(Part 8) How governments help those affected will show a great deal about their priorities. Democracies should theoretically be maximising votes, but that may not happen. Capital can shift fast, votes can't. Which side do they help? That's going to determine our next century as a species.

(Part 7) Climate change is real, and large financial firms and Trump are telling us it's real, by their actions. Most of us don't have the resources to bet on the benefits of climate change. We are stuck with the negatives.

(Part 6) Exiting the market will probably happen in good order, but that won't be universal. The cost of insurance will push upwards, and there will be fewer firms willing to provide insurance. You don't want to bet on climate change not having a bad effect.

(Part 5) Insurers also have a massive part to play. Insurers essentially offer a bet that a bad thing doesn't happen. When you take out insurance you are betting it will. Climate change is terrible for insurers because it is an easy bet on something bad happening. So they start exiting that market.

(Part 4) Trump is looking northwards predominantly and exerting US influence to control future opportunities from climate change. He isn't looking south (other than the Panama canal) because those regions will be less valuable in the future.

(Part 3) Trumps big noises towards Greenland and Canada show an understanding that habitable zones and trade flows will shift with climate change. Canada will become more habitable, and more arable. Cross arctic trade corridors will open and Greenland is in excellent position to benefit.

(Part 2) It is easier to look at forward action amongst those most affected by climate change and who have the ability to influence and exploit the outcome. Current governments and insurers are critical here, alongside future markets.

(part 1) Climate change. There are big debates amongst political parties and policy makers about how much, and who to blame. This is naturally obfuscatory as those people have a range of priorities and agendas.

Trump has a rare gift. He is a president who gets to learn from the failures of his first time in office and come back for a second go. That makes his usual malevolence far scarier.

I have now won a Grand Admiral game in Stellaris. Rather proud of that.

Now for a nice relaxing game of Frostpunk 2.

Hello Bluesky, what's up?