Neil O'Brian
@obrian.bsky.social
Assistant Prof | UNC at Chapel Hill | '24 Carnegie Fellow | Studying US public opinion, parties, Congress and American Political Development | Go Bills! | www.neilobrian.com
Some # of people on Medicaid don't know they are on Medicaid (www.pbs.org/newshour/hea...). Whether there is a partisan tilt to that, IDK. But a 2025 survey shows that just 4% of Rs say they are on Medicaid, which is less than Ds and Is. This could also be due to social desirability in polling, etc.
July 6, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Some # of people on Medicaid don't know they are on Medicaid (www.pbs.org/newshour/hea...). Whether there is a partisan tilt to that, IDK. But a 2025 survey shows that just 4% of Rs say they are on Medicaid, which is less than Ds and Is. This could also be due to social desirability in polling, etc.
Another year of marriage in the books. And what a year it has been! Looking forward to many more :)
June 24, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Another year of marriage in the books. And what a year it has been! Looking forward to many more :)
Nothing beats Oregon on a sunny day. (Clementine checking out South Sister on the left; Broken Top on the right.)
June 16, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Nothing beats Oregon on a sunny day. (Clementine checking out South Sister on the left; Broken Top on the right.)
The percent of Americans who report they are in "excellent" health has been declining for some time, but has accelerated since 2012. Source: GSS
June 10, 2025 at 12:03 AM
The percent of Americans who report they are in "excellent" health has been declining for some time, but has accelerated since 2012. Source: GSS
4th most read story in local newspaper is about the cat lounge in town. The fourth estate is healthy!
January 10, 2025 at 5:58 PM
4th most read story in local newspaper is about the cat lounge in town. The fourth estate is healthy!
The #1 read story in Eugene’s newspaper is about a dog who climbed Mt Hood. Local journalism is alive and well!
December 30, 2024 at 2:46 PM
The #1 read story in Eugene’s newspaper is about a dog who climbed Mt Hood. Local journalism is alive and well!
E-pub day is tomorrow (8/27 – hard copy still 9/25)! Roots of Polarization argues that contemporary polarization on “culture war” issues like abortion and gun control in the 1970s-1980s was molded by the racial realignment of the 1960s. #polisky
August 26, 2024 at 2:42 PM
E-pub day is tomorrow (8/27 – hard copy still 9/25)! Roots of Polarization argues that contemporary polarization on “culture war” issues like abortion and gun control in the 1970s-1980s was molded by the racial realignment of the 1960s. #polisky
Messages about Trump as a threat to democracy might be relatively less effective in bringing young voters to Biden camp. We primed Dems with messages about J6/democracy and find that young Ds not moved by that message but older Ds are. Article in The Conversation: tinyurl.com/387k7keu polisky
February 26, 2024 at 5:49 PM
Messages about Trump as a threat to democracy might be relatively less effective in bringing young voters to Biden camp. We primed Dems with messages about J6/democracy and find that young Ds not moved by that message but older Ds are. Article in The Conversation: tinyurl.com/387k7keu polisky
other polls have asked about that. this was about J6 as threat to democracy. i've pasted one, below (of Dems only(, that paints a broader picture. philip bump in wapo did an interesting piece on this a while ago among all young voters.
February 26, 2024 at 5:09 PM
other polls have asked about that. this was about J6 as threat to democracy. i've pasted one, below (of Dems only(, that paints a broader picture. philip bump in wapo did an interesting piece on this a while ago among all young voters.
Young people, including young Dems, are relatively less committed to democracy as an institution than older ppl and perhaps see J6 as less of a threat to democracy. Below is q about perception of J6 as a crisis/problem (asked in 2022). Responses are D only. polisky
February 26, 2024 at 3:08 AM
Young people, including young Dems, are relatively less committed to democracy as an institution than older ppl and perhaps see J6 as less of a threat to democracy. Below is q about perception of J6 as a crisis/problem (asked in 2022). Responses are D only. polisky
In 2011, pollsters asked why Civil War was fought. Republicans and people who favored Trump (Trump was in news bc of birtherism) said States Rights to slavery by ~20pp. Not clear that Haley's comments will cost support among primary voters. (Dems answers not much better.)
December 28, 2023 at 8:12 PM
In 2011, pollsters asked why Civil War was fought. Republicans and people who favored Trump (Trump was in news bc of birtherism) said States Rights to slavery by ~20pp. Not clear that Haley's comments will cost support among primary voters. (Dems answers not much better.)
I've gotta feeling ... that Buffalo's going to the Super Bowl!
December 11, 2023 at 12:57 AM
I've gotta feeling ... that Buffalo's going to the Super Bowl!
Office window fell off yesterday. Not to worry, it's been taped back on and I'm ready to get back to work. Political science rain or shine!
December 7, 2023 at 7:01 PM
Office window fell off yesterday. Not to worry, it's been taped back on and I'm ready to get back to work. Political science rain or shine!
Lot of volatility in young voter vote choice (perhaps esp hard to target likely voters?) ... still think many young voters will vote Biden once campaign heats up. Overheard a student say that "many of her friends didn't know Trump was running for prez in 2024."
November 19, 2023 at 5:26 PM
Lot of volatility in young voter vote choice (perhaps esp hard to target likely voters?) ... still think many young voters will vote Biden once campaign heats up. Overheard a student say that "many of her friends didn't know Trump was running for prez in 2024."
Big day in Congress class. Former member of Congress Peter DeFazio (served in OR-4 for 36 years!) spoke to students today. Among other things, we learned that Cong. DeFazio was a founding member of the craft beer caucus. Thank you Congressman!
November 3, 2023 at 1:10 AM
Big day in Congress class. Former member of Congress Peter DeFazio (served in OR-4 for 36 years!) spoke to students today. Among other things, we learned that Cong. DeFazio was a founding member of the craft beer caucus. Thank you Congressman!
A potential consequence of this is that Reps are less likely to seek mental healthcare. This shows up in survey data. Reps are nearly 8 pp less likely than Dems to visit a mental health professional after controlling for other factors (including self-reported mental health)
August 31, 2023 at 5:56 PM
A potential consequence of this is that Reps are less likely to seek mental healthcare. This shows up in survey data. Reps are nearly 8 pp less likely than Dems to visit a mental health professional after controlling for other factors (including self-reported mental health)
A partial explanation for this trust gap is that people perceive mental health professionals to be predominantly liberal and few perceive them to be conservative. This holds true for both D & R respondents. Graph below shows ideo perceptions of therapists by PID.
August 24, 2023 at 6:28 PM
A partial explanation for this trust gap is that people perceive mental health professionals to be predominantly liberal and few perceive them to be conservative. This holds true for both D & R respondents. Graph below shows ideo perceptions of therapists by PID.
Here is the kitchen sink regression. Data from 2023 convenience sample; would be interested if anyone knows of nat'l representative sample that asks similar Qs.
August 22, 2023 at 8:42 PM
Here is the kitchen sink regression. Data from 2023 convenience sample; would be interested if anyone knows of nat'l representative sample that asks similar Qs.
Large partisan trust-gap in mental health professionals. Dems about 19 pp more likely to say therapists can be trusted to do what is right almost all/most of the time. PID stronger predictor of trust than demos/insurance status/seeing a therapist/reported levels of happiness.
August 22, 2023 at 8:37 PM
Large partisan trust-gap in mental health professionals. Dems about 19 pp more likely to say therapists can be trusted to do what is right almost all/most of the time. PID stronger predictor of trust than demos/insurance status/seeing a therapist/reported levels of happiness.