Nils Gubela
@nillegu.bsky.social
This approach enabled us to infer a mechanistic model of behaviour change for the 2022 Mpox outbreak in Berlin. You can preprint here: www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-6... 5/5
Transient behavior changes and depletion of susceptibles in high contact groups led to case decline during 2022 mpox outbreak in MSM in Berlin
Mpox denotes a viral zoonosis caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV), which is endemic in West and Central Africa. In spring 2022, notable outbreaks of mpox clade IIb were recorded in several high-income co...
www.researchsquare.com
June 2, 2025 at 7:25 PM
This approach enabled us to infer a mechanistic model of behaviour change for the 2022 Mpox outbreak in Berlin. You can preprint here: www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-6... 5/5
The trick: By deriving a formula for the edge existence probability, we can employ acceptance-rejection sampling to sample infection events without constructing the whole network each time. This approach allows to sample the infection tree exactly, with significantly less computational effort! 4/5
June 2, 2025 at 7:25 PM
The trick: By deriving a formula for the edge existence probability, we can employ acceptance-rejection sampling to sample infection events without constructing the whole network each time. This approach allows to sample the infection tree exactly, with significantly less computational effort! 4/5
The problem: Contact updates and the spreading process occur on similar time scales. The effort of updating the network is dominating the effort of any exact sampling algo. So, the model is nice, but it's not practically feasible for examining dynamics or performing inference. 3/5
June 2, 2025 at 7:24 PM
The problem: Contact updates and the spreading process occur on similar time scales. The effort of updating the network is dominating the effort of any exact sampling algo. So, the model is nice, but it's not practically feasible for examining dynamics or performing inference. 3/5
We were interested in a model for contact networks that naturally change over time and adapt according to the state of the spreading process. When there are many (diagnosed) cases, people may reduce their interactions in anticipation of infection. 2/5
June 2, 2025 at 7:22 PM
We were interested in a model for contact networks that naturally change over time and adapt according to the state of the spreading process. When there are many (diagnosed) cases, people may reduce their interactions in anticipation of infection. 2/5