Olivia Ann Compton
@olivia-ann.bsky.social
Asst Prof of Economics @ USAFA (views are my own)
she/they
she/they
If trans people make up 0.5% of the population, then more cis people will be incorrectly ID'd than trans people correctly ID'd until they identifier has a 99.5% probability of correct ID. If trans people are 1.5% of population, the identifier needs a probability of 98.5%. 4/4
November 21, 2025 at 9:40 PM
If trans people make up 0.5% of the population, then more cis people will be incorrectly ID'd than trans people correctly ID'd until they identifier has a 99.5% probability of correct ID. If trans people are 1.5% of population, the identifier needs a probability of 98.5%. 4/4
The graph shows the percentage of people ID'd as trans who are in fact cis for a given odds of correct ID. Only 100% odds of correct ID result in no cis people being discriminated against. 3/4
November 21, 2025 at 9:40 PM
The graph shows the percentage of people ID'd as trans who are in fact cis for a given odds of correct ID. Only 100% odds of correct ID result in no cis people being discriminated against. 3/4
Assume the trans population is 1% of the overall population. If someone can correctly ID trans and cis people 99% of the time, they will incorrectly ID the same number of cis people as trans as they will correctly ID trans people as trans. Put another way, 50% are false positives (typr 1 error). 2/4
November 21, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Assume the trans population is 1% of the overall population. If someone can correctly ID trans and cis people 99% of the time, they will incorrectly ID the same number of cis people as trans as they will correctly ID trans people as trans. Put another way, 50% are false positives (typr 1 error). 2/4
Giving big spanfeller energy iygiygi
November 10, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Giving big spanfeller energy iygiygi
Real. The cognitive dissonance required at work these days is so exhausting.
November 7, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Real. The cognitive dissonance required at work these days is so exhausting.
I miss eastern washington so much.
October 28, 2025 at 8:37 PM
I miss eastern washington so much.
If you look at inflation expectations, they never went back to pre-covid levels, despite what the data shows. In addition, income and unemployment expectations for one year from now are not good.
October 27, 2025 at 11:51 PM
If you look at inflation expectations, they never went back to pre-covid levels, despite what the data shows. In addition, income and unemployment expectations for one year from now are not good.
Not sure exactly what you are looking to do, but hanging punctuation can be handled by microtype, which latexml can process. Otherwise, the source code for hanging should be fairly straightforward to implement using supported packages.
October 14, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Not sure exactly what you are looking to do, but hanging punctuation can be handled by microtype, which latexml can process. Otherwise, the source code for hanging should be fairly straightforward to implement using supported packages.
The lack of any consistent alignment is a dead giveaway. Centered at first glance, but actually aligned slightly left of center, but not consistently. Then the last two are aligned slightly right of center. Absolute slop.
October 12, 2025 at 10:50 PM
The lack of any consistent alignment is a dead giveaway. Centered at first glance, but actually aligned slightly left of center, but not consistently. Then the last two are aligned slightly right of center. Absolute slop.
A bunch of rich and powerful people were too stupid to look past her great grandfather's achievements, and the documentary spent its entire runtime trying to rationalize their brain rot to protect their image. The nepotism was so obvious.
August 10, 2025 at 6:16 PM
A bunch of rich and powerful people were too stupid to look past her great grandfather's achievements, and the documentary spent its entire runtime trying to rationalize their brain rot to protect their image. The nepotism was so obvious.
They've also uncritically adopted the phrase "biological boys" which is effective at conjuring parental concern, but trans girls are not boys nor are they "biologocal boys" especially if they are on puberty blockers and/or hormones. Anytime this phrasing is used, they need to push back immediately.
July 28, 2025 at 8:54 PM
They've also uncritically adopted the phrase "biological boys" which is effective at conjuring parental concern, but trans girls are not boys nor are they "biologocal boys" especially if they are on puberty blockers and/or hormones. Anytime this phrasing is used, they need to push back immediately.
It sounds like mercantilism, which seems to align with all the talk of expanding US borders.
April 12, 2025 at 8:55 PM
It sounds like mercantilism, which seems to align with all the talk of expanding US borders.