Urg

Confirmed, geez

ChatGPT-5 is here.

P.S.: Is it telling that joke "rebuttals" of the Apple paper (as co-written by Alex Lawsen and Antropic's Claude) have gone viral as a real rebuttal? Or does this just show that social media users believe what they want to believe?

Actually, I take that back: ChatGPT-o1-mini-high does give the right answer:

Hilarious, Claude 3.7 Sonnett is not faring better:

Hopefully stocks will recover today, but keep in mind: Even if tariffs removed tomorrow, the political uncertainty triggered by the last week will continue to hurt the most innovative firms (startups AND corporations) the most! Lasting damage has been done, even if we don’t see it right away.

The logic behind Trump's trade war: IF we will have a trade-weighted US-$ appreciation (vs China, MEX), THEN (1) US consumer prices will not be affected, (2) tariff revenue will be raised, (3) the depreciation of CHN/MEX currencies means foreigners pay for the tariff revenues.

What is more, you need to prompt ChatGPT-o3-mini to use trade deficits to come up with the formula that was used and even then it warns you about the problems with this approach: that it contradicts standard market-power based logic and that it ignores supply chains and retaliation..

Erza Klein claims in his interview of Paul Krugman that LLMs came up with the 57% tariff on Chinese imports. Not really. When prompted ChatGPT-4.5 proposes a tariff of 20.5%, ChatGPT-o3-mini 13.3% and Claude-3.7 a tariff of 40%... NONE use bilateral trade in their math.

As a result, Mag-7 took a larger-than-average hit during the stock market sell-off today. (6.7% loss instead of 4.5% market-wide loss).

Vote-share for Trump in 2024 grew the fastest in counties with higher share of foreign-born US citizens. When will Dems realize that it is not enough to call your opponent "racist"/"fascist" and call it a campaign?

www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/o...

In case you're wondering: Nvidia and other stock prices are crashing, because it is now questionable whether they will continue profiting from billions in investments if a random Chinese startup can imitate OpenAI at fraction of cost + open source builds credibility on how DeepSeek works..

More evidence of the ongoing HigherEd disruption: In 2024, only 77% of HBS MBA grads accepted a job 3 months after graduation. Strong counter-evidence to the view I often hear that the very top b-schools have a moat against the disruption coming from AI etc.

www.economist.com/business/202...

Merry Christmas, everyone!

Excited to share that I accepted a position at the University of Colorado's Leeds School of Business in their "Strategy, Entrepreneurship and Operations" Division!

www.colorado.edu/business/

Companies have become faster to scale up and reach at least 10,000 employees. As a result VCs are increasingly impatient and push too many potentially disruptive innovations into “blitzscaling” too early. Not all industries are software development!

Graph: Luttmer, 2011, Review of Economic Studies

Part of why China could succeed in leapfrogging the US in solar is related to the fact that more capital investment do predictably translate into more productivity for renewables. This is not necessarily true for all areas of innovation -- including AI!

ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewa...

This Thanksgiving, I am grateful for my amazing family & friends and my inspiring collaborators and colleagues. Happy Thanksgiving, everybody!