uncertain, acting in what we call "puncher's chance" mentality. Both groups display higher rates of strategic behaviour (shown here relying on 6 🇩🇪 election surveys)
3/4
3/4
October 2, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Interestingly, voters who believe their preferred formateur (PM candidate) will lose behave similarly to those who are uncertain, acting in what we call "puncher's chance" mentality. Both groups display higher rates of strategic behaviour (shown here relying on 6 🇩🇪 election surveys)
3/4
3/4
Our cross-national analysis (@cses.bsky.social) shows: when there is uncertainty over which party will lead the next government, voters are more likely to vote for the two largest parties (left figure). This effect diminishes when partisan attachments are especially strong (right figure).
2/4
2/4
October 2, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Our cross-national analysis (@cses.bsky.social) shows: when there is uncertainty over which party will lead the next government, voters are more likely to vote for the two largest parties (left figure). This effect diminishes when partisan attachments are especially strong (right figure).
2/4
2/4
The Israeli #polisci association just issued a statement opposing the government's plan to continue the conquest of Gaza, calling for an immediate negotiation for a permanent ceasefire.
Main points (my summary):
Main points (my summary):
August 11, 2025 at 11:55 AM
The Israeli #polisci association just issued a statement opposing the government's plan to continue the conquest of Gaza, calling for an immediate negotiation for a permanent ceasefire.
Main points (my summary):
Main points (my summary):
5 Israeli universit heads in a letter to PM Netanyahu calling him to ״to instruct the IDF [...] to intensify their efforts [...] to resolve the terrible famine in Gaza, which is causing immense suffering to innocent people, including children and infants.״ Full translated text in Alt
July 28, 2025 at 11:00 AM
5 Israeli universit heads in a letter to PM Netanyahu calling him to ״to instruct the IDF [...] to intensify their efforts [...] to resolve the terrible famine in Gaza, which is causing immense suffering to innocent people, including children and infants.״ Full translated text in Alt
… we visited every time we were in Israel and he always seemed happy to see us, but equally happy to go back home (to the AC), which is a good thing.
He coupled athleticism with longevity, and died at 14, tonight. He was always afraid of vets, so it’s good that he died in his sleep, on his couch ❤️
He coupled athleticism with longevity, and died at 14, tonight. He was always afraid of vets, so it’s good that he died in his sleep, on his couch ❤️
July 3, 2025 at 3:30 PM
… we visited every time we were in Israel and he always seemed happy to see us, but equally happy to go back home (to the AC), which is a good thing.
He coupled athleticism with longevity, and died at 14, tonight. He was always afraid of vets, so it’s good that he died in his sleep, on his couch ❤️
He coupled athleticism with longevity, and died at 14, tonight. He was always afraid of vets, so it’s good that he died in his sleep, on his couch ❤️
Bali wasn’t my 1st dog, but he was my children’s older brother. He was a superdog, beautiful and mega-athletic. He was a gentle giant, great with kids - family & strangers, and playful with other dogs. Life (the move to Germany) made it so he spent the last 7 years in another home…
July 3, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Bali wasn’t my 1st dog, but he was my children’s older brother. He was a superdog, beautiful and mega-athletic. He was a gentle giant, great with kids - family & strangers, and playful with other dogs. Life (the move to Germany) made it so he spent the last 7 years in another home…
In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)
June 28, 2025 at 8:53 AM
In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)
So, Lufthansa, you’re telling me I can cooperate and for sure lose at least 30 mins waiting for my luggage, OR not cooperate, and *maybe* lose ~10 mins while you put others’ luggage into the hold?
Nah, pass.
Nah, pass.
June 25, 2025 at 11:23 AM
So, Lufthansa, you’re telling me I can cooperate and for sure lose at least 30 mins waiting for my luggage, OR not cooperate, and *maybe* lose ~10 mins while you put others’ luggage into the hold?
Nah, pass.
Nah, pass.
לפחות הפעם הוא זכר את השם שלו
June 19, 2025 at 3:09 PM
לפחות הפעם הוא זכר את השם שלו
So I guess this is an ad for performance-enhancement, but… like, athletic, or… you know
June 18, 2025 at 7:16 PM
So I guess this is an ad for performance-enhancement, but… like, athletic, or… you know
כוס אמכם הצולעת לא יכולתם להגיד משהו, שלא נבוא?!
June 13, 2025 at 1:57 AM
כוס אמכם הצולעת לא יכולתם להגיד משהו, שלא נבוא?!
איבדנו גם את גרמניה, למי שתהה
May 26, 2025 at 1:44 PM
איבדנו גם את גרמניה, למי שתהה
My 7yo asked whether we’ll be flying to Israel with El-Al or…
May 10, 2025 at 3:02 PM
My 7yo asked whether we’ll be flying to Israel with El-Al or…
I don’t know, 2 days in advance feels like an un-vitation to me 😕
May 7, 2025 at 2:24 PM
I don’t know, 2 days in advance feels like an un-vitation to me 😕
הזמנו קראוון לקראת הטיול המתוכנן לנורבגיה בקיץ. עכשיו צריך לחזור לעבוד במקום להמשיך להסתכל על תמונות של הקראוון בארבעת החודשים הקרובים. השאלה היא: איך?! 🥺
April 28, 2025 at 2:06 PM
הזמנו קראוון לקראת הטיול המתוכנן לנורבגיה בקיץ. עכשיו צריך לחזור לעבוד במקום להמשיך להסתכל על תמונות של הקראוון בארבעת החודשים הקרובים. השאלה היא: איך?! 🥺
2 grant proposals * 80% ready each + clear skies = 🍺
April 11, 2025 at 4:19 PM
2 grant proposals * 80% ready each + clear skies = 🍺
I feel judged. But also, have you SEEN the present?
April 8, 2025 at 9:50 AM
I feel judged. But also, have you SEEN the present?
כל התמונות להמחשה בלבד


April 6, 2025 at 3:43 PM
כל התמונות להמחשה בלבד


Wow, extremely consistent
April 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Wow, extremely consistent