Noam Vogt-Vincent
@nvogtvincent.co.uk
Associate Professor - Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford.
I'm interested in marine dispersal and the oceanic forcing of coral reef systems, past, present, and future.
nvogtvincent.co.uk
I'm interested in marine dispersal and the oceanic forcing of coral reef systems, past, present, and future.
nvogtvincent.co.uk
Climate change postdoctoral fellowship (JRF, 3Y) opportunity at Oxford! 🌍 Brilliant opportunity for anybody with <2 years postdoc experience by October 2026. Would be great to get coral people - there's a strong cluster of coral reef/climate change people here. 🪸
www.queens.ox.ac.uk/vacancies/ju...
www.queens.ox.ac.uk/vacancies/ju...
November 27, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Climate change postdoctoral fellowship (JRF, 3Y) opportunity at Oxford! 🌍 Brilliant opportunity for anybody with <2 years postdoc experience by October 2026. Would be great to get coral people - there's a strong cluster of coral reef/climate change people here. 🪸
www.queens.ox.ac.uk/vacancies/ju...
www.queens.ox.ac.uk/vacancies/ju...
Somebody had a very bad day at CEDA today...
November 19, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Somebody had a very bad day at CEDA today...
We're advertising a PhD project to investigate the hydrodynamics of Aldabra Atoll @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social! We are looking for a student with strong quantitative skills and interest in ocean modelling. Competitive funding available through ILESLA. Please share with anybody who may be interested!
October 22, 2025 at 9:32 AM
We're advertising a PhD project to investigate the hydrodynamics of Aldabra Atoll @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social! We are looking for a student with strong quantitative skills and interest in ocean modelling. Competitive funding available through ILESLA. Please share with anybody who may be interested!
@oxuniearthsci.bsky.social 2025 Bermuda trip is complete! We were super lucky to see a trichodesmium bloom in the Sargasso Sea and sampled an anoxic layer in Harrington Sound (usually fully mixed at this time). Bermuda is a perfect location to bridge modern and paleo ocean-climate processes!
September 28, 2025 at 8:51 PM
@oxuniearthsci.bsky.social 2025 Bermuda trip is complete! We were super lucky to see a trichodesmium bloom in the Sargasso Sea and sampled an anoxic layer in Harrington Sound (usually fully mixed at this time). Bermuda is a perfect location to bridge modern and paleo ocean-climate processes!
Geology day for the @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social Bermuda trip! Discussed evidence of eustatic sea level change through Bermudan aeolianites, beach rock, palaeosols and palmetto stumps, followed by a cave tour. Students did great despite challenging heat!
September 26, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Geology day for the @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social Bermuda trip! Discussed evidence of eustatic sea level change through Bermudan aeolianites, beach rock, palaeosols and palmetto stumps, followed by a cave tour. Students did great despite challenging heat!
Exciting Bermuda Day 3 for our @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social undergrads on board the RV Atlantic Explorer with expert guidance from @stannescollege.bsky.social + Earth Sciences alumna Eloise! Sampling and processing water from down to 3500 m depth in the subtropical Atlantic.
September 25, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Exciting Bermuda Day 3 for our @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social undergrads on board the RV Atlantic Explorer with expert guidance from @stannescollege.bsky.social + Earth Sciences alumna Eloise! Sampling and processing water from down to 3500 m depth in the subtropical Atlantic.
Another great day doing coastal oceanography in Harrington Sound, successfully sampling an anoxic layer at the bottom of Devil's Hole! Tomorrow we'll be on the RV Atlantic Explorer, heading to Hydrostation S...
September 23, 2025 at 11:24 PM
Another great day doing coastal oceanography in Harrington Sound, successfully sampling an anoxic layer at the bottom of Devil's Hole! Tomorrow we'll be on the RV Atlantic Explorer, heading to Hydrostation S...
Our @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social undergraduates on their Bermuda field class! Busy first day doing oceanographic data analysis, looking at fossil dunes from glacial periods, and a snorkel around a modern carbonate factory with some great diploria and gorgonia colonies.
September 23, 2025 at 2:24 AM
Our @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social undergraduates on their Bermuda field class! Busy first day doing oceanographic data analysis, looking at fossil dunes from glacial periods, and a snorkel around a modern carbonate factory with some great diploria and gorgonia colonies.
Also consider Session 98: eco-evolutionary responses of reef organisms to anthropogenic climate change with @ecolology.bsky.social and @liamlachs.bsky.social! Super important for future coral reef dynamics, so I'm really looking forward to this session.
September 18, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Also consider Session 98: eco-evolutionary responses of reef organisms to anthropogenic climate change with @ecolology.bsky.social and @liamlachs.bsky.social! Super important for future coral reef dynamics, so I'm really looking forward to this session.
#ICRS2026 is now open for abstract submissions! Coral modellers - consider submitting an abstract to our Session 19: modeling coral reef ecosystems across scales. We're hoping to get diverse abstracts spanning a broad range of spatial and temporal scales! 🪸🌊
September 18, 2025 at 4:34 PM
#ICRS2026 is now open for abstract submissions! Coral modellers - consider submitting an abstract to our Session 19: modeling coral reef ecosystems across scales. We're hoping to get diverse abstracts spanning a broad range of spatial and temporal scales! 🪸🌊
Interested in doing a PhD in environmental research at Oxford? We offer fully-funded positions through ILESLA, now open for applications at iles.web.ox.ac.uk!
Happy to discuss applications with students whose interests align with modelling marine dispersal or oceanic forcing of coral reefs.
Happy to discuss applications with students whose interests align with modelling marine dispersal or oceanic forcing of coral reefs.
September 17, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Interested in doing a PhD in environmental research at Oxford? We offer fully-funded positions through ILESLA, now open for applications at iles.web.ox.ac.uk!
Happy to discuss applications with students whose interests align with modelling marine dispersal or oceanic forcing of coral reefs.
Happy to discuss applications with students whose interests align with modelling marine dispersal or oceanic forcing of coral reefs.
Thank you also to my excellent co-authors, Lisa McManus, @chrisecornwall.bsky.social, and Jamie Pringle, and most of the reviewers for this paper! We're looking forward to expanding this study in future work. (16/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Thank you also to my excellent co-authors, Lisa McManus, @chrisecornwall.bsky.social, and Jamie Pringle, and most of the reviewers for this paper! We're looking forward to expanding this study in future work. (16/16)
This research was carried out at the Hawai’i Institute of Marine Biology, and was supported by the NOAA Climate & Global Change Program with @ucar-cpaess.bsky.social. This amazing postdoctoral program is currently under serious threat due to US federal funding cuts. (15/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
This research was carried out at the Hawai’i Institute of Marine Biology, and was supported by the NOAA Climate & Global Change Program with @ucar-cpaess.bsky.social. This amazing postdoctoral program is currently under serious threat due to US federal funding cuts. (15/16)
In summary, temperate seas will not act as effective refugia for most tropical coral species. Coral reefs will expand polewards, but not within our lifetimes. On the other hand, corals are not doomed, and limiting warming to 2C could give them a much brighter future than previously thought. (14/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
In summary, temperate seas will not act as effective refugia for most tropical coral species. Coral reefs will expand polewards, but not within our lifetimes. On the other hand, corals are not doomed, and limiting warming to 2C could give them a much brighter future than previously thought. (14/16)
We are currently seeing shifts in coral community composition towards more stress-tolerant corals. Our model also suggests that this will reverse later this century, favouring fast-growing branching corals in the long term. There is some potential evidence for this in the geological record. (13/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
We are currently seeing shifts in coral community composition towards more stress-tolerant corals. Our model also suggests that this will reverse later this century, favouring fast-growing branching corals in the long term. There is some potential evidence for this in the geological record. (13/16)
Interestingly, our model suggests the bottleneck is *not* dispersal, but the relatively slow population growth rate of tropical corals in marginal conditions. While mean SST is rising, higher latitude locations still have greater temperature variability and less light, limiting growth rate. (12/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Interestingly, our model suggests the bottleneck is *not* dispersal, but the relatively slow population growth rate of tropical corals in marginal conditions. While mean SST is rising, higher latitude locations still have greater temperature variability and less light, limiting growth rate. (12/16)
On the other hand, we predict that significant poleward range expansion takes centuries for most tropical coral species. Given that these corals are already experiencing a catastrophic decline, this is far too slow for the subtropics/temperate seas to act as coral 'refugia'. (11/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
On the other hand, we predict that significant poleward range expansion takes centuries for most tropical coral species. Given that these corals are already experiencing a catastrophic decline, this is far too slow for the subtropics/temperate seas to act as coral 'refugia'. (11/16)
Our model suggests that tropical coral cover will decline by a further 70% under future emissions in line with current policies, but this decline could be halved under SSP1-2.6 (broadly consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement). (9/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Our model suggests that tropical coral cover will decline by a further 70% under future emissions in line with current policies, but this decline could be halved under SSP1-2.6 (broadly consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement). (9/16)
This model was parameterised primarily using physiological measurements from lab experiments. It is not a statistical model – it was given no information about where corals are found. Despite this, it does a decent job of independently predicting where reefs are, and their recent decline. (8/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
This model was parameterised primarily using physiological measurements from lab experiments. It is not a statistical model – it was given no information about where corals are found. Despite this, it does a decent job of independently predicting where reefs are, and their recent decline. (8/16)
Many interacting processes – dispersal, population dynamics, and evolution– come together to set the true rate of range expansion in response to rapid environmental change. To test whether we can expect corals to keep up with rapid climate change, we constructed a global eco-evo model. (7/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Many interacting processes – dispersal, population dynamics, and evolution– come together to set the true rate of range expansion in response to rapid environmental change. To test whether we can expect corals to keep up with rapid climate change, we constructed a global eco-evo model. (7/16)
However, dispersal isn't the only requirement for range expansion. 'Habitability' is complex, and just because a coral is able to *survive* in a new location doesn't mean you are going to immediately form a large thriving coral reef capable of propagating larvae further poleward. (6/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
However, dispersal isn't the only requirement for range expansion. 'Habitability' is complex, and just because a coral is able to *survive* in a new location doesn't mean you are going to immediately form a large thriving coral reef capable of propagating larvae further poleward. (6/16)
As the ocean warms, conditions become less habitable for corals in the tropics, but some higher latitude seas might become more conducive to coral reef formation. Coral larvae can drift over large distances by ocean currents, so it is possible for coral reefs to shift polewards. (5/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
As the ocean warms, conditions become less habitable for corals in the tropics, but some higher latitude seas might become more conducive to coral reef formation. Coral larvae can drift over large distances by ocean currents, so it is possible for coral reefs to shift polewards. (5/16)
3. The rate of coral range expansion is probably limited by greater environmental stress (e.g. temperature variability) at higher latitudes, *not* by dispersal.
4. Ongoing shifts towards more stress-tolerant massive corals may strongly reverse and benefit branching corals later this century.
(3/16)
4. Ongoing shifts towards more stress-tolerant massive corals may strongly reverse and benefit branching corals later this century.
(3/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
3. The rate of coral range expansion is probably limited by greater environmental stress (e.g. temperature variability) at higher latitudes, *not* by dispersal.
4. Ongoing shifts towards more stress-tolerant massive corals may strongly reverse and benefit branching corals later this century.
(3/16)
4. Ongoing shifts towards more stress-tolerant massive corals may strongly reverse and benefit branching corals later this century.
(3/16)
Key points:
1. Apart from those that already do well in marginal reefs, it will take 100s years for most corals to expand polewards.
2. Limiting warming to 2C may give coral reefs a brighter future than previously suggested, with positive impacts lasting well beyond the current century.
(2/16)
1. Apart from those that already do well in marginal reefs, it will take 100s years for most corals to expand polewards.
2. Limiting warming to 2C may give coral reefs a brighter future than previously suggested, with positive impacts lasting well beyond the current century.
(2/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Key points:
1. Apart from those that already do well in marginal reefs, it will take 100s years for most corals to expand polewards.
2. Limiting warming to 2C may give coral reefs a brighter future than previously suggested, with positive impacts lasting well beyond the current century.
(2/16)
1. Apart from those that already do well in marginal reefs, it will take 100s years for most corals to expand polewards.
2. Limiting warming to 2C may give coral reefs a brighter future than previously suggested, with positive impacts lasting well beyond the current century.
(2/16)
Can tropical corals find refuge at higher latitudes under future warming? In our new paper in Science Advances, we argue that coral range expansion will be *far too slow* for most coral species to outpace climate change. 🪸🌊
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
A short 🧵 (1/16)
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
A short 🧵 (1/16)
June 7, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Can tropical corals find refuge at higher latitudes under future warming? In our new paper in Science Advances, we argue that coral range expansion will be *far too slow* for most coral species to outpace climate change. 🪸🌊
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
A short 🧵 (1/16)
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
A short 🧵 (1/16)