Noah Kaufman
@noahqkaufman.bsky.social
Climate economist. Opinions are my own.
Combined, cap-and-trade emissions permits and the RPS credits cost a typical household about $10-$15 per month. The price signal from the emissions permits is effectively doing nothing to reduce emissions due to context in which the program operates.
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Combined, cap-and-trade emissions permits and the RPS credits cost a typical household about $10-$15 per month. The price signal from the emissions permits is effectively doing nothing to reduce emissions due to context in which the program operates.
In contrast, rooftop solar is expensive. Per kilowatt hour of electricity, rooftop solar in CT is compensated at rates around three times higher than grid-scale solar.
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
In contrast, rooftop solar is expensive. Per kilowatt hour of electricity, rooftop solar in CT is compensated at rates around three times higher than grid-scale solar.
Trends on load growth mirror other parts of the country, mainly due to expectations about electrification (not data centers here). Demand actually fell ~13% over the past decade and is expected to grow by about the same amount in the next decade (tho highly uncertain)
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Trends on load growth mirror other parts of the country, mainly due to expectations about electrification (not data centers here). Demand actually fell ~13% over the past decade and is expected to grow by about the same amount in the next decade (tho highly uncertain)
You might think more population dense places should have lower electricity prices because they can spread the fixed charges of the grid across more customers. But there’s a pretty clear correlation between population density and higher prices among US states.
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
You might think more population dense places should have lower electricity prices because they can spread the fixed charges of the grid across more customers. But there’s a pretty clear correlation between population density and higher prices among US states.
The lack of local fuel sources is huge. Prices (and emissions) spike each winter due to infrastructure constraints. Natural gas prices at CT power plants averaged $2.50 per thousand cubic feet last November, and over $14 in January
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
The lack of local fuel sources is huge. Prices (and emissions) spike each winter due to infrastructure constraints. Natural gas prices at CT power plants averaged $2.50 per thousand cubic feet last November, and over $14 in January
Retail electricity prices in CT are ~2x those in PA, and not for any single reason. Generation, transmission, distribution, ratepayer-funded policies -- they all contribute to high prices in CT
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Retail electricity prices in CT are ~2x those in PA, and not for any single reason. Generation, transmission, distribution, ratepayer-funded policies -- they all contribute to high prices in CT
Here's a few things I learned digging into electricity affordability and decarbonization in Connecticut 🧵
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Here's a few things I learned digging into electricity affordability and decarbonization in Connecticut 🧵
I was lucky to part of this amazing group exploring Oklahoma's plans for future economic resilience given its heavy reliance on the oil and gas industry.
Here's our summary report (1/3)
cdn.prod.website-files.com/65f9f863036e...
Here's our summary report (1/3)
cdn.prod.website-files.com/65f9f863036e...
May 14, 2025 at 3:03 PM
I was lucky to part of this amazing group exploring Oklahoma's plans for future economic resilience given its heavy reliance on the oil and gas industry.
Here's our summary report (1/3)
cdn.prod.website-files.com/65f9f863036e...
Here's our summary report (1/3)
cdn.prod.website-files.com/65f9f863036e...
Seems like energycommunities.gov, which provided resources to help enable economic revitalization in fossil fuel dependent communities, has been taken down by DOE
May 12, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Seems like energycommunities.gov, which provided resources to help enable economic revitalization in fossil fuel dependent communities, has been taken down by DOE
OIRA is justifying its unreasonable guidance to (effectively) ignore climate damages in regulatory decisions using this fairly reasonable critique of social cost of carbon estimates
May 8, 2025 at 11:12 PM
OIRA is justifying its unreasonable guidance to (effectively) ignore climate damages in regulatory decisions using this fairly reasonable critique of social cost of carbon estimates
For lawyers: is "nonaquiescence" just a fancy way to say ignore court rulings?
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
May 8, 2025 at 11:12 PM
For lawyers: is "nonaquiescence" just a fancy way to say ignore court rulings?
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Nailed it. And we've created the Resilient Energy Economies initiative to help avoid repeating the mistakes of the China Shock with the inevitable shocks caused by an energy transition.
April 11, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Nailed it. And we've created the Resilient Energy Economies initiative to help avoid repeating the mistakes of the China Shock with the inevitable shocks caused by an energy transition.
This terrific new book explains in painstaking detail why EPA's social cost of carbon estimate is not a policy relevant metric
April 8, 2025 at 1:33 PM
This terrific new book explains in painstaking detail why EPA's social cost of carbon estimate is not a policy relevant metric
I spoke with @jtemple.bsky.social before the tariff announcement so I probably wasn't pessimistic enough here
www.technologyreview.com/2025/04/03/1...
www.technologyreview.com/2025/04/03/1...
April 4, 2025 at 2:10 PM
I spoke with @jtemple.bsky.social before the tariff announcement so I probably wasn't pessimistic enough here
www.technologyreview.com/2025/04/03/1...
www.technologyreview.com/2025/04/03/1...
Today I'll be more provocative. If we put meaningless modeling results into reports like IPCCs and position them as scientific findings, how can we expect people to trust the other findings, that are based on very good science, in these same reports?
rdcu.be/ecSMX
rdcu.be/ecSMX
March 12, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Today I'll be more provocative. If we put meaningless modeling results into reports like IPCCs and position them as scientific findings, how can we expect people to trust the other findings, that are based on very good science, in these same reports?
rdcu.be/ecSMX
rdcu.be/ecSMX
Terrific working paper on place-based policies. I can't remember the last time I learned so much from a single paper.
And a great point here:
www.nber.org/system/files...
And a great point here:
www.nber.org/system/files...
March 12, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Terrific working paper on place-based policies. I can't remember the last time I learned so much from a single paper.
And a great point here:
www.nber.org/system/files...
And a great point here:
www.nber.org/system/files...
Less ambitious modelling exercises may better support climate policymaking via ‘adaptive management’, which emphasizes learning through iterative processes involving policymakers, modelers and other key stakeholders. We provide a few real world examples.
March 11, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Less ambitious modelling exercises may better support climate policymaking via ‘adaptive management’, which emphasizes learning through iterative processes involving policymakers, modelers and other key stakeholders. We provide a few real world examples.
The 3rd example is the flipside of the 2nd. When models are broad in scope, they often lack sufficient detail in individual sectors, and these omissions can lead to misleading policy guidance.
We point to models showing carbon capture as THE solution for decarbonizing steel.
We point to models showing carbon capture as THE solution for decarbonizing steel.
March 11, 2025 at 3:00 PM
The 3rd example is the flipside of the 2nd. When models are broad in scope, they often lack sufficient detail in individual sectors, and these omissions can lead to misleading policy guidance.
We point to models showing carbon capture as THE solution for decarbonizing steel.
We point to models showing carbon capture as THE solution for decarbonizing steel.
Second, models are often limited in scope and omit important factors that may be decisive for policymakers, and yet they are relied upon to draw overly broad policy conclusions. We highlight a recent IMF exercise of green industrial policies.
March 11, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Second, models are often limited in scope and omit important factors that may be decisive for policymakers, and yet they are relied upon to draw overly broad policy conclusions. We highlight a recent IMF exercise of green industrial policies.
First, energy/econ models become less useful over longer time horizons. We point to a prominent GDP projection in the latest IPCC report. We cannot usefully project prices/technologies/GDP effects decades in advance, and policymakers are misled by exercises that do this.
March 11, 2025 at 3:00 PM
First, energy/econ models become less useful over longer time horizons. We point to a prominent GDP projection in the latest IPCC report. We cannot usefully project prices/technologies/GDP effects decades in advance, and policymakers are misled by exercises that do this.
You probably know US oil and gas production are at all time highs.
But production in most oil and gas regions is declining, and these local economies are struggling.
Read about it in our new issue brief:
media.rff.org/documents/IB...
But production in most oil and gas regions is declining, and these local economies are struggling.
Read about it in our new issue brief:
media.rff.org/documents/IB...
February 27, 2025 at 2:13 PM
You probably know US oil and gas production are at all time highs.
But production in most oil and gas regions is declining, and these local economies are struggling.
Read about it in our new issue brief:
media.rff.org/documents/IB...
But production in most oil and gas regions is declining, and these local economies are struggling.
Read about it in our new issue brief:
media.rff.org/documents/IB...
Today we announced the initial research portfolio for Resilient Energy Economies, 22 policy-focused projects that will contribute to the economic strategies of fossil fuel-reliant communities across the USA.
Please check them out!
www.resilientenergyeconomies.org/grants
Please check them out!
www.resilientenergyeconomies.org/grants
February 13, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Today we announced the initial research portfolio for Resilient Energy Economies, 22 policy-focused projects that will contribute to the economic strategies of fossil fuel-reliant communities across the USA.
Please check them out!
www.resilientenergyeconomies.org/grants
Please check them out!
www.resilientenergyeconomies.org/grants
On climate, I guess I'll die on this hill, but Jared is right to say that most economists in Biden's orbit believed this. And that's a big part of why Biden's climate people often ignored us. A carbon price is only one part of an efficient way to address climate.
February 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
On climate, I guess I'll die on this hill, but Jared is right to say that most economists in Biden's orbit believed this. And that's a big part of why Biden's climate people often ignored us. A carbon price is only one part of an efficient way to address climate.
Jared Bernstein responds to @jasonfurman.bsky.social . I find Jared's arguments persuasive, although I still like Jason's conclusion here.
(1/2)
econjared.substack.com/p/no-delusio...
(1/2)
econjared.substack.com/p/no-delusio...
February 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Jared Bernstein responds to @jasonfurman.bsky.social . I find Jared's arguments persuasive, although I still like Jason's conclusion here.
(1/2)
econjared.substack.com/p/no-delusio...
(1/2)
econjared.substack.com/p/no-delusio...
This is a useful example of how economists’ mental model of climate change leads us astray.
The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.
That's wrong 🧵
The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.
That's wrong 🧵
February 11, 2025 at 4:02 PM
This is a useful example of how economists’ mental model of climate change leads us astray.
The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.
That's wrong 🧵
The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.
That's wrong 🧵