New CBO data says GOP’s Big Bill cuts ~$500bn from IRA clean energy tax credits. That's a ~60% reduction in comparison to the CBO’s last projection of IRA clean energy spending.

Importantly, 70% of these savings occur post-2030, so depend on the next Congress and President.

Thanks @greenprofgreen.bsky.social ! One of our more interesting findings is that the size of these decarbonizable industries is highly uneven across the rich OECD + often much larger than the fossil fuel industries that remain terminally threatened.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

We then traced the politics behind these different policy stories. In every case, climate policy succeeded when aligned with longer term economic trajectories:

UK neoliberalization -> cap-and-trade leadership
South Korea developmental state -> green industrial leadership
EU -> ...

To make this argument, we identified climate policy leaders using original data on green spending during their COVID responses and carbon pricing levels:

-> The UK prices but doesn’t spend.
-> South Korea spends but doesn’t price.
-> The EU stands alone in doing both!

New paper out with @jonasnahm.com!

We argue that the recent rise—and limits—of green industrial policies and higher carbon prices reflect a powerful political strategy: Making countries' dominant economic interests and growth models central to climate policy.

www.tandfonline.com/eprint/3QN3F...