Miguel Chanco
@miguelchanco.bsky.social
Chief EM Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics | India and ASEAN | Alumnus of RSIS, NTU | Adopted Brit | via SGP | Est. QC, Philippines
📍Newcastle, UK
📍Newcastle, UK
"Slow burn" if you want me to choose: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... FWIW, we're expecting 6.8% in about 30 mins time.
#India
#India
Q2 GDP blockbuster or slow burn? India braces for Friday show
India Q2 GDP: India's Gross Domestic Product numbers for the second quarter are set to be released on Friday. Expectations are high for a robust growth figure, possibly surpassing the Reserve Bank of ...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:58 AM
"Slow burn" if you want me to choose: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... FWIW, we're expecting 6.8% in about 30 mins time.
#India
#India
Inadvertently getting the fiscal consolidation process back on track due to more hesitant spending post-ICI formation: business.inquirer.net/560351/govt-.... Every cloud has a silver lining, I guess.
#Philippines
#Philippines
Gov’t budget surplus swells in Oct due to weak revenues, spending
Bureau of the Treasury
MANILA, Philippines — The swell in the national government’s October budget surplus masked a softer fiscal picture amid the flood control corruption
business.inquirer.net
November 27, 2025 at 5:28 AM
Inadvertently getting the fiscal consolidation process back on track due to more hesitant spending post-ICI formation: business.inquirer.net/560351/govt-.... Every cloud has a silver lining, I guess.
#Philippines
#Philippines
Thing is, even if #Indonesia is currently growing at around 5.5% this quarter in reality, history suggests that the BPS is unlikely to *print* anything above 5.2%, at most: jakartaglobe.id/business/ind...
Indonesia Expects Q4 GDP to Expand 5.4-5.6%
According to the government's estimates, the travel-related discounts will create around Rp 30 trillion in financial turnover.
jakartaglobe.id
November 27, 2025 at 5:24 AM
Thing is, even if #Indonesia is currently growing at around 5.5% this quarter in reality, history suggests that the BPS is unlikely to *print* anything above 5.2%, at most: jakartaglobe.id/business/ind...
It's almost like they're inviting another round of protests: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202.... Not a good look.
#Indonesia
#Indonesia
Wage-rule delays jolt businesses, rattle investment plans: Apindo - Regulations - The Jakarta Post
Businesses have urged the government to stick to the formula set out under Government Regulation No. 51/2023, which ties wage adjustments to regional economic growth, inflation and an index capturing ...
www.thejakartapost.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:22 AM
It's almost like they're inviting another round of protests: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202.... Not a good look.
#Indonesia
#Indonesia
I'm still all alone (with Moody's) at the bottom of the forecast range for #India's Q3 GDP print tomorrow: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... Expecting a 6.8% out-turn, FWIW.
Despite tariffs, India's Q2 FY26 GDP growth likely at 7.5%, higher than last year: Union Bank Report
India's economy is set for strong growth in the second quarter of the current financial year. GDP is expected to rise 7.5 percent, a significant jump from last year. Private sector activity remains ro...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:17 AM
I'm still all alone (with Moody's) at the bottom of the forecast range for #India's Q3 GDP print tomorrow: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... Expecting a 6.8% out-turn, FWIW.
Reposted by Miguel Chanco
Praise where praise is due: scrapping the two-child benefit cap is an excellent move. And the most consequential of any of the measures announced today.
November 26, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Praise where praise is due: scrapping the two-child benefit cap is an excellent move. And the most consequential of any of the measures announced today.
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#Thailand’s soft October exports mask resurgent US demand" buff.ly/nzu1cKC
November 26, 2025 at 9:27 AM
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#Thailand’s soft October exports mask resurgent US demand" buff.ly/nzu1cKC
A 7.9% call for Friday's GDP release in #India is... for the birds: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... (Apologies to my first ever employer.)
India sees an upward economic growth target revision with a warning on Trump tariffs
India's economic growth target for the fiscal year ending March 2026 is now 6.5 percent. This revision from Fitch-owned BMI comes after positive economic data. However, future growth faces potential c...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 7:01 AM
A 7.9% call for Friday's GDP release in #India is... for the birds: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... (Apologies to my first ever employer.)
Certainly needed, but surely this is the next government's call, no? Not the interim administration: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...
#Thailand
#Thailand
Thailand hurries B480bn in stalled projects to spur growth
The government is betting that speeding up 480 billion baht in stalled investment projects will help support economic momentum as it races to compete with regional peers for foreign capital.
www.bangkokpost.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Certainly needed, but surely this is the next government's call, no? Not the interim administration: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...
#Thailand
#Thailand
Important context regarding the big build-up in consumer credit in #India post-Covid: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....
Household spending in India shifts towards asset-building, motor vehicles fastest-growing durable: PM's Economic Advisory Council
Indian households are spending more on assets like appliances and personal goods, moving away from clothing and footwear. Motor vehicle ownership is growing fast, with urban and rural areas catching u...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Important context regarding the big build-up in consumer credit in #India post-Covid: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's mixed November PMIs don't change the big H2 slowdown story" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...
November 24, 2025 at 2:35 PM
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's mixed November PMIs don't change the big H2 slowdown story" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...
Finally, the September public infra reading - the number that matters and it stinks: business.inquirer.net/559849/govt-...
#Philippines
#Philippines
Gov’t infra spending plummets for 3rd straight month
MANILA, Philippines - Government infrastructure spending plummeted for the third consecutive month in September, falling 42.6 percent amid heightened scrutiny of public works due to the ongoing flood
business.inquirer.net
November 24, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Finally, the September public infra reading - the number that matters and it stinks: business.inquirer.net/559849/govt-...
#Philippines
#Philippines
Sounds like many more heads will roll in the next few weeks: jakartaglobe.id/news/philipp.... This purge will only really matter long term if it's followed by reforms that significantly reduce the incidence of corruption - both low and high level - in the future.
#Philippines
#Philippines
Philippines Detains 7 Corruption Suspects in Flood Control Projects
At least 9,855 flood control projects worth more than 545 billion pesos ($9 billion) are under investigation.
jakartaglobe.id
November 24, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Sounds like many more heads will roll in the next few weeks: jakartaglobe.id/news/philipp.... This purge will only really matter long term if it's followed by reforms that significantly reduce the incidence of corruption - both low and high level - in the future.
#Philippines
#Philippines
For the millionth time, it's a demand-side problem: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202....
#Indonesia
#Indonesia
Loan growth remains sluggish despite Purbaya’s liquidity injection - Economy - The Jakarta Post
Disappointing data on bank lending raises questions about the effectiveness of the Finance Ministry’s Rp 200 trillion (US$12 billion) liquidity injection conducted in early September to jump-start eco...
www.thejakartapost.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:05 AM
For the millionth time, it's a demand-side problem: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202....
#Indonesia
#Indonesia
Lots to like about the long-delayed implementation of #India's new labour codes: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... But it's no silver bullet, structurally. Still one big barrier remains in unlocking the demographic/labour dividend - big agri subsidies keeping workers in this sector.
Labour codes: A game changer for the Indian economy
India's new labour codes aim to simplify regulations, reduce compliance burdens, and enhance worker welfare. These reforms are expected to boost competitiveness by offering greater flexibility in hiri...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Lots to like about the long-delayed implementation of #India's new labour codes: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... But it's no silver bullet, structurally. Still one big barrier remains in unlocking the demographic/labour dividend - big agri subsidies keeping workers in this sector.
We're looking at a December cut for the @RBI, too, the case for which probably will be cemented this Friday, if we're right about Q3 GDP coming in below expectations: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....
#India
#India
RBI faces delicate balancing act as markets bet on a December rate cut
Domestic growth remains solid, with GDP for July–September expected to outpace the RBIs 7% forecast. That strength complicates the central banks messaging. A cut amid strong growth risks signalling co...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:57 AM
We're looking at a December cut for the @RBI, too, the case for which probably will be cemented this Friday, if we're right about Q3 GDP coming in below expectations: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....
#India
#India
We have some minor slippage pencilled in for this FY: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... Forecast currently at 4.5%.
#India
#India
Tax collection may fail to meet target for this fiscal
The government anticipates a slight dip in tax collections this financial year. This is due to recent Goods and Services Tax rate reductions and global economic challenges affecting corporate profits....
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:55 AM
We have some minor slippage pencilled in for this FY: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... Forecast currently at 4.5%.
#India
#India
Not sure what they're hoping to "continue" (economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...). Exports have been bleak in recent months, and it was previously being inflated by front-loading.
#India
#India
Indian exports to continue strong show in H2 FY26: Commerce Ministry
India's exports are set for a strong showing in the rest of FY26. The first half of the fiscal year saw record quarterly exports. This momentum, combined with ongoing government support for exporters,...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Not sure what they're hoping to "continue" (economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...). Exports have been bleak in recent months, and it was previously being inflated by front-loading.
#India
#India
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#BI to make final cut in December then move on to RRRs in 2026" buff.ly/FwZyx1b
November 20, 2025 at 3:10 PM
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#BI to make final cut in December then move on to RRRs in 2026" buff.ly/FwZyx1b
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's record trade deficit in October mainly an import story" buff.ly/YZlozFK
November 19, 2025 at 10:58 AM
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's record trade deficit in October mainly an import story" buff.ly/YZlozFK
I'll save you the click: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... The answer is "shrimp".
#India
#India
How one Indian industry is beating Trump tariffs
India's seafood industry faced a major challenge with US tariffs. However, the sector has shown remarkable strength. By exploring new markets like Australia and Europe, and strengthening ties with Rus...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 5:47 AM
I'll save you the click: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... The answer is "shrimp".
#India
#India