PML
@mortimerleepaul.bsky.social
Economist, Ex BoE, IMF, BNPP, NIESR. Runs a specialist school. Brit, living in NY. 2 kids, 2 cats, 1 snake, 4 dogs, 1 wife. Opinions my own, even the wrong ones
Britain’ Budgetary Choices
November 23, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Britain’ Budgetary Choices
Amid talk of an IMF program for the UK, what advice would Chancellor Denis Healey give? He was at HMT for the 1976 IMF program and raised the top marginal rate to 83% in 1974 and added a 15% surcharge on unearned investment income, ie a 98% top rate, in 1975.
In the style of James Gilray
In the style of James Gilray
September 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Amid talk of an IMF program for the UK, what advice would Chancellor Denis Healey give? He was at HMT for the 1976 IMF program and raised the top marginal rate to 83% in 1974 and added a 15% surcharge on unearned investment income, ie a 98% top rate, in 1975.
In the style of James Gilray
In the style of James Gilray
Look who dropped in for dinner.
Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.
Fortunately the dogs were in...
Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.
Fortunately the dogs were in...
August 14, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Look who dropped in for dinner.
Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.
Fortunately the dogs were in...
Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.
Fortunately the dogs were in...
Today's UK GDP numbers, another m/m fall, show that the double act of Reeves and Starmer not only don't understand economics, but also fail to grasp basic English.
They aim to "kick-start" the economy, whereas their policies are giving it a good kicking. Here's a graphic to help them understand.
They aim to "kick-start" the economy, whereas their policies are giving it a good kicking. Here's a graphic to help them understand.
July 11, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Today's UK GDP numbers, another m/m fall, show that the double act of Reeves and Starmer not only don't understand economics, but also fail to grasp basic English.
They aim to "kick-start" the economy, whereas their policies are giving it a good kicking. Here's a graphic to help them understand.
They aim to "kick-start" the economy, whereas their policies are giving it a good kicking. Here's a graphic to help them understand.
When the UK Chancellor says he economy is turning a corner, this is what comes to mind.
(NB all 571 passengers on the Oceanos were rescued)
(NB all 571 passengers on the Oceanos were rescued)
June 12, 2025 at 6:26 PM
When the UK Chancellor says he economy is turning a corner, this is what comes to mind.
(NB all 571 passengers on the Oceanos were rescued)
(NB all 571 passengers on the Oceanos were rescued)
It’s a bit disturbing when the pensions minister has little idea how much pensions costs are rising each year….
..but totally consistent with the maths-challenged Chancellor
@torstenbell.bsky.social
..but totally consistent with the maths-challenged Chancellor
@torstenbell.bsky.social
June 10, 2025 at 12:11 PM
It’s a bit disturbing when the pensions minister has little idea how much pensions costs are rising each year….
..but totally consistent with the maths-challenged Chancellor
@torstenbell.bsky.social
..but totally consistent with the maths-challenged Chancellor
@torstenbell.bsky.social
Ahead of Wednesday’s spending review, Rachel Reeves should offer a prayer to Saint Jude Thaddeus, patron saint of lost causes.
There should be a special mention of her fiscal rules, because it will take a miracle to stick to them.
There should be a special mention of her fiscal rules, because it will take a miracle to stick to them.
June 6, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Ahead of Wednesday’s spending review, Rachel Reeves should offer a prayer to Saint Jude Thaddeus, patron saint of lost causes.
There should be a special mention of her fiscal rules, because it will take a miracle to stick to them.
There should be a special mention of her fiscal rules, because it will take a miracle to stick to them.
Given his views on the sustainability of US deficits and debt, the administration must rejoice that Musk doesn’t own a rating agency.,.
May 19, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Given his views on the sustainability of US deficits and debt, the administration must rejoice that Musk doesn’t own a rating agency.,.
What’s bad news for the economy is great news for the banks.
They must be thinking about supporting Trump 2028 to keep the volatility high
They must be thinking about supporting Trump 2028 to keep the volatility high
May 5, 2025 at 11:21 AM
What’s bad news for the economy is great news for the banks.
They must be thinking about supporting Trump 2028 to keep the volatility high
They must be thinking about supporting Trump 2028 to keep the volatility high
There's no doubt about it: @ofgem.bsky.social need to get back in their lane. Where in their mandate is the power to reallocate income?
It's the state's job to reallocate income, and individuals' right to allocate their income as best suits them.
It's the state's job to reallocate income, and individuals' right to allocate their income as best suits them.
April 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
There's no doubt about it: @ofgem.bsky.social need to get back in their lane. Where in their mandate is the power to reallocate income?
It's the state's job to reallocate income, and individuals' right to allocate their income as best suits them.
It's the state's job to reallocate income, and individuals' right to allocate their income as best suits them.
Revealed! President’s top tariff advisor
April 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Revealed! President’s top tariff advisor
Now, what tariffs shall we apply this time next week?
April 13, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Now, what tariffs shall we apply this time next week?
Nice analysis
Regarding the main goals of policy, the Spring Statement was a huge nothingburger
The appalling lack of credibility of the government’s fiscal and growth plans means there is constant fear of market meltdown and hence @hmtreasury.bsky.social must react to every minor shock.
Regarding the main goals of policy, the Spring Statement was a huge nothingburger
The appalling lack of credibility of the government’s fiscal and growth plans means there is constant fear of market meltdown and hence @hmtreasury.bsky.social must react to every minor shock.
March 31, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Nice analysis
Regarding the main goals of policy, the Spring Statement was a huge nothingburger
The appalling lack of credibility of the government’s fiscal and growth plans means there is constant fear of market meltdown and hence @hmtreasury.bsky.social must react to every minor shock.
Regarding the main goals of policy, the Spring Statement was a huge nothingburger
The appalling lack of credibility of the government’s fiscal and growth plans means there is constant fear of market meltdown and hence @hmtreasury.bsky.social must react to every minor shock.
Depends on WHY 10 year yields fall. If it’s because they put the economy into a recessionary tailspin, we might come to a different conclusion than if it’s due to price-zapping technological progress and eye-watering deregulation.
Real yields down near enough half a point says it’s not great news
Real yields down near enough half a point says it’s not great news
March 28, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Depends on WHY 10 year yields fall. If it’s because they put the economy into a recessionary tailspin, we might come to a different conclusion than if it’s due to price-zapping technological progress and eye-watering deregulation.
Real yields down near enough half a point says it’s not great news
Real yields down near enough half a point says it’s not great news
Without wishing to be unkind (ok. not completely true), the Chancellor looks totally out of touch.
Doesn’t she and her team know Elizabeth II is no longer on the throne?
Please @bruceandy.bsky.social tell me this is Reuters’ mistake
And if it’s not, please have a word with her
Doesn’t she and her team know Elizabeth II is no longer on the throne?
Please @bruceandy.bsky.social tell me this is Reuters’ mistake
And if it’s not, please have a word with her
March 26, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Without wishing to be unkind (ok. not completely true), the Chancellor looks totally out of touch.
Doesn’t she and her team know Elizabeth II is no longer on the throne?
Please @bruceandy.bsky.social tell me this is Reuters’ mistake
And if it’s not, please have a word with her
Doesn’t she and her team know Elizabeth II is no longer on the throne?
Please @bruceandy.bsky.social tell me this is Reuters’ mistake
And if it’s not, please have a word with her
This chart shows the fantasy of “foreign exporters pay for the tariffs.”
In fact, US users pay MORE than the amount of the tariff because US producers behind the tariff wall raise their prices too.
In fact, US users pay MORE than the amount of the tariff because US producers behind the tariff wall raise their prices too.
March 12, 2025 at 10:32 AM
This chart shows the fantasy of “foreign exporters pay for the tariffs.”
In fact, US users pay MORE than the amount of the tariff because US producers behind the tariff wall raise their prices too.
In fact, US users pay MORE than the amount of the tariff because US producers behind the tariff wall raise their prices too.
So difficult to choose what to respond to:
#Trumpslump? Or
#Trumpflation?
Solution - see which one looks to be lasting longer and respond to that
#Trumpslump? Or
#Trumpflation?
Solution - see which one looks to be lasting longer and respond to that
March 8, 2025 at 3:47 PM
So difficult to choose what to respond to:
#Trumpslump? Or
#Trumpflation?
Solution - see which one looks to be lasting longer and respond to that
#Trumpslump? Or
#Trumpflation?
Solution - see which one looks to be lasting longer and respond to that
Next for “unscheduled disassembly?”
March 7, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Next for “unscheduled disassembly?”
And a big press on this investment button
March 6, 2025 at 5:59 PM
And a big press on this investment button
The British constantly view the solution to the problem of scarce public resources as more tax. Which is why the burden is constantly ratcheting up.
Productivity in the NHS is down almost 20% since 2019. Obvious British solution? More NHS resources and more tax. Won’t work
Productivity in the NHS is down almost 20% since 2019. Obvious British solution? More NHS resources and more tax. Won’t work
February 18, 2025 at 11:56 AM
The British constantly view the solution to the problem of scarce public resources as more tax. Which is why the burden is constantly ratcheting up.
Productivity in the NHS is down almost 20% since 2019. Obvious British solution? More NHS resources and more tax. Won’t work
Productivity in the NHS is down almost 20% since 2019. Obvious British solution? More NHS resources and more tax. Won’t work
Since the EU thinks trade barriers, including tariffs, are terrible for the citizens of the country imposing them, it needs to explain why internal EU trade barriers are equivalent to a tariff of 44% according to the opinion IMF
February 15, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Since the EU thinks trade barriers, including tariffs, are terrible for the citizens of the country imposing them, it needs to explain why internal EU trade barriers are equivalent to a tariff of 44% according to the opinion IMF
If you were looking for BIG government headcount reductions, the Department of Education - with a whole 4000 employees - is not where you’d start.
Three quarters of the total is related to national security, with Veterans Affairs the biggest employer
Three quarters of the total is related to national security, with Veterans Affairs the biggest employer
February 11, 2025 at 4:05 AM
If you were looking for BIG government headcount reductions, the Department of Education - with a whole 4000 employees - is not where you’d start.
Three quarters of the total is related to national security, with Veterans Affairs the biggest employer
Three quarters of the total is related to national security, with Veterans Affairs the biggest employer