Mo Hossain
mohossain.bsky.social
Mo Hossain
@mohossain.bsky.social
Investor. I take advice. Sharing things I'm learning. re(Post) ≠ E
𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞: 𝟏𝟖𝟎 𝐘𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐨𝐩.

🚂📞🛢️🤖 … 𝑀𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑎 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑓𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒, 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑎 𝑏𝑢𝑔.

Every tech boom rides in with productivity gains and capital euphoria—then leaves investors holding the bubble bag.
From railways to AI: +600% up, then reality.

So what’s your edge ..?

x.com/mohossain/st...
November 12, 2025 at 7:06 PM
𝐀𝐈 𝐝𝐞𝐛𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞 = 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐥𝐢𝐩.

90‑day correlation between US IG spreads & S&P is rising — rare territory.

Only 5 times in the past decade we’ve seen less‑negative readings
Now? Mini‑decoupling driven by:

• AI issuance wave
• Hidden risk jitters

Credit isn’t just following equities anymore…
November 12, 2025 at 3:02 PM
𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭: 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 $𝟑𝐓 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐰 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤 𝐛𝐲 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟖 — 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐬 & 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐫.

🐸 Renovo’s 💯‑to‑zero overnight
From Zips Car Wash to Tricolor Auto, everyone fears the boiling frog — but in this market, you don’t simmer. You splat.
x.com/mohossain/st...
November 12, 2025 at 5:12 AM
𝐀𝐈: 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐆𝐏𝐔𝐬, 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐘𝐎𝐋𝐎 𝐝𝐞𝐛𝐭. AI debt structures with equity‑like returns

Deals: $30B @ 6.58% | $38B @ 6.40% | $12–20B @ 10.50%
Capital costs rise, structures get complex. Yield for credit investors, risk for equity holders?

x.com/mohossain/st... #privatedebt

x.com/mohossain/st...
November 12, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Labour policy risk = investment signal. Persistent H‑1B caps + lottery bottlenecks = structural drag on talent-heavy incumbents. Secular tailwinds for automation, RPA, LMS, and HR SaaS

Will AI shrink HR?
x.com/mohossain/st...

x.com/mohossain/st...
November 12, 2025 at 1:15 AM
💥 𝐋𝐏 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐦𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭.

🔹 $56B in H1 2025 — up 40% YoY
🔹 54% of total secondaries volume
🔹 40% of LP sellers = first-timers

Exit drought + aging PE portfolios = liquidity hunt.

The seller universe isn’t just bigger — it’s bolder.
#PrivateEquity #Secondaries #Liquidity #@PitchBook
November 11, 2025 at 2:49 PM
VC distributions remain at crisis-era lows—LPs retreat as capital returned fails to materialize, and PE faces a growing backlog of aging assets.

Real assets, with tangible income and “political sizzle,” are the only strategy outperforming their long-term IRRs?

#news @PitchBook #realtor #Rent #mbs
November 9, 2025 at 2:41 PM
𝐈𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒&𝐏 𝟓𝟎𝟎?

Q2 2025 data says yes—with correlations dropping as pandemic-era volatility fades and public markets spiral over trade drama. Independence looks good on alternatives.

ht @PitchBook @ennovance
November 9, 2025 at 2:25 PM
US companies announced 153,074 job cuts in October, nearly triple last year’s figure.

Tech and warehousing led the reductions, driven by AI adoption, rising costs, and weaker consumer spending. It’s the highest October layoff total since 2003.

via BBG

#Jobs #Layoffs
x.com/mohossain/st...
November 6, 2025 at 4:37 PM
𝐀𝐈 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐌&𝐀 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐭-𝐜𝐨𝐦 𝟏𝟗𝟗𝟗. 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲’𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟖. $𝟑.𝟕𝐓 𝐢𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬.

x.com/mohossain/st... #merger #acquisition #deals #privateequity #buyouts M&A #pensionfund #Endowment #valuation #Fed #Interestrate #lp #fund #investor
November 6, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Oct ADP: +42k rebound, yet 3‑mo avg only +3k. Labor trend still fragile. 𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐝’𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐛𝐞𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐫 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬?

#job #unemployment #productivity #economy #fed #interestrates #investment #ennovance
November 6, 2025 at 4:49 AM
🇺🇸 Services revised to 54.8—still growth mode.
✨ 25Q4 GDP 🆙 with consumers showing strength.
💡 All 7 sectors expanding: Financials lead, Healthcare at 13‑mo high, HH spending again.

𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑦 𝑏𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡, 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑡ℎ + 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑠 + 𝐴𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 2026 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑑𝑑𝑠.
November 5, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Private credit’s earnings season doubles as the market’s unofficial stress test.

BDCs are off 14% YTD while the S&P 500’s up 16%, yet the “weak link” narrative hasn’t cracked credit quality yet

Private lenders could replace 15% of traditional fixed-income
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 4, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Private credit fundraising in 2025: Top quartile ≠ fast track. Even the best are waiting 25 months to close. The Fed didn’t just raise rates—it raised the patience premium.

ht: BBG
November 4, 2025 at 6:10 AM
🧨 𝐈𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐈𝐊-𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 𝐃𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝?
📉 Private credit’s “bad PIK” pile is swelling — now seen as a shadow default rate, hitting 6% vs. 2% in 2021. Deferred interest may soon become deferred pain as 40%+ of borrowers show negative cash flow
x.com/mohossain/st...
November 4, 2025 at 5:57 AM
𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐫‑𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬: 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝟏% 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝟗𝟕% 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡

• Percentage of wealth creation accounted for by the best-performing 1% of firms

• Just 3% of companies generated all the net wealth in the US stock market since 1926
x.com/mohossain/st... #monopoly

x.com/mohossain/st...
November 4, 2025 at 5:12 AM
🔥 Buffett’s Apple diet continues: Berkshire quietly shaved another $1.2B off its AAPL stake in Q3. That’s 12 straight quarters of net selling, $6B in fresh cash, and a valuation yardstick he once called “playing with fire” now blazing at all-time highs. 🍎

x.com/mohossain/st...
November 4, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Layoffs make noise, but the labor market’s foundation still holds:

• Jobless claims down to 220K 📉
• Consumer spend +0.8% YoY 💳
• Hospitality payrolls +13.8% 🍽️
• Transport +4.8% 🚚

Erosion at the edges ≠ collapse at the core. Is resilience the most underpriced asset?

x.com/mohossain/st...
November 3, 2025 at 2:20 PM
𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝐴𝑑𝑣𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑓𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑔ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑛𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠.

Behind insurer profit strategies stand real patients…Insurers’ push for “discipline” in slashes benefits and narrows networks, raising the stakes for hospitals

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐌𝐒 𝐬𝐚𝐟𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐝?

x.com/mohossain/st...
November 2, 2025 at 3:49 PM
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 = 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲. 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐝?

'Zombie companies' (earnings < interest) just hit their highest level since early 2022.

easy money era is over,"massive maturity wall"

Are you checking high-leverage firms in healthcare, biotech, old LBOs?

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 2, 2025 at 1:37 AM
𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐊‑𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧:

Free‑money era fueled the 7, but the 493 are learning gravity still applies. Do margins ever lie?

#tech #investor @ennovance
October 31, 2025 at 4:21 PM
📉 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐚 ~𝟔% 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩 𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐧𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓, 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 ~𝟏𝟎%. Coupled with limited federal research funding, the pressure is greatest on graduate education—where higher tuition and research support are helpful for many.

x.com/mohossain/st...
ht:MCO
October 27, 2025 at 1:49 AM
📚 𝐅𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 ~𝟏.𝟓%, 𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫‑𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐥𝐬.

Did you know public colleges and community colleges now account for ~75% of yoy enrollment gains, even as avg tuition revenue per student dips ~1%?

Student loan caps tightening = value

x.com/mohossain/st...
October 27, 2025 at 1:41 AM
𝐀𝐈 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝—𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞.

🇺🇸 has 5,400+ data centers. 10x Germany.
PE’s betting AI won’t just live there—it’ll pay the mortgage and tip the doorman. Overbuild or empire? Stay tuned.

Should we be training AI… or licensing it as Realtor 2.0? 🏢

x.com/mohossain/st...
October 26, 2025 at 5:25 PM
𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐬 “𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠” 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬, 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐛𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 … 𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑠 𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑦 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑡𝑠. 𝑆𝑒𝑚𝑖-𝑙𝑖𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑑, 𝑓𝑒𝑒-ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑣𝑦, 𝐹𝑂𝑀𝑂-𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑑 — it feels more like selling seats on a train that left last Friday. 🚉

📰More via @FT:

x.com/mohossain/st...
October 26, 2025 at 5:03 PM