Ultimately, I agree that PR removes the local representation while being fair, but think that greatly expanding the number of house seats and some sort of compact seat rule would solve a lot of these trade offs (never all). There’s only so many ways to split a state with a handful of seats

So while the first map split slc, this one splits some of the reddish (and shifting blue) neighboring counties. I think that lots of maps have plausible arguments for them, but the judges one is very defensible

As for Utah demo: it’s a bit more nunanced, with slc and park city being quite blue, but the other suburban counties that make up most of the state population along the wasatch front being quite red, but not the +30 of any of the new 3R seats. Then rural and south are very red (+50 or more)

Eh answering several questions here: my hypothetical was if Utah as whole shifted with the national environment. In that case, the current map could end up with a 3-1 split even if dems got more than 50% in the state

3rd party maps in case any partisan data was used, turns out the expert they brought in to make that map had partisan data displayed in his program. So seems like the strike down was logical

Ultimately I agree this is a judicious outcome; the judge first tried to avoid this but was overruled by the UT Supreme Court in saying Prop 4 was the law, and joe she’s tried to follow it. The house’s map could have been fine, except that after all their shenanigans and insisting they couldn’t use

Which funnily enough, the new map is also sort of a gerrymander seen in other states, with a pack and crack. But it really gets to a problem, while egregious gerrymanders can be obvious, there’s a lot of places you can end up when balancing compactness, fairness, responsiveness, etc

But the cost of a map that quite explicitly bakes in a partisan breakup like this is that it’s no longer responsive to voters. Anywhere from a national R+15 to D+20 or more (30?, not sure I’m doing the math right) gives essentially the same result, while other maps might swing from 4-0 to 2-2

Yeah; as I said elsewhere, some Rs are being dramatic and saying they’ll impeach judge Gibson, but I’m wondering if they’re secretly celebrating a switch from a map that had a very decent chance of 2 Ds next year to one that will likely be 3R-1D. But they’re appealing anywhere for the base

And so you get a map that went from being a crack the D vote to one that packs it…which has also been considered a type of gerrymander, and plausibly maintains 3-1 split over a huge range of shifts in Utah vote. I feel sympathetic to PR, but would also like just way more reps and compact districts

Yeah; some Rs are being histrionic and saying they’ll impeach judge Gibson, but I’m wondering if quietly they’re celebrating a switch from a map that had a very decent chance of 2 Ds next year to one that will likely be 3R-1D

Haha the dangers of becoming famous for anything, toddlers, zombies, etc

But more seriously, while that sure popped to mind, I’ve always enjoyed your work ever since I stumbled on Spoiler Alerts while reading the post as a grad student in the DC area

Tbh, I really don’t think that will happen, but I don’t even pretend to know what Johnson is thinking

Or the house! Johnson still has to call them back cause this is not the cr (or even non passed approps bills) from the house.

Saw this and thought of you, but was sure you get tagged in replies to such posts all the time

Yes…but my kids school schedules don’t 🙁

The US has a massive advantage at non-yield producing testing methods in technology and expertise, so of course this would be another unforced giveaway to Moscow and Beijing.

Did this last time, but it made for sort of an unreadable poster. But my neighbor liked how my kids were carrying it around so much that she hung it up on her garage after

Neither Trump nor Kennedy seem like true believers in pronatalism to me… seems more like that’s other hangers on in the admin