Nicolò Gnocato 🇺🇦🇪🇺
@nicognocato.bsky.social
Economist @ecb.europa.eu | PhD @unibocconi & MSc @lseecon | Interested in Macro-Labor-Monetary Economics
*views/opinions are my own, not those of the @ecb.europa.eu*
http://sites.google.com/view/nicolo-gnocato/
*views/opinions are my own, not those of the @ecb.europa.eu*
http://sites.google.com/view/nicolo-gnocato/
Also check out our recent column on @voxeu.org for a more policy-oriented take on the results 6/6
Tariffs across the supply chain
Tariffs disrupt trade flows and influence prices, but their broader impact depends on how they are structured and the type of goods targeted. This column examines the economic implications of tariffs across the supply chain, with a particular focus on how different modes of retaliation to US tariffs impact economic activity, inflation, and trade. The authors find that the effects vary significantly. A broad retaliation strategy targeting both final and intermediate goods would result in a more pronounced contraction in GDP and more persistent inflation than retaliation that targets only final goods.
cepr.org
July 30, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Also check out our recent column on @voxeu.org for a more policy-oriented take on the results 6/6
The results imply that a revenue-equivalent approach to import tariffs, targeting only final goods, can cushion the adverse effects of trade wars. 5/6
July 30, 2025 at 5:42 AM
The results imply that a revenue-equivalent approach to import tariffs, targeting only final goods, can cushion the adverse effects of trade wars. 5/6
Tariffs on final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP, as final goods can be more readily substituted with domestic alternatives. Persistent cost and inflation pressures are avoided, only at the cost of somewhat higher inflation on impact. 4/5
July 30, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Tariffs on final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP, as final goods can be more readily substituted with domestic alternatives. Persistent cost and inflation pressures are avoided, only at the cost of somewhat higher inflation on impact. 4/5
Tariffs on intermediate goods lead to larger GDP losses, given the limited substitutability of foreign inputs and their role in global supply chains. Cost pressures through production linkages give rise to persistent inflation. 3/5
July 30, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Tariffs on intermediate goods lead to larger GDP losses, given the limited substitutability of foreign inputs and their role in global supply chains. Cost pressures through production linkages give rise to persistent inflation. 3/5
What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? The paper investigates this question in a 2-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. 2/5
July 30, 2025 at 5:42 AM
What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? The paper investigates this question in a 2-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. 2/5
Say we tax streaming services, then consumers can watch less of those and more tv. Say we tax digital marketplace services, then firms might need to pay that higher cost, and ultimately pass it on to consumers. That’s the main point of our analysis. We talk about goods but it can extend to services
June 12, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Say we tax streaming services, then consumers can watch less of those and more tv. Say we tax digital marketplace services, then firms might need to pay that higher cost, and ultimately pass it on to consumers. That’s the main point of our analysis. We talk about goods but it can extend to services
The mechanism we elicit can apply as well to services, not only goods. Typically, consumers can more easily adjust their consumption in response to trade barriers, compared to what firms can do with inputs. An example 👇
June 12, 2025 at 8:01 PM
The mechanism we elicit can apply as well to services, not only goods. Typically, consumers can more easily adjust their consumption in response to trade barriers, compared to what firms can do with inputs. An example 👇
One of the authors here.
With all due respect, what do you exactly mean with “services”? Many of those for which the EU relies on the US (e.g. IT-related) actually serve themselves as a production input and have very few substitutes (if any)
With all due respect, what do you exactly mean with “services”? Many of those for which the EU relies on the US (e.g. IT-related) actually serve themselves as a production input and have very few substitutes (if any)
June 11, 2025 at 2:30 PM
One of the authors here.
With all due respect, what do you exactly mean with “services”? Many of those for which the EU relies on the US (e.g. IT-related) actually serve themselves as a production input and have very few substitutes (if any)
With all due respect, what do you exactly mean with “services”? Many of those for which the EU relies on the US (e.g. IT-related) actually serve themselves as a production input and have very few substitutes (if any)
We show how this approach limits the adverse effects on GDP and avoids persistent inflationary pressure, only at the cost of somewhat higher inflation on impact.
Stay tuned for the full paper! ⏱️ 2/2
Stay tuned for the full paper! ⏱️ 2/2
May 30, 2025 at 2:52 PM
We show how this approach limits the adverse effects on GDP and avoids persistent inflationary pressure, only at the cost of somewhat higher inflation on impact.
Stay tuned for the full paper! ⏱️ 2/2
Stay tuned for the full paper! ⏱️ 2/2
Last but not least, my gratitude goes to Stefano Neri and Basile Grassi, who — though from very different roles — supported this project even before I fully realized its potential. 5/5
January 13, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Last but not least, my gratitude goes to Stefano Neri and Basile Grassi, who — though from very different roles — supported this project even before I fully realized its potential. 5/5
Second, heartfelt thanks to Tommaso Monacelli and Antonella Trigari. Their guidance was invaluable in steering this paper in the right direction during its early stages as part of my PhD thesis. 4/5
January 13, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Second, heartfelt thanks to Tommaso Monacelli and Antonella Trigari. Their guidance was invaluable in steering this paper in the right direction during its early stages as part of my PhD thesis. 4/5
First, shoutout to the editorial process at the JME. When they say it’s fast, fair, and constructive, I can confirm they mean it — based on my little experience. I believe the paper has improved significantly through the process. 3/5
www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...
www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...
Editors' interview - Journal of Monetary Economics | ScienceDirect.com by ElsevierScienceDirect
Read the latest articles of Journal of Monetary Economics at ScienceDirect.com, Elsevier’s leading platform of peer-reviewed scholarly literature
www.sciencedirect.com
January 13, 2025 at 5:13 PM
First, shoutout to the editorial process at the JME. When they say it’s fast, fair, and constructive, I can confirm they mean it — based on my little experience. I believe the paper has improved significantly through the process. 3/5
www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...
www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...
So, do central banks react optimally to energy price surges?
My model's prescriptions — a mild reaction to core inflation & full look-through of energy — do seem to align with empirical estimates by BIS researchers: bsky.app/profile/intm...
Now, time for some thanks ... 2/5
My model's prescriptions — a mild reaction to core inflation & full look-through of energy — do seem to align with empirical estimates by BIS researchers: bsky.app/profile/intm...
Now, time for some thanks ... 2/5
Highly relevant! Implications of larger commodity price changes for monetary policy.
"Commodity prices and monetary policy: old and new challenges" by Avalos, Banerjee, Burgert, Hofmann, Manea, and Rottner.
www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
"Commodity prices and monetary policy: old and new challenges" by Avalos, Banerjee, Burgert, Hofmann, Manea, and Rottner.
www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
January 13, 2025 at 5:13 PM
So, do central banks react optimally to energy price surges?
My model's prescriptions — a mild reaction to core inflation & full look-through of energy — do seem to align with empirical estimates by BIS researchers: bsky.app/profile/intm...
Now, time for some thanks ... 2/5
My model's prescriptions — a mild reaction to core inflation & full look-through of energy — do seem to align with empirical estimates by BIS researchers: bsky.app/profile/intm...
Now, time for some thanks ... 2/5
They’ll flock to truth social (hopefully)
December 28, 2024 at 5:20 PM
They’ll flock to truth social (hopefully)